NFL Player Prop Bets: Week 17 (2021)
Once again, I’m using DraftKings Sportsbook for props because of the volume they have to choose from. Still, I suggest that you do some line shopping for more favorable player totals across multiple sportsbooks if you have time. For instance, finding a lower yardage number for a player prop you like enhances your odds of cashing the over. Conversely, if you want an under and find a higher yardage total, the same idea applies.
Let’s take a look at a few player props for Week 17 that caught my attention.
View the best player prop bets for this week’s slate with our NFL Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>
A.J. Green Longest Reception Over 20.5 Yards (-120)
I thought A.J. Green was totally washed-up entering 2021. However, a fresh start with the Cardinals has allowed him to contribute meaningfully. Namely, he has done damage as a vertical option in Arizona’s passing attack.
First, according to Sports Info Solutions, among players targeted at least 50 times this year, Green has had the 28th-deepest average depth of target (12.2). Second, according to Pro Football Focus, Green’s 11 receptions on 20-plus yard passes are tied for the fourth-most in 2021.
Additionally, the matchup is excellent for big plays. According to Sharp Football Stats, the Cowboys have allowed the sixth-highest average explosive pass rate (10%). Further, there should be a lot of plays run for both teams. According to Football Outsiders, the Cardinals have played at the sixth-fastest situation neutral pace, and the Cowboys have played at the fastest situation neutral pace. As a result, I expect quite a few big plays in a back-and-forth affair, and Green is a good bet to have a hand in making big plays.
Brandin Cooks Over 65.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Brandin Cooks is back from a one-game absence on the reserve/COVID-19 list in an excellent matchup. The 49ers have yielded the seventh-highest average explosive pass rate (nine percent), and they struggle defending receivers. According to Pro-Football-Reference, San Francisco allows the ninth-most receiving yards (2,479) to wideouts. Moreover, they’re wholly inept against the opposition’s top wideout.
Thankfully, Cooks is the no-doubt top receiver for the Texans. Starting quarterback Davis Mills has attempted 329 passes this year, directing a team-high 82 (24.9% target share) to Cooks for team-leading marks in receptions (59), receiving yards (644), and air yards (850).
Thus, I expect him to be the latest No. 1 receiver to carve up San Fransisco’s secondary. Thankfully, FantasyPros agrees. Their projection algorithm projects Cooks for 72.6 receiving yards.
Ronald Jones Anytime Touchdown/Tampa Bay to Win (+110)
The Buccaneers are 13.0-point favorites and -800 moneyline favorites against the hapless Jets. In addition, the game’s over/under is 45.5 points, leaving the Bucs with a robust implied total of 29.25 points. So, I like the Bucs’ odds of winning and scoring touchdowns in bunches.
If they win, that leaves only Ronald Jones II needing to punch it in for this wager to be a winner. Last week, Jones toted the rock 20 times, rushing for 65 yards and a touchdown. Interestingly, according to Pro Football Focus, he also ran nine routes and played 14 passing snaps versus 15 passing snaps and 11 routes for Ke’Shawn Vaughn. So, if Jones can continue to split receiving work and Le’Veon Bell doesn’t crowd the situation further, Jones has a path to scoring as a receiver too.
However, expect Jones to punch it in on the ground. An excellent run-blocking offensive line aids him. According to Football Outsiders, the Bucs are fifth in stuffed rank and Adjusted Line Yards and second in power rank. Their excellence in creating yardage, generating power runs, and avoiding stuffed plays will play well at the goal-line against Gang Green. The Jets have allowed the most rushing touchdowns (22) to running backs this year, enhancing the incentive for the Bucs to put the ball in Jones’ breadbasket around the goal-line. As a result, I love getting a small plus line on Jones scoring a touchdown and Tampa Bay winning.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.