NFL Same Game Parlay Picks & Predictions: Super Bowl LVII (Chiefs)

After a thrilling AFC Championship victory over the Cincinnati Bengals, the Kansas City Chiefs enter the Super Bowl as 1.5-point underdogs to the Philadelphia Eagles. While it’s rare to catch the Chiefs as an underdog, a tough matchup against the Eagles should force their hand a bit and get them to play an aggressive style of offense.

Looking to rebound from an 0-2, -2 unit weekend last weekend, I’ll be playing this three-leg parlay. It’s available on DraftKings and capitalizes on Kansas City’s stellar passing game.

Get ready for the big game with our Super Bowl LVII Betting Guide >>

Best Chiefs’ Super Bowl LVII Same Game Parlay

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

Leg 1: Patrick Mahomes 40+ Pass Attempts (-135)

If the Chiefs are going to win the Super Bowl, it will be because of a big passing day from Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes has at least 40 pass attempts in each of the Chiefs’ last four one-score games, except the Divsional Round game vs. Jacksonville, where he missed time with an ankle injury. I expect the Chiefs to be playing close, or even from behind, on Sunday. This will be a recipe for a pass-heavy game plan against the Eagles.

While Philadelphia allowed the fewest passing yards per game to opposing QBs in the regular season (197.4 ypg), this is only partly due to their great pass defense. A significant part of the equation is that the Eagles played one of the easiest schedules in the league. Their pass defense may not be susceptible on paper, but there will be plenty of room for the Chiefs to attack the Eagles’ secondary and keep the ball in the air.

Leg 2: Travis Kelce Anytime TD (-120)

If you’re going to a Super Bowl party on Sunday, odds are you won’t be the only one with a Travis Kelce Anytime TD ticket. Kelce is routinely one of the most bet-on players in the NFL to get in the end zone, and I don’t expect things to be any different on Sunday. Even still, there’s plenty of value in Kelce’s TD prop.

Kelce is, of course, Mahomes’ favorite red zone target. He got 13 red zone targets over the final 10 weeks of the season and has already scored 3 TDs on an insane 21 catches in two playoff games. While Kelce’s TD prop line usually carries a hefty price, it’s sitting at a reasonable -120 ahead of the Super Bowl.

This is primarily because the Eagles have one of the stingiest defenses in the NFL against opposing TEs. They allowed just 3 TDs to opposing TEs, and none over their last 11 games, including the playoffs. Given the fact that Kelce is an atypical TE matchup for defenses, as well as his red-zone volume, I think he’s a good bet to break that streak on Sunday.

Leg 3: Marquez Valdes-Scantling O44.5 Receiving Yards (+125)

When the Chiefs needed big plays last week, Marquez Valdes-Scantling came up big. He posted 116 yards on 6 catches against the Bengals, including a pivotal 29-yard catch late in the game. Scantling has run hot and cold this year, but he’ll need to play a key role in the Chiefs’ passing game against the Eagles. Mecole Hardman is listed as doubtful for the game, while JuJu Smith-Schuster and Kadarius Toney are both listed as questionable. None of these three WRs practiced this week. This leaves Valdes-Scantling as the only healthy receiver that’s normally in the Chiefs’ top four on the depth chart.

This is a bet on Valdes-Scantling’s talent – he made big plays last week – but also on his opportunity. If Mahomes does throw the ball 40 times on Sunday, Scantling should be able to pick up 6-8 targets, just as he did last week. On this sort of volume, 45 yards is a reasonable threshold for him to break.

Parlay Odds: +500 (1u to win 5u)

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