NFL Player Prop Bets: Week 13 (2021)
Once again, I’m using DraftKings Sportsbook for props because of the volume they have to choose from. Still, I suggest that you do some line shopping for more favorable player totals across multiple sportsbooks if you have time. For instance, finding a lower yardage number for a player prop you like enhances your odds of cashing the over. Conversely, if you want an under and find a higher yardage total, the same idea applies.
Let’s take a look at a few player props for Week 13 that caught my attention.
View the best player prop bets for this week’s slate with our NFL Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>
Jonathan Taylor Anytime Touchdown/Colts to win (-150)
The Colts are 10.0-point favorites in a game with an over/under of 44.5 points, yielding an implied total of 27.25 points. So, the spread is an excellent start for the Colts winning, sewing up half of this wager.
In addition, the Colts total pushes a projection of four touchdowns. And, if the Colts hang points like expected, Jonathan Taylor is a great bet to have a hand in doing so. According to Sharp Football Stats, from the 10-yard line or closer to scoring, the Colts rush at a 58% clip. As a result, according to the FantasyPros red zone stats, Taylor has 31 carries and a reception inside the 10, punching in 10 touchdowns.
Finally, Taylor has the long speed to score from anywhere on the field, evidenced by ripping off the longest run in 2021 (83 yards) and a 76-yard reception to boot. Taylor scored two touchdowns when the Colts trounced the Texans 31-3 in Week 6. In addition to this bet, Taylor scoring two or more touchdowns is also enticing.
Antonio Gibson Over 96.5 Rushing Plus Receiving Yards (-115)
Antonio Gibson is another second-year back with a prop that catches my eye. Pass-catching backfield mate J.D. McKissic is ruled out for Sunday. Thus, I expect Gibson to bolster his usual primary ball-carrier role with most of McKissic’s vacated receiving work.
The Football Team has been on a three-game winning streak since their Week 9 bye. Probably not coincidentally, the winning streak coincides with force-feeding Gibson. The sophomore running back has touch totals of 26, 19, and 36 during the winning streak. In those contests, he’s piled up 78, 95, and 146 scrimmage yards.
Unfortunately, that means he’s gone over his 96.5 yards prop just one time in that stretch. Nevertheless, an increased role in the passing attack is optimal for him, surpassing that mark this week.
Additionally, the matchup is good. According to Football Outsiders, the Raiders are 17th in rush defense Defense-adjusted Value Over Average, and 25th in pass defense DVOA. Also, according to Pro-Football-Reference, Las Vegas allows the 13th-most rushing yards and 15th-most receiving yards (448) to the position, resulting in a whopping 140.91 scrimmage yards per game coughed up to running backs. Thus, I expect Gibson to fly over his yardage prop in a potential bell-cow role.
George Kittle Anytime Touchdown (+140)
Deebo Samuel is out, removing one of San Francisco’s premier offensive players from the equation this weekend. Regarding touchdowns specifically, Samuel has reached paydirt 10 times this season. As a result, he’ll vacate four targets and four rushes from inside the 10-yard line this season.
Meanwhile, George Kittle has three targets inside the 10-yard line in only eight games, converting them into touchdowns. Also, while Kyle Shanahan is often lauded for his elite rushing attacks, you might be surprised to learn about the 49ers’ tendencies in scoring territory.
According to Sharp Football Stats, 10 yards from scoring or closer, San Francisco passes at the seventh-highest rate (53% versus 47% for the league average). So, Kittle should be an attractive target for Jimmy Garoppolo in scoring territory. Finally, the Seahawks are tied for the ninth-most touchdowns (five) allowed to tight ends this year, and Kittle is in rarified air at the position.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.