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NFL Saturday Betting Primer Picks & Player Prop Bets (Week 16)

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Saturday football in Week 16 hits differently. Short weeks, divisional familiarity, and teams reacting to injuries in real time create some of the best inefficiencies on the board - and this slate checks all those boxes.

We've got rivalry games, key injuries reshaping matchups, and multiple home underdogs (divisional underdogs have COOKED on short weeks) in spots the market has consistently mispriced all season. We've seen the divisional underdogs absolutely COOK on Thursday nights this season - 80%-plus clip through 15 weeks - with many overall dogs winning outright (eight of the last 11). Thursday Night Football divisional underdogs are 8-1 ATS this season. 4-5 straight up.

These are the types of games where process beats panic, and where getting ahead of line movement matters.

If you're betting Saturday, this is also a prime slate to attack props - especially volume-based markets like rushing and passing attempts - before books fully adjust.

BettingPros Prop Bet Cheat Sheet (Through Week 15):

  • 56% Win Rate
  • +95.11 Units Won
  • 11% ROI

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Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Commanders

Erickson's Pick: Over 44
Confidence: ★★★★

Trends:

  • Each of the Eagles’ last six games has gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The Commanders have lost eight of their last nine games.
  • The Commanders have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last eight games against NFC opponents.
  • Washington is 0-4 ATS after a win (0% this season).
  • The Eagles are 17-8 ATS after a win since 2024 (68% – best mark in the NFL).
  • The Eagles are 11-20-2 ATS when their defense allowed 20 or more points since the start of last season. They covered just 11 spreads when they allowed 20 points on defense.
  • The Eagles are 20-5-2 ATS when their defense allowed fewer than 20 points since the start of last season (73%).
  • Marcus Mariota is 3-4 ATS this season - but 5-2 toward the Over. Covered in two of his home starts.
  • When Washington allows 20 points or fewer on defense, they are 11-4 toward the Under; when they allow at least 20 points on defense, they are 28-8 toward the OVER (77%).
  • Washington is 4-1-1 toward the OVER at home this season. 4-0 toward the OVER as a home underdog since 2024.

Overall:

This was a pass for me earlier in the week. It's another divisional matchup with the home dog catching points, but Washington's volatility is off the charts. It was confirmed that Jayden Daniels won't play the rest of the season, setting the stage for Marcus Mariota to make his 8th start.

Philly's get-right game last week was against the Raiders and Kenny Pickett- that's not something I'm overreacting to. If I'm being honest, this game doesn't give me that warm-and-fuzzy feeling to fire on.

However, after reassessing how well the Eagles have played after wins and conversely how bad the Commanders have been AFTER wins...I'm a bit more optimistic about Philly covering the spread. Commanders OT Laremy Tunsil is also hurt and will not play. Their defensive line has more injuries.

I think the real play is the OVER on the game total at 44.5 points.

Philly has scored 26-plus points in the last three games versus the Commanders, coached by Dan Quinn. I'm confident they can take care of business from their end. I also think Washington's strong rushing attack (particularly in the red zone versus a Jalen Carter-less Eagles defensive line) can score enough to put this over the total.

I also don't hate the idea of teasing the total down to 38.5 (going over) and taking Philly -2.5 (-110 odds).

Jalen Hurts' designed rushes returned last week, as the Eagles QB had four designed carries for 25 yards. In his last five games, he has 20-plus yards on just designed attempts in four of them. Overall, Hurts has gone over 24.5 yards in five of his last six games. Hurts averaged 32 yards rushing in the last three matchups versus the Commanders last season.

Last eight games, Deebo Samuel has eclipsed 47.5 receiving yards twice. Under in 5-of-7 games with Terry McLaurin in the lineup. The Commanders WRs have a 1-star matchup in Week 16 versus the Eagles' no-fly zone. Slam the Under. Literally just catching screen passes (second in the NFL in total screen pass routes run this season and third in targets). The Eagles’ defense ranks top-5 both versus quick passes and short passes this season in EPA/pass attempt faced.

C-ROD has hit 12 carries once this season. 3-man backfield between Rodriguez, Jacory Croskey-Meritt and Jeremy McNichols. He is also coming off a groin injury. Taking the UNDER.

Props:

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears

Erickson's Pick: Bears +1 (Bears ML)
Confidence: ★★★★

Trends:

  • The Packers have won 14 of their last 15 road games against the Bears.
  • Each of the Packers’ last six road games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Bears have scored the first touchdown in each of their last six home games.
  • The Packers are 2-7 ATS in their last nine road games.
  • GB is 9-5-1 on the road in their last 15 road games.
  • The Packers have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last 12 games.
  • Since 2023, the Packers have been 23-6-1 when they allowed fewer than 23 points on defense and 19-11 ATS. Green Bay is 6-16 ATS when they allowed 23+ points on defense.
  • The Bears are 6-1 ATS as a home favorite (85% ATS) since the start of last season.
  • The Bears have won 13 of their last 19 home games.
  • The Bears have the No.1 record ATS at home since Caleb Williams entered the NFL (69%, 9-4-1).
  • The Bears are 7-7 O/U at home since 2024, and those games averaged under 44 points per game (PPG).
  • The Bears are 3-1-1 ATS as a home underdog since 2024 (1-0 this season).
  • The Bears have scored the first touchdown in each of their last six home games.
  • The Bears have won 10 of their last 12 games.

Overall:

Give me Chicago catching points at home. The Bears might smell blood in the water here with Green Bay losing key pieces - and the whole point is home divisional dogs have been printing. Chicago already had a shot to beat them recently and came up just short on the road just two weeks ago, and now they get them again on their home turf, coming off a big win. The Bears want to run the football, and if Green Bay's pass rush takes a hit without Micah Parsons, it exposes what we've been saying all year: that secondary can be had. Even with Parsons, the Packers' defense has not been nearly as formidable on the road compared to at home (not too dissimilar to the Browns' defense).

This number also felt like it was going to move - I felt strongly early in the week that +2.5 would be the closing line. That's how I felt back on Monday, and the line had indeed moved - Bears +1.5, to now Bears +1.

The Packers might also be without OT Zach Tom and RB Josh Jacobs due to their respective injuries. Per Next Gen Stats, Jordan Love has faced the blitz on 37.2% of his dropbacks when Zach Tom has been off the field, compared to 30.5% of his dropbacks when Tom has been on the field this season.

Over the full season, Love's blitz rate faced with Tom off the field would rank as the 2nd-highest mark in the NFL, trailing only Lamar Jackson (38.2%). Due in part to more than four pass rushers at a higher clip, Love has also faced pressure at a higher rate with Tom off the field (40.0%) than with him on the field (34.8%). Tom logged just 25 snaps in Week 15 against the Broncos before exiting the game due to injury.

Already down Elgton Jenkins at center and losing Tom in the 2nd quarter, the Packers allowed their highest pressure rate of the season (52.2%) in their Week 15 loss to the Broncos.

Love has averaged 9.0 yards per attempt when throwing from a clean pocket but just 5.1 yards per attempt when under pressure this season, translating to the largest decrease among 32 qualified quarterbacks (-3.9). This has been a consistent trend for Love during his career, as he averaged 2.8 fewer yards per attempt when under pressure (6.0) than when kept clean (8.8) last season, ranking as the 4th-largest decrease among 36 qualified quarterbacks (Next Gen Stats).

Colston Loveland has aligned in the slot on just 20.8% of his snaps, but those snaps have been a major pass tell for the Bears’ offense this season.

While offenses league-wide have called a pass on 82.1% of plays when they have aligned a tight end in the slot, the Bears have called a pass on 94.5% of plays when Loveland has aligned in the slot (103-of-109 snaps), resulting in the 10th-highest rate among 53 tight ends to have aligned in the slot at least 50 times. Loveland has been among the most efficient receivers league-wide when aligned in the slot, as he has averaged 3.2 yards per route, the most among rookie tight ends with at least 100 such routes run during the Next Gen Stats era (since 2016).

Despite trailing for nearly the entire game in the first matchup, Caleb Williams used play action on a career-high 61.5% of his dropbacks, with 134 of his 144 yards off of play action coming in the second half. Loveland has six play-action targets in the last two games. The rookie TE finished the last game versus GB with 4-29-1 on five targets.

Per Next Gen Stats: The Bears offense used 12 personnel on 33.8% of snaps in Week 14 against the Packers and 37.5% of snaps in Week 15 against the Browns without Rome Odunze in the lineup, marking two of their top three highest usage rates in a game since their Week 5 bye.

Packers safety Evan Williams (knee) could miss multiple weeks after getting injured Sunday against Denver. The injury is not considered severe, and Williams is hoping not to miss any time, but Green Bay, which is notoriously cautious with injuries, is prepared to be without him in the short term. Williams leads the team in interceptions with three.

Loveland should remain heavily involved in this matchup, given the injuries to both Rome Odunze and Luther Burden. The rookie TE has at least three receptions in nine straight games, boasting a 7-2 record toward his receiving props OVER during that span. Loveland is over 45.5 yards in four of his last seven games, but specifically, he has hit the over in three straight home games. Since Week 9, Loveland ranks 5th in yards, 7th in catches, and 8th in targets among TEs.

Bears, meanwhile, might get LB Tremaine Edmunds (designated to return from IR).

D'Andre Swift had the game I envisioned for rookie Kyle Monangai last week versus the Browns. 18 carries for 98 yards and two TDs. The rookie was still involved - 11 carries for 33 yards with three goal-line carries - but the veteran had the hot hand against a Browns' defense that continues to be vulnerable versus the run in recent weeks. Monangai also had two targets that resulted in ugly drops.

Even so, he has 11-plus carries in five straight games (14 versus the Packers in Week 14).

Props:

Full Saturday Football Card

  • WAS-PHI Over 44.5
  • Bears +1
  • WAS-PHI (Over 39.5 and PHI -2.5 teaser lines)

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