NFL Playoff Survivor Pool Advice: Divisional Round
Many of those in playoff survivor pools could not have liked how the Wild Card round played out. The two biggest favorites on the board (Patriots and Saints) both lost outright, sending home two of the most talented quarterbacks to ever play the game. There are surely plenty of forward-thinkers who took the Texans while fading Josh Allen in his first playoff start. In addition, the Seahawks seemed ripe for a win given all the Eagles’ injuries, though no one could have predicted Carson Wentz getting knocked out in the first quarter.
Just like in the regular season, our column will outline the following categories: Safest Picks, Riskier Plays That Will Be Popular, and the Picks to Stay Far Away From. Even though survivor pool rules say you cannot pick the same team twice, I will outline all scenarios in case bettors wish to navigate their own path.
Here is a list of odds for all the favorites to win their matchups in the Divisional round (odds courtesy of FanDuel).
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| TEAM | ODDS |
| Baltimore Ravens | -420 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | -420 |
| San Francisco 49ers | -270 |
| Green Bay Packers | -200 |
Safest Picks
Kansas City Chiefs (-420)
The Chiefs-Texans game is the only game in the Divisional Round that is a rematch of a game played in the regular season. In Week 6, the Texans went into Arrowhead and beat the Chiefs 31-24. Then why the love for Kansas City this week? First off, Chiefs coach Andy Reid is phenomenal off a bye week. His teams are 18-3 in games after a bye, including an 11-1 home record dating back to his time with the Eagles. Second, Patrick Mahomes was badly hobbled with an ankle injury in the first meeting, yet he still threw for three touchdowns. The Chiefs only attempted 11 runs in that game, and one would think they will find much more offensive balance in the rematch.
The Chiefs’ defense has looked like an entirely different unit of late. After allowing 23.9 PPG in their first ten games, they allowed just 11.5 PPG in the final six games. Their rush defense also improved, allowing only 95 YPG during the six-game stretch. The Texans, meanwhile, have the worst defense of any remaining team in the playoffs. They allowed 33 passing touchdowns this year, which was fourth-most in the league. That is not a good recipe against a Patrick Mahomes-led team with an exorbitant amount of weapons. The Texans were able to dig out of a huge second-half hole and prevail against Buffalo. If they get down early this week, they will not be so lucky on the road in a hostile environment.
Riskier Plays That Will Be Popular
Baltimore Ravens (-420), San Francisco 49ers (-270)
Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens enter the playoffs on a 12-game winning streak. They had a 4-1 record against playoff teams this year, and are the NFL’s highest-scoring offense at 33.2 PPG. However, one way to neutralize a high-powered offense is to keep them off the field with a ball-control offense. Tennessee held the ball for 31 minutes against the Patriots and attempted 40 runs compared to 16 passes. If they can stay close early, there is no doubt Titans coach Mike Vrabel will lean on All-Pro running back Derrick Henry once again.
More reason for skepticism is the uncertain health of Ravens running back Mark Ingram. When Ingram last played, he left their Week 16 win over the Browns with a calf injury. Ingram declared he is 100%, but any limitations whatsoever from this injury would put a damper on their league-leading rushing attack. There is no doubt the Ravens should win this game, but I would take my chances with the Chiefs as the more confident pick.
San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco will be another popular pick this week. The 49ers were likely expecting to play their divisional rival Seattle Seahawks for the third time this year. However, the Vikings beat the Saints as the sixth seed, so they welcome Kirk Cousins and the rest of the Vikings to Levi’s Stadium. The Vikings’ win over the Saints was their first road playoff win in 15 years. Also working against them is the fact that Minnesota has lost nine of their last ten games in San Francisco.
What makes this game a risky play is that the Vikings should be able to find success on the ground. The 49ers finished the regular season ranked 17th in rush defense, allowing 112.6 YPG. Dalvin Cook looked fresh after missing the last two games. He ran for 94 yards and two touchdowns, while also catching three passes for 36 yards. Kirk Cousins took a big step last week in shredding the label as a quarterback who cannot win a big game. Does he have another big game performance up his sleeve this week?
Picks to Stay Far Away From
Green Bay Packers (-200)
Though the Packers went 13-3 this year, they were hardly ever mentioned in the conversation of the NFC’s elite teams. They ranked in the bottom half of the league this year (18th) in terms of YPG at 345.5. Aaron Rodgers finished ranked 20th in total QBR, and at times, he looked like a shell of the Pro-Bowl quarterback we have been amazed at throughout his career.
Green Bay hosts a Seattle team that knows how to win on the road. The Seahawks improved to 8-1 on the road this year, and they certainly have the pedigree to take down the Packers. Seattle would like to improve upon its running game to have more of a chance at Lambeau this week. Against the Eagles, Russell Wilson was the team’s leading rusher after running backs Travis Homer and Marshawn Lynch combined for 19 yards on 17 carries. If the Seahawks can protect Russell Wilson against a fierce Green Bay pass rush, they are certainly capable of pulling yet another road upset.
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.