NFL Player Prop Bets: Week 6 (2021)
Once again, I’m using DraftKings Sportsbook for props because of the volume they have to choose from. Still, I suggest that you do some line shopping for more favorable player totals across multiple sportsbooks if you have time. For instance, finding a lower yardage number for a player prop you like enhances your odds of cashing the over. Conversely, if you want an under and find a higher yardage total, the same idea applies.
Let’s take a look at a few player props for Week 6 that caught my attention.
View the best player prop bets for this week’s slate with our NFL Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>
Dan Arnold over 37.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
I struggled last week, but Dan Arnold delivered for me. So I’m going back to the well with him again this week. As I expected, after playing a modest role in the Week 4 Thursday Night Football game only three days after joining the Jaguars via trade, his role expanded significantly in Week 5.
According to Pro Football Focus, Arnold played the second-most passing snaps (34) and ran the second-most routes (30) in Week 5. Additionally, he demonstrated versatility, aligning wide six times, inline 11 times, and in the slot 17 times.
Thankfully, Arnold’s promising usage is only the tip of the iceberg, as his surface stats were excellent as well. The fourth-year pro tied for the team lead in receptions (six), leading Jacksonville in targets (eight) and receiving yards (64).
This week, he faces a below-average pass defense that’s mid-pack, allowing yardage to tight ends. According to Football Outsiders, the Dolphins rank 23rd in pass defense Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). Further, according to Pro-Football-Reference, Miami’s coughed up 252 receiving yards on 24 receptions to tight ends. Thus, the FantasyPros’ projections expect Arnold to surpass his receiving yardage prop, projecting 40.4 receiving yards this week.
Ricky Seals-Jones over 38.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Ricky Seals-Jones is another pass-catching tight end that fits the modern mold of a borderline oversized receiver rather than the traditional inline tight end. Sometimes when a starter goes down, the direct backup doesn’t inherit the same role. Thankfully, with Logan Thomas out, Seals-Jones is essentially serving in the same role.
Among tight ends in Week 5, Seals-Jones ranked second in passing snaps (53) and routes (42), aligning wide seven times, inline eight times, and in the slot 35 times. As a result of receiver-like usage, he ranked third on the team in Week 5 in receiving yards (41), second in targets (nine), and first in receptions (five). Now, Terry McLaurin is dealing with a hamstring injury that head coach Ron Rivera is downplaying the significance of. Nevertheless, the team might need others such as Seals-Jones to step up and ease the load for the club’s top pass-catcher.
Further, the projected game script and matchup bode well for Seals-Jones’ outlook for surpassing his 38.5 receiving yards prop. Betting Pros consensus lists the Football Team as 6.5-point underdogs this week. So, Washington’s likely going to play in catch-up mode. Also, even if that’s not the case, their offense will need to keep up with Kansas City’s high-octane offense in a game featuring two of the league’s worst defenses. The Football Team ranks 28th in defense DVOA, and the Chiefs rank dead last.
In addition, this game should be played at an above-average pace. According to Football Outsiders, Washington’s playing at the seventh-fastest situation neutral pace, and Kansas City is 15th. Therefore, the conditions are suitable for a back-and-forth shootout. As a result, FantasyPros projects Seals-Jones for 41.6 receiving yards this week. So, let’s take another yardage over for a pass-catching tight end.
Ezekiel Elliott Score Two or More Touchdowns (+400)
Finally, let’s add a longshot bet to the mix. As a recreational gambler, bets with long odds requiring a small wager for a decent payout are my jam. The Cowboys are 3.5-point road favorites in a game with an over/under of 50.5 points, resulting in an implied team total of 27.0 points for the Cowboys. Still, I’m even more bullish on their outlook this week.
Thus, I’m expecting Dallas to score four or more touchdowns. If that comes to fruition, Ezekiel Elliott is capable of splashing paydirt two or more times. According to the red zone stats at FantasyPros, Dak Prescott has attempted seven passes inside the 10-yard line and five inside the five-yard line. Meanwhile, Zeke has rushed six times from inside the 10 and five times inside the five. Further, Tony Pollard has only two attempts inside the 10 and one inside the five.
The usage is excellent for Elliott’s touchdown potential. However, the matchup is the icing on the cake. The Patriots rank eighth in pass defense DVOA and 22nd in rush defense DVOA. Conversely, the Cowboys rank first in Adjusted Line Yards, and Pro Football Focus grades them as the best run-blocking offense. So, this is a considerable mismatch favoring the Cowboys, enhancing the incentive to feed Zeke in scoring territory. I don’t suggest placing a large wager because of the longshot nature of this bet. Still, it’s a line that stands out to me as worthy of sprinkling a little something on.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.