NFL Player Prop Bets: Wild Card Sunday (2021)
Once again, I’m using DraftKings Sportsbook for props because of the volume they have to choose from. Still, I suggest that you do some line shopping for more favorable player totals across multiple sportsbooks if you have time. For instance, finding a lower yardage number for a player prop you like enhances your odds of cashing the over. Conversely, if you want an under and find a higher yardage total, the same idea applies.
Let’s take a look at a few player props for Wild Card Sunday that caught my attention.
View the best player prop bets for this week’s slate with our NFL Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>
Ezekiel Elliott Under 69.5 Rushing Plus Receiving Yards (-115)
All Ezekiel Elliott needed to turn around his mid and late-season swoon was facing Philadelphia’s backups, and Tony Pollard was sitting out in Week 18. So, I’ll summarily dismiss his 90 scrimmage yards last week as a fluke. This week, he has a brutal matchup.
According to Football Outsiders, the 49ers are second in rush defense Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). Predictably, they’ve terrorized running backs. According to Pro-Football-Reference, they allowed the seventh-fewest rushing yards (1,303) to running backs at a putrid 3.57 yards per rush attempt. Interestingly, the sledding was tough for running backs in the passing game, too. San Francisco yielded the ninth-fewest receiving yards (551) to backs in 2021.
Having said that, Zeke was relatively quiet in the passing game down the stretch. He was held to two or fewer receptions in five of his last six games, sporting a high of only 20 receiving yards during that stretch. Finally, Elliott had fewer than 69.5 scrimmage yards in seven of his eight games before the Week 18 outburst. Thankfully, the projections at FantasyPros support taking the under, projecting Zeke for only 67.1 scrimmage yards.
Ben Roethlisberger Longest Completion Under 33.5 Yards (-110)
Ben Roethlisberger’s arm is shot. Further, that’s not an anecdotal statement; it’s quantifiable by his late-season nosedive in explosive passing plays. In the last four weeks of the regular season, Big Ben’s longest pass was 25 yards in the season finale against the Ravens. In Week 16 in Kansas City, he had a long pass of only 24 yards against this week’s opponent.
Sadly, Big Ben’s incompetence is more comical than his pathetic long pass marks in the final four games of the regular season. According to Pro Football Focus, out of 30 quarterbacks with at least 400 dropbacks, Roethlisberger’s time to throw of 2.27 seconds is easily the fastest. In other words, he’s unwilling to hold the ball to let plays develop downfield. Unsurprisingly, he’s not taking many shots downfield. According to Pro Football Focus, out of 39 quarterbacks with at least 15 pass attempts of 20-plus yards, Roethlisberger’s deep-pass attempt percentage (10.4%) is 26th. Moreover, his 30.2% completion rate on those passes is 31st. Big Ben is toast, and the Chiefs are a challenging matchup for generating explosive passes.
According to Sharp Football Stats, from Week 10 through the end of the regular season, the Chiefs allowed the sixth-lowest average explosive pass rate (six percent). But, obviously, a blown coverage or some other comedy of errors can lead to a flukey play. Regardless, barring a fluke, the under is a mouthwatering wager.
Rob Gronkowski Two or More Touchdowns (+500)
Rob Gronkowski was great this year, and he has a dreamy matchup in the postseason against the Eagles. Tom Brady’s longtime running mate is one of his favorite options in the red zone. In the 11 games Gronk played the majority of the offensive snaps (thus, tossing out his six-snap showing in Week 8), the stud tight end’s 11 targets in the red zone were tied for the fourth-most on the team. However, his five touchdown receptions were second to only Mike Evans’ seven. In addition, Chris Godwin tied for the team-high with 13 targets, also vacating three touchdowns.
Moreover, Gronk became a bigger target hog closer to scoring. Inside the 10-yard line in his 11 healthy games, Gronk tied for the team lead with six targets. Predictably, Evans tied him for the top honors. However, the sledding is much more challenging for Evans than Gronk this week. The Eagles tied for the fifth-fewest receiving touchdowns (12) allowed to wideouts. However, they coughed up the most receiving touchdowns (14) to tight ends.
Additionally, Gronk scored all of his touchdowns in pairs this year, catching two in Week 1, Week 2, and Week 13. Finally, the Buccaneers are 8.5-point favorites in a game with an over/under of 45.5 points, resulting in an implied total of 27.0 points for the hosts. Thus, the betting market projects the Bucs to reach pay dirt a few times. Obviously, based on the betting odds, this is a longshot wager. As such, I don’t suggest going overboard with your bet. Nevertheless, it’s a longshot that doesn’t take any squinting to see bearing fruit. So, I’ll sprinkle something on this wager.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.