NFL Same Game Parlay Picks & Predictions: Week 1 (2023)

by Sam Smith |
Sep 09, 2023

The weather is cooling off, the days are getting shorter, and NFL fans around the country are getting ready to sit in front of their TV for 10 consecutive hours of football on Sunday. Week 1 is here, and with it comes a loaded slate of games. If you're looking to play some Same Game Parlays on Sunday, here's one parlay that I'll be playing for each of Sunday's NFL matchups.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns

Browns ML (+120)
Nick Chubb Anytime TD (-150)
Ja'Marr Chase O77.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

While the Bengals are a popular pick to come out of the AFC after back to back deep playoff runs, Cleveland has a great chance to show up Week 1 and pull off the upset at home. Joe Burrow is coming off a calf injury suffered early in training camp. He likely won't be 100% for Sunday's game. And while the Browns finishes 2022 in the AFC North cellar, they did win 7 games in a tough division with shaky QB play all year.

I expect Deshaun Watson to improve significantly in 2023 after the Browns struggled offensively in the five games he started last year. He should play well enough to keep pace with the injured Burrow on Sunday. Nick Chubb only scored one TD in the five games Watson started last year, but if the Browns offense can improve and Chubb sees his volume increase with the departure of Kareem Hunt, I love his chances to score on Sunday at -150.

With Burrow injured, I expect him to be less mobile than usual and more likely to throw the ball to his first read. This should be a good thing for Ja'Marr Chase, who's big play ability means he can put up serious yardage if the Bengals find themselves trailing late and need to throw often. Chase should go over 77.5 yards on Sunday.

Parlay Odds: +520

San Francisco 49ers @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Steelers +3.5 (-160)
Brock Purdy U216.5 Passing Yards (-114)
Pat Freiermuth O3.5 Catches (-120)

San Francisco is coming off an excellent year in 2022. I expect them to take a step backwards this season. Brock Purdy has shown flashes, but it still feels like a longshot that he's a true franchise QB in San Francisco. Meanwhile, a second-year jump from Kenny Pickett is looking likely after an exceptional training camp and preseason this year. I expect the Steelers to come out at home and pull an upset behind Pickett's solid play and their exceptional defense. Given the low total on the game (40.5) and the Steelers' defensive prowess, I'd be surprised to see Purdy have a big day through the air. I feel confident in betting U216.5 Purdy passing yards.

When the Steelers are on offense, I expect them to get the ball out quick and play conservatively. They won't want to let the 49ers' opportunistic defense make a play. I think this will mean quick, underneath passes which will benefit TE Pat Freiermuth. O3.5 catches feels very doable for Freiermuth.

Parlay Odds: +465

Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons

Falcons -3.5 (-110)
Bijan Robinson Anytime TD (+110)
Bryce Young O0.5 INT's (-140)

The Falcons are a trendy pick to make a jump this year. They lost 8 of their 10 games last year by one score – improved execution and some better luck should have them in a spot to make a playoff run this year. They kick the season off at home against the Carolina Panthers and this year's number one overall pick, Bryce Young. I think Young will have a great career in Carolina, but I expect the Falcons to win at home in his debut. Given that it's Young's first game and many of the Panthers' top pass catchers are injured, it wouldn't surprise me to see Young throw an INT (-140).

While Young is this year's top draft pick, Falcons rookie RB Bijan Robinson was widely considered the most talented player in the 2023 class. I expect the Falcons to try to get Robinson a TD in his debut in front of a home crowd and prove early returns on the high draft choice.

Parlay Odds: +350

Tennessee Titans @ New Orleans Saints

Saints -3 (-115)
Jamaal Williams Anytime TD (-145)
Chris Olave O4.5 Catches (-140)

With Derek Carr offering an improvement in QB play, I expect the Saints to improve on last year's 7 win season. If their defense can repeat last year's performance – 9th best scoring defense in the NFL – they'll have a great chance to win their division. They should take care of business at home against a Titans team without clear direction coming into 2023.

As Alvin Kamara serves his 3-game suspension, I expect Jamaal Williams to get plenty of volume. He'll also be the Saints' goal line back, a role in which he scored 17 TDs last year for the Lions. Williams will have a good chance at scoring on Sunday. In the passing game, Chris Olave is due for massive volume this year after a great rookie year. His target volume combined with Carr's QB play should get him at least 5 catches.

Parlay Odds: +370

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Minnesota Vikings

Vikings -5.5 (-110)
Baker Mayfield O7.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Jordan Addison O38.5 Receiving Yards (-117)

Minnesota made a big leap in 2022, and I think they'll pick up where they left off with a decisive home win over Tampa Bay Week 1. The Buccaneers are adjusting to life without Tom Brady, and will be starting Baker Mayfield at QB this year. Mayfield has a spotty track record as an NFL QB, and with a new-look Offensive Line in Tampa Bay I think he'll struggle to start the season. Mayfield did average 3.0 carries in his last five games last year, and should have a good crack at O7.5 rush yards Sunday.

When the Vikings have the ball, I expect Jordan Addison to get involved early and often. Addison is Minnesota's first round rookie from USC, and will immediately slot into the second WR role on the Vikings' offense. Given the volume that Adam Thielen saw in that role last year, I think Addison O38.5 yards has a great chance of cashing on Sunday.

Parlay Odds: +562

Houston Texans @ Baltimore Ravens

Texans +10 (-110)
CJ Stroud O15.5 Rush Yards (-115)
Dalton Schultz O35.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

I don't think Houston is going to be a competitive team in 2023. That said, 10 points is a huge spread in Week 1 before we have a great sense for what either team is going to bring to the table. While it's tough for rookie QBs to succeed immediately, CJ Stroud should be an instant upgrade at QB in Houston. Throw in fellow Top-5 draft pick Will Anderson and some other offseason additions, and I could see Houston keeping this game closer than most expect. It's Baltimore's first game with a new offensive system as well, and they could get off to a slow start.

When the Texans are on offense, I expect Stroud to scramble a fair amount. He carried the ball 4 times a game last year at Ohio State. If Baltimore dials up the heat he'll likely resort to running the ball himself. He may also be prone to checkdowns to new TE Dalton Schultz, who should be a solid security blanket for Stroud through his rookie year.

Parlay Odds +460

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts

Calvin Ridley O62.5 Receiving Yards (-130)
Tank Bigsby Anytime TD (+250)
Anthony Richardson O42.5 Rush Yards (-119)

This is a bit more of a longshot play, but I love all three of these props. Calvin Ridley is back and healthy for the first time in years, and this will likely be the best QB play he's had in his career. Ridley is still just 28 years old, and as the Jaguars' top WR he's in a great position to post a big year. I think this will be the last time all year we can bet his yardage total this low.

Tank Bigsby is another new face for the Jaguars' offense – a third round pick in this year's draft. Bigsby has been very impressive in camp and preseason, and I expect him to get the majority of the Jaguars' goal line work over starting RB Travis Etienne. Getting +250 odds on an Anytime TD prop from a likely goal line back is exceptional value.

Anthony Richardson has a chance to be this year's most exciting rookie. His athleticism and cannon arm should make for a great highlight reel, and hopefully a great career. In his first game I expect him to rely more on his legs than his arm as he gets used to playing QB at the NFL level. O42.5 rushing yards should be very doable, especially given his big play ability.

Parlay Odds: +1300

Arizona Cardinals @ Washington Commanders

Commanders -7 (-110)
Jahan Dotson O41.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Antonio Gibson Anytime TD (+160)

Arizona has put themselves in an excellent position to draft USC QB Caleb Williams next year. They should have very little competition as the worst team in the NFL. They're starting Josh Dobbs at QB, who they acquired just a few weeks ago. And they go to Washington, who could be an under-the-radar contender this year. Commanders QB Sam Howell has some serious upside this year, and could lead Washington back to the playoffs. Washington will take of business at home and cover the 7-point spread.

I expect Jahan Dotson to be the leading receiver for the Commanders. Terry McLaurin is dealing with a toe injury, and will likely be less than full strength if he plays. Out of the backfield, Antonio Gibson could be in for a big year in Eric Bienemy's RB-friendly system. I like his odds of scoring a TD.

Parlay Odds: +675

Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears

Packers ML (-105)
DJ Moore O3.5 Catches (-130)
Aaron Jones Anytime TD (+135)

While Justin Fields and the Bears should improve this year, I think the hype train has gotten a little out of control in Chicago. They had the worst record in the NFL last year. While their roster improved this offseason, I don't expect them to jump into playoff contention. Meanwhile, Green Bay could surprise some doubters this year. Matt LaFleur knows what he's doing – the fact that he's sticking with Jordan Love should give bettors confidence in Love at the Packers' QB this year. I think Green Bay opens the season with a road victory.

I do expect Fields to improve as a passer this year with the addition of DJ Moore. Moore will be the Bears' clear cut number one receiver, and should get a share of targets that allows for 4 or more catches Sunday. Aaron Jones is consistently a threat in the red zone for Green Bay, and will get opportunities to score a TD.

Parlay Odds: +450

Philadelphia Eagles @ New England Patriots

Eagles ML (-205)
Under 45 (-114)
Jalen Hurts Anytime TD (+120)

While history hasn't been kind to the losers of the prior year's Super Bowl, the Eagles return one of the strongest rosters in the NFL. The Patriots are well-coached and should have a good defense, but Philadelphia is the superior team and should get a road victory Week 1. Between New England's strong defense and struggles on offense, I expect a low-scoring game. Under 45 total points is a good play here.

While the game won't be a shootout, Jalen Hurts is a great bet to score a TD. Hurts is effectively the Eagles' goal line RB, and an extremely effective one at that. He scored 13 TDs last year, many of which came on the Eagles' unique QB sneak play. Hurts' TD and the Under are negatively correlated, giving us a little extra juice on this parlay.

Parlay Odds +500

Las Vegas Raiders @ Denver Broncos

Broncos ML (-185)
Samaje Perine Anytime TD (+180)
Jakobi Meyers O38.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Both these teams had intriguing offseasons. Denver brought in Sean Payton to replace Nathaniel Hackett after last year's disaster season, while Las Vegas signed Jimmy Garroppolo to start at QB after letting Derek Carr head to New Orleans. I think these changes represent a positive shift for the Broncos, and a negative shift for the Raiders. Denver is the superior team, and their odds of winning this game at home are undervalued at -185.

I expect the Broncos' offense to be improved in 2023, and one of the immediate beneficiaries is Samaje Perine. While Javonte Williams should take over a larger share of touches as the season goes on, he's recovering from a serious knee injury and will likely be eased in early. All word in camp has been that Williams' recovery has been ahead of schedule, but I expect Perine to get enough touches early in the season that he'll have a good chance to get in the end zone.

On Las Vegas' side, Week 1 represents a perfect chance to feed new WR Jakobi Meyers. He went over 38.5 yards in seven of his final nine games last year – he was the Patriots' primary target, but he'll get an upgrade in QB play this year with Garroppolo. This came on moderate target volume as well. Meyers received seven or fewer targets all but one of those nine games. With All Pro CB Pat Surtain covering Davante Adams, I expect Garroppolo to look Meyers' way plenty on Sunday.

Parlay Odds: +625

Miami Dolphins @ Los Angeles Chargers

Dolphins +3 (-110)
Alternate Over 54 (+120)
Justin Herbert Longest Completion O37.5 Yards (-120)

I expect this to be the highest-scoring game of Week 1. Miami had an up and down season last year, but they were 3-0 and averaging nearly 28 points per game before Tua Tagovailoa's concussion issues started. I expect them to pick up a similar pace this year, in Mike McDaniels' second year with the team. With the Chargers entering year 1 with Kellen Moore at the helm of the offense, they should improve as well. Moore should bring a vertical passing game that plays better to Justin Herbert's strengths. These two offenses will give us a shootout on Sunday.

Miami has a chance to be one of the best teams in the AFC this year, and the Chargers defense gives me more concern than the Dolphins' defense does. I think Miami wins this game outright. I'll build in a cushion and take the 3 points for this parlay. With the Chargers trailing in this scenario, I expect Moore to open up the passing game and let Herbert chuck it down the field. Given Herbert's massive arm and the Chargers' talented WR group, logging a completion over 37.5 yards is very likely.

Parlay Odds: +460

Los Angeles Rams @ Seattle Seahawks

Seahawks -5.5 (-110)
Geno Smith O32.5 Pass Attempts (-110)
Tutu Atwell O30.5 Receiving Yards (-120)

With Cooper Kupp out and the Rams looking down the barrel of a tough season, I expect Seattle to get a win at home this week. Seattle is one of my favorite dark horse teams this year. Geno Smith emerged as a great QB option last season. I think they'll win handily behind their balanced offense. While I think they'll have the lead through this game, I believe the Jaxon Smith-Njigba draft pick signals that they'll be looking to throw the ball even more than they did last year, hence taking Geno Smith's pass attempts over.

When the Rams are on offense, Matthew Stafford may struggle to find someone to throw to. Stafford's yardage total for the game is 230.5, and those yards will have to go somewhere. I think the most likely candidate is Tutu Atwell. With star CB Tariq Woolen likely to line up with Van Jefferson, and rookie Devon Witherspoon drawing his first career start against Atwell, 30.5 is an attainable yardage total for him.

Parlay Odds:+850

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