NFL Player Prop Bets: Week 9 (2021)
Once again, I’m using DraftKings Sportsbook for props because of the volume they have to choose from. Still, I suggest that you do some line shopping for more favorable player totals across multiple sportsbooks if you have time. For instance, finding a lower yardage number for a player prop you like enhances your odds of cashing the over. Conversely, if you want an under and find a higher yardage total, the same idea applies.
Let’s take a look at a few player props for Week 9 that caught my attention.
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Ezekiel Elliott Anytime Scorer (-150)
According to the Betting Pros consensus, the Dallas Cowboys are 10.0-point favorites in a game with an over/under of 49.0 points against the visiting Denver Broncos. Therefore the Cowboys have a tantalizing implied total of 29.5 points. I’m inclined to agree with the betting info, expecting them to hang a handful of touchdowns on Denver’s wilting defense.
Using Football Outsiders’ Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), the Broncos are worse against the run than the pass, ranking 27th in the former and 21st in the latter. Additionally, the Cowboys are elite blocking for the run. According to Pro Football Focus, they grade first for run blocking. In addition, according to Football Outsiders, Dallas ranks first in Adjusted Line Yards and third in Stuffed Rank.
Finally, Ezekiel Elliott’s numbers in scoring territory put the nail in the coffin for selecting him to score a touchdown anytime. According to the red zone stats at FantasyPros, inside the five-yard line, Zeke has nine carries and three receptions on three targets, yielding four rushing touchdowns and one receiving touchdowns. Elliott’s nine carries and three targets account for 12 of the 20 plays the Cowboys have run inside the five. Therefore, he’s the offense’s focal point when they’re that close to the end zone. In addition, the Broncos have faced six rushes inside the five, coughing up four rushing touchdowns. So, I love Elliott’s odds of scoring a touchdown this week.
Damien Harris Over 68.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
The New England Patriots are 3.5-points against the host Carolina Panthers, and the hosts are more beatable on the ground than through the air. So, it stands to reason offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels would prefer to rush against a defense that ranks 19th in rush defense DVOA and sixth in pass defense DVOA as long as the game script will allow him to do so. Since I agree with the Patriots being favored, that means I expect them to run right out of the gates and continue to do so all game.
Further, that’s New England’s preferred tendency when tied or leading over the last four weeks anyway. From Week 5 through Week 8, under those offensive scoring margin parameters, the Patriots have run at the sixth-highest rate (51%), according to Sharp Football Stats.
Predictably, Harris has excelled during that four-game stretch, rushing for 58 yards, 101, 106, and 80. Thus, I expect him to keep rolling this week. Additionally, FantasyPros’ projections support taking Harris’s rushing yardage over as well, projecting him for 73.4 rushing yards in Week 9.
Trevor Lawrence Over 1.5 Interceptions (+170)
I don’t always find a wager with plus odds I like, but this fits the bill as one that I do. Last week, Gabriel Davis bailed out two incorrect picks at +400 to score a touchdown. This week, I don’t love any large longshot. Nonetheless, +170 is a juicy line.
The Jacksonville Jaguars are 14.5-point underdogs against the visiting Buffalo Bills. So, they’re likely to be in catch-up mode for a lot of the game. That’s bad news for Trevor Lawrence, as he’ll have his handful against Buffalo’s elite pass defense.
The Bills rank first in pass defense DVOA. However, their excellence doesn’t end there. According to Pro-Football-Reference, the Bills are tied for first in interceptions (11) and lead in pressure rate (31.7%). Further, Pro Football Focus grades the Bills first in coverage. So, this is a nightmare matchup for Lawrence, suffice to say.
Meanwhile, the rookie quarterback’s 12 turnover-worthy plays are tied for the third-most this year. Predictably, putting the ball in harm’s way has resulted in ample interceptions for Lawrence. In fact, he’s tied for the second-most interceptions (nine) thrown this year. I expect the Bills to race out to a large lead, pin their ears back on defense, and pressure Lawrence into multiple interceptions.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.