NFL Player Prop Bets: Week 16 (2021)
Once again, I’m using DraftKings Sportsbook for props because of the volume they have to choose from. Still, I suggest that you do some line shopping for more favorable player totals across multiple sportsbooks if you have time. For instance, finding a lower yardage number for a player prop you like enhances your odds of cashing the over. Conversely, if you want an under and find a higher yardage total, the same idea applies.
Let’s take a look at a few player props for Christmas that caught my attention.
View the best player prop bets for this week’s slate with our NFL Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>
Tee Higgins Over 4.5 Receptions (-130)
The Bengals took it easy on Joe Burrow out of the chute, easing him back from last year’s season-ending knee injury. However, according to Sharp Football Stats, since Week 5, when the offensive scoring margin is between trailing by seven points and leading by seven points, Cincinnati passes at the ninth-highest rates (60% versus a 56% average).
Furthermore, they may crank up the passing attack more this week in a better matchup for Cinci’s passing attack than the ground game. According to Football Outsiders, the Ravens are fifth in rush defense Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) and 25th in pass defense DVOA. So, it behooves them to pick on Baltimore’s injury-ravaged secondary. In addition, it was a formula for success in a 41-17 win over the Ravens in Week 7, attempting 38 passes compared to only 24 rush attempts.
In the first meeting, Tee Higgins was targeted an obscene 15 times, reeling in seven receptions for 62 yards. That game was one of seven times in 12 contests that Higgins caught at least five passes this year. Higgins is a target hog, evidenced by ranking 24th in target share (21.6%), per Sports Info Solutions. As a result, the projections at FantasyPros call for Higgins to haul in 5.0 receptions, putting him over his prop of 4.5 receptions.
Michael Carter Under 44.5 Rushing Yards (-120)
Michael Carter was back from the Injured Reserve last week. Unfortunately, he jumped back into a muddied running-back-by-committee situation. According to the snap counts at FantasyPros, Carter led the backfield with a 54% snap share, followed by Tevin Coleman with a 37% snap share, and Austin Walter was playing 11% of the offensive snaps. Further, none of Gang Green’s running backs reached double-digit rush attempts, with Carter and Coleman tying for the team-high mark with eight carries, and Walter chipped in a pair of rushes.
Carter was limited to only 18 rushing yards last week. In 11 games, the rookie running back has rushed for more than 44.5 yards only three times. Beyond Carter, it’s not a suboptimal situation for gaining rushing yards. First, the Jaguars are 14th in rush defense DVOA. Second, according to Football Outsiders, the Jets are 23d in Adjusted Line Yards. Finally, the Jets pass at an above-average rate (58% versus 57%) when the offensive scoring margin is between trailing by seven points and leading by seven points. I’ll take Carter’s under with so many things stacked against him.
Cameron Brate Anytime Touchdown/Tampa Bay to Win (+450)
Our consensus line lists the Buccaneers as 10.0-point favorites and -450 moneyline favorites against the hapless Panthers. Even with multiple vital injuries on Tampa Bay’s offense, they should beat their NFC South foes. So, that puts one end of this wager to bed.
In addition, Tampa Bay’s implied total is 26.5 points, suggesting they’ll put the ball in the end zone a few times. Near the end zone, Cameron Brate has been regularly targeted. According to the red zone stats at FantasyPros, Brate is tied for the third-most red-zone targets (17) among tight ends. He’s been a favorite of Tom Brady’s, despite a plethora of talented alternatives. Now, the team is without Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, and Leonard Fournette, paving the way for others such as Brate to garner more red-zone looks.
Additionally, Brady takes to the air in the red zone frequently. According to Sharp Football Stats, Tampa Bay passes at the second-highest rate (64%), a whopping 12% above the league average. So, this looks like a reasonable wager at a tempting +450 line, and it only takes a small bet to collect a rock-solid payout if it comes to fruition.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.