NFL Playoff Survivor Pool Advice: Wild Card Round
Congratulations to all of you who won your survivor pools this year! It was a very tricky year, with landmines and upsets seemingly popping up every week. Many of you could keep playing some version of a survivor pool into the playoffs, so we are back to provide our advice.
Just like in the regular season, our column will outline the following categories: Safest Picks, Riskier Plays That Will Be Popular, and the Picks to Stay Far Away From. Even though survivor pool rules say you cannot pick the same team twice, I will outline all scenarios in case bettors wish to navigate their own path.
Here is a list of odds for all the favorites to win their matchups in the Wild Card round (odds courtesy of FanDuel).
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| TEAM | ODDS |
| New Orleans Saints | -390 |
| New England Patriots | -225 |
| Houston Texans | -148 |
| Seattle Seahawks | -132 |
Safest Picks
New Orleans Saints (-390)
It’s much easier to identify a "safe pick" in the regular season, as there are always inferior teams playing the league's powerhouses. It gets much harder in the playoffs, as all teams are worthy of respect. However, the Saints appear as the likeliest "lock" of the opening weekend. Their offense has been on fire of late, averaging 40 PPG over their last four games. They historically have had a huge home-field advantage in the Superdome, though they did lose two games there this year. New Orleans is a trendy Super Bowl pick of many, and it is hard to argue against them. Despite losing future Hall of Famer Drew Brees for five games, they still went 5-0 in his absence en route to a 13-3 overall record.
The Saints are a complete team, more than just an offensive juggernaut. They ended the regular season ranked 11th in total defense and fourth against the run. They allow just 91.3 rushing YPG, which bodes well against a Vikings team that likes to pound the rock. Vikings running back Dalvin Cook should be back after missing the last two games, but will find it tough sledding against the stout front of New Orleans.
The last time we saw the Vikings in a meaningful game, they were dominated by the Packers in their own building. Minnesota's offensive line could not keep Green Bay's front four out of the backfield, and they managed just seven first downs all game. The knock against Kirk Cousins has been his inability to win the big game. On a weekend with just four games, the Saints are the likeliest favorite to come out on top.
Riskier Plays That Will Be Popular
New England Patriots (-225), Seattle Seahawks (-132)
New England Patriots
Despite losing to the Dolphins at home last week, the Patriots will still be a popular pick for two reasons: Bill Belichick and Tom Brady. Certain trends point to the Patriots being a smart pick. The most eye-popping one is that the Patriots are 11-0 SU in the playoffs under Bill Belichick against quarterbacks making their first-ever playoff start. However, Ryan Tannehill has engineered the league's second-highest scoring offense since he took over as the starter in Week 7. Also, the Titans can utilize the formula the Ravens used when they beat the Patriots. Derrick Henry led the NFL with 1,540 rushing yards this year, and the Ravens showed the league that the Patriots could be pushed around. The Ravens, however, were one of the only teams to do it, as New England led the league in total defense and ranked sixth in rush defense.
The Patriots are not nearly as invincible in Foxborough as they were in the prime years of Brady's career. Given all their deficiencies, siding with two of the best ever to do it (Belichick and Brady) would still be a smart bet, albeit one that carries risk.
Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks are the only road team favored on Wild Card weekend. They beat the Eagles in Philadelphia 17-9 in Week 12. The Eagles were banged-up then, and they would be even more so now if Miles Sanders and Zach Ertz are ruled out. In addition, Seattle has had Carson Wentz's number in his career. Wentz is 0-3 against Seattle, with four touchdowns, five interceptions, and three lost fumbles. The Eagles have some positive momentum going with four straight wins in what amounted to do-or-die games. However, Wentz's career numbers against Seattle, including how he performed this year against them, are hard to ignore.
In addition to the Eagles’ momentum, Seattle's health also makes this a risky play. In their earlier win over the Eagles, Rashaad Penny and Chris Carson combined for 155 rushing yards. Both have since been lost to season-ending injuries. Marshawn Lynch is back in a Seahawks uniform, but he clearly lacks the explosiveness that Penny and Carson had. However, the fact that the Seahawks went 7-1 on the road this year will surely have bettors choosing them with confidence.
Picks to Stay Far Away From
Houston Texans (-148)
Of all the favorites this weekend, the Texans have arguably been the most inconsistent team all year. They went 5-3 at home, and while they beat teams like the Patriots, they also lost to the Broncos in Drew Lock's first career road start. Will Fuller's injury status will be a big factor in this game. Fuller is a game-breaker and a player who brings an element to their offense that no one else can. If he is ruled out, the Texans lose a little of their explosiveness. With or without Fuller, it will be a tough task to go against the Bills’ third-ranked total defense. Buffalo's ground-and-pound style of play can win anywhere, and they certainly won't be intimidated by traveling to Houston. I project the Texans as the likeliest favorite to get upset, making them a complete stay-away, especially for survivor pool purposes.
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.