NFL Player Prop Bets: Week 15 (2021)
Once again, I'm using DraftKings Sportsbook for props because of the volume they have to choose from. Still, I suggest that you do some line shopping for more favorable player totals across multiple sportsbooks if you have time. For instance, finding a lower yardage number for a player prop you like enhances your odds of cashing the over. Conversely, if you want an under and find a higher yardage total, the same idea applies.
Let's take a look at a few player props for Week 15 that caught my attention.
View the best player prop bets for this week's slate with our NFL Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>
Laquon Treadwell Over 2.5 Receptions (-175)
Obviously, it’s unclear how interim coach Darrell Bevell will handle Jacksonville’s offense and personnel, taking over for canned head coach Urban Meyer. However, Laquon Treadwell has done his part to remain an integral part of the offense.
According to Pro Football Focus, since Week 12, Treadwell has been second for the Jaguars in routes (102), tied for first in targets (19) and receptions (12), and first in receiving yards (183). In addition, he’s played at an above-average level from a league-wide view as well. Among 72 receivers targeted at least 10 times since Week 12, Treadwell has been 28th in yards per route run (1.79 Y/RR).
Further, his receiving yardage total has climbed to new season-high marks each of the last three weeks while he’s hauled in precisely four receptions in each contest. Thus, he’s gaining steam rather than stagnating. Finally, Treadwell has a great matchup this week. According to Pro Football Focus, Treadwell has the 15th-largest matchup advantage against the cornerbacks he projects to face in coverage. As a result, I expect Treadwell to reel in more than 2.5 receptions, and FantasyPros projects him to snag 3.1 receptions.
Chuba Hubbard Under 43.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
In a close game last week, the Panthers ultimately lost by eight points. Chuba Hubbard toted the rock only 10 times for 33 yards against the Falcons’ below-average run defense. According to the snap counts at FantasyPros, Hubbard played only 39% of Carolina’s offensive snaps. Further, according to Football Outsiders, the Falcons are 23rd in rush defense Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
The situation is less optimal for Hubbard this week. According to the Betting Pros consensus, the Bills are whopping 13-point favorites. Additionally, the Bills are eighth in rush defense DVOA. Unless the Panthers surprisingly hang around, Hubbard will likely cede playing time to pass-catching back Ameer Abdullah. Finally, after last week’s 33-yard showing in a better matchup, I’m confident in the Bills bottling him up for fewer than 43.5 rushing yards.
Nico Collins anytime touchdown/Houston to win (+850)
I haven’t landed on an eye-catching longshot bet in a few weeks. However, I’m enamored with Nico Collins scoring a touchdown and the Texans pulling off a mild upset as 4.5-point underdogs against a fellow bad AFC South opponent. The Jaguars are certainly motivated to play well with Meyer kicked to the curb. Still, they’re not particularly talented and rank 31st in pass defense DVOA.
Meanwhile, Collins is coming off his best game in his rookie season. The former Michigan Wolverine tied his season-high for playing time (70% of Houston’s offensive snaps), setting season highs for routes (43), targets (10), receptions (five), and receiving yards (69).
The outburst is promising for a growing role in Houston’s rebuilding offense with rookie starting quarterback Davis Mills. Mills is starting the rest of the year, and he’s thrown 20 passes in the red zone so far. Unfortunately, he’s yet to connect with Collins for a touchdown. However, the big-bodied rookie receiver has earned two red-zone targets from Mills. Moreover, both red-zone targets have been from the 10-yard line or closer to scoring. I don’t advise making a large wager since this is a long shot. Still, this is the type of bet I hunt for as a recreational gambler that likes to have a chance for a decent payday on a small wager.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.