NFL Player Prop Bets: Week 18 Saturday Contests (2021)
Once again, I’m using DraftKings Sportsbook for props because of the volume they have to choose from. Still, I suggest that you do some line shopping for more favorable player totals across multiple sportsbooks if you have time. For instance, finding a lower yardage number for a player prop you like enhances your odds of cashing the over. Conversely, if you want an under and find a higher yardage total, the same idea applies.
Let’s take a look at a few player props for Week 18’s Saturday slate that caught my attention.
View the best player prop bets for this week’s slate with our NFL Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>
Jerry Jeudy Under 3.5 Receptions (-165)
The Denver Broncos are out of the playoff picture, but the Kansas City Chiefs are motivated to win. They were torched by Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals’ receivers last week. However, Drew Lock and Denver’s pass-catchers aren’t in the same stratosphere, and Kansas City’s likely anxious to rebound.
Lock has made two starts for the Broncos this year, attempting 22 passes in a four-point loss in Week 16 and 25 passes in a 21-point loss last week. Clearly, Denver isn’t letting their third-year quarterback cut it loose. Further, they play at a slow pace. According to Football Outsiders, the Broncos are 26th in situation-neutral pace.
The context for Jerry Jeudy making a splash in the passing attack is poor before accounting for the glut of talent he’s competing with for targets. According to Pro Football Focus, from Week 12 through Week 16, Jeudy was third on the Broncos in routes (126), trailing Courtland Sutton (143) and Tim Patrick (137). As a result, Jeudy netted underwhelming marks of 22 targets, 14 receptions, and 209 receiving yards. Furthermore, Jeudy exceeded 3.5 receptions in that five-game stretch only two times, and he hasn’t done so in his previous two games. As a result, FantasyPros projects Jeudy for only 3.1 receptions. So, let’s get some action on his under.
Darrel Williams Over 57.5 Rushing Yards (-120)
Darrel Williams will make his seventh start on Saturday night. He surpassed 57.5 rushing yards in three of his six starts in 2021, including rumbling for 88 yards last week. Thankfully, the matchup is good for Williams winning this coin flip, eclipsing 57.5 rushing yards this week.
According to Football Outsiders, the Broncos are 22nd in rush defense Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). Moreover, they earned that underwhelming mark while staying in the playoff chase most of the year, lending credibility to the possibility they underperform in a meaningless game against a motivated team that’s great at run blocking.
According to Football Outsiders, the Chiefs are eighth in Adjusted Line Yards, sixth in Stuffed Rank, and fourth in Power Rank. In addition, Pro Football Focus is even more fond of Kansas City’s run blocking, grading them as the third-best run-blocking team this season.
Finally, the Chiefs are 10.5-point favorites, creating the perfect game script for Williams as a runner if the game goes according to the betting market.
Darrel Williams Anytime Touchdown/Kansas City to Win (+115)
I’m sticking with Williams and the Chiefs in another prop. Obviously, I expect the heavily-favored and motivated Chiefs to dispatch their division foe while chasing the No. 1 seed in the AFC. As 10.5-point favorites in a game with an over/under of 44.5 points, the Chiefs have a tasty implied total of 27.5 points. As a result, they should splash pay dirt plenty of times.
Williams isn’t a stranger to the end zone. In his six starts, he’s scored five touchdowns, reaching pay dirt in three games. Meanwhile, Denver’s allowed 10 touchdowns to running backs this year. Thus, they’re not impenetrable. Finally, given Kansas City’s elite Power and Stuffed Ranks noted above, I like their odds of generating a push to get Williams into the end zone.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.