NFL Saturday Betting Primer Picks & Player Prop Bets (Wild Card Weekend)

by Andrew Erickson |
Jan 08, 2026

Through 18 weeks and the entire NFL season, our official BettingPros plays finished 53-50-1.

Onto the NFL playoffs and our Wild Card Weekend picks and player prop bets.

Wild Card Weekend opens with a compact Saturday slate that immediately tests playoff readiness. One matchup features a road favorite expected to handle business, while the nightcap delivers a divisional rivalry where familiarity and variance can quickly override seeding. These are games where discipline matters - don't overextend early, and be prepared to react if game scripts flip. We have two rematches of games played just a few weeks ago.

And keep this in mind from an overarching standpoint/angle when betting sides this weekend. In the last four years of the six-game Wild Card Weekend format, home teams are 19-5 straight up (SU) and 17-7 against the spread (ATS) in the first round of the playoffs. The majority of these home teams are favored, given the higher seeding.

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NFL Saturday Wildcard Weekend Betting Primer

Los Angeles Rams @ Carolina Panthers

Erickson's Pick: Panthers +10.5 (Lean game total over 46.5 points)

Confidence: ★★★★

Trends:

The Panthers have covered the spread in each of their last 10 games following a loss (covered 13 straight as underdogs following a loss).
The Rams are 7-1 toward the over/under on the road this season.
The Rams have won each of their last six games against opponents on a losing streak.
Each of the Rams’ last six games has gone over the total points line.
The Panthers have lost the first half in 16 of their last 18 games against teams that held a winning record.
In each of the Rams’ last five road games, their opponents have scored last.
In four of the Rams’ last five games, the first score has been an opponent touchdown.
The Panthers are 13-7 over/under after a loss since 2024.
Eleven of the Panthers’ last 15 games at Bank of America Stadium have gone over the total points line.
Seven of the Panthers' last 11 games at home as underdogs have gone over the total points line.
The Rams have covered the spread in each of their last six games when playing with a rest disadvantage.
The Rams have the best record since 2023 as a road favorite (11-3 ATS).
The Rams have covered the spread in seven of their last eight road games against teams that held a losing record.
Each of the Rams' last seven road games against NFC opponents has gone over the total points line.

Overall:

I'm not going to sit here and tell you Carolina is the better team - they're not. Los Angeles has the superior quarterback, the superior head coach and the cleaner overall roster.

But from a betting-process standpoint, I'm drawn to the home playoff underdog catching double digits. That's a number that can get you paid even if the Rams control the game, because all it takes is a couple of Panthers chunk plays, a backdoor touchdown or one weird Matthew Stafford turnover to keep it inside the number.

The weather forecast is calling for rain, which favors the home team that plays outdoors.

Carolina won the first matchup back in Week 13, 31-28, due in part largely to Rams turnovers (two Stafford interceptions and a sack-fumble). Los Angeles punted once on eight offensive drives. The game went over the 45-point total, which I had as a Week 13 best bet.

I would also note that the Panthers’ defense will have reinforcements compared to the first matchup. Defensively, they will have CB Jaycee Horn, S Trevon Moehrig, along with linebackers Christian Rozeboom and Claudin Cherelus. These guys didn’t play the Week 13 matchup. The first three played 100% of the defensive snaps for the Panthers in Week 18.

Bryce Young also tossed three touchdowns of 30+ yards (two of which came on fourth down). It wasn't a high-volume passing game for Young in the first matchup versus the Rams, as he attempted just 20 passes, but he completed 15 of them for 206 yards and three touchdowns.

The Panthers quarterback was pressured on just 29.2% of his dropbacks (third-lowest mark this season) and completed 13-of-16 passes for 183 yards and all three scores from a clean pocket. Young finished with his second-most fantasy points on the season (22.5), and the +14.7 dropback expected points added (EPA) he generated was his best mark since Week 18 of last year, according to NFL Next Gen Stats.

Davante Adams (hamstring) will be be available for Saturday’s matchup. He scored twice in the first matchup versus Carolina (4-58-2).

Safety Quentin Lake and rookie tight end Terrance Ferguson are also expected to return. Guard Kevin Dotson will be out and tackle Rob Havenstein will also miss the game.

But the most important piece for me: Carolina is coming off a loss, and that's been the spot where they've consistently played above expectation (covering spreads in that bounce-back profile). Even last week, they lost, but they still covered the +2.5 spread. In a playoff game at home, double digits feels like too much even against the high-flying Rams.

Carolina will try to establish the run - similar to the first matchup - to keep this game within striking distance. The Panthers called a run play on 38 of their 62 offensive plays (61.3%), their highest rate under coach Dave Canales in the earlier matchup versus L.A., according to NFL Next Gen Stats.

Rico Dowdle and Chuba Hubbard were effective on inside runs, averaging 4.2 yards per carry (19 carries for 80 yards) compared to 3.8 yards per carry on outside runs (16 carries for 61 yards). Hubbard recorded a season-high six first downs and generated +16 rushing yards over expected (RYOE) in the contest.

Guard Robert Hunt has a good chance to return (he practiced in full on Tuesday and is optimistic about playing), as does guard Chandler Zavala (just designated to return from injured reserve).

And when they decide to throw, I think Young can take advantage of this Rams secondary.

Per NFL Next Gen Stats, Rams cornerback Emmanuel Forbes Jr. allowed five receptions for 110 yards and two touchdowns on six targets in coverage in the first matchup versus the Panthers, the most coverage yards allowed by any Rams defender by a significant margin. The next closest is linebacker Nate Landman with 24 yards.

Forbes was the responsible coverage defender in man coverage against both Jalen Coker (33-yard touchdown) and Tetairoa McMillan (43-yard touchdown) on their respective touchdown receptions, both occurring on fourth down. This marked the first time Forbes has allowed a touchdown in coverage since Week 4.

McMillan went over 1,000 yards in the Panthers' season finale last week, totaling 85 yards on four receptions. He should have had more production, but he had a catch wiped away on a questionable offensive pass interference (OPI) call.

Rams tight end Tyler Higbee caught five of his six targets for 91 yards and a touchdown in the Rams’ regular-season finale. He played 64% of the snaps in his first game back from injured reserve (he was out since Week 11).

Rams No. 2 tight end Colby Parkinson has played alongside Puka Nacua, Davante Adams and Tyler Higbee in six games this season. He went over 21.5 receiving yards just once.

Jalen Coker is coming off a season-high seven targets in Week 18, which he converted into 6-47-1. The coaching staff has continued to talk up their second-year wideout, so I expect him to stay heavily involved against a defense ranked sixth in targets allowed to wide receivers.

Last time Coker faced the Rams, he led the team with a 30% target share (4-74-1). He also out-targeted McMillan (two) for the first time in the 2025 season.

Coker finished sixth in catch rate this season (77%) among receivers during the 2025 regular season. The Rams defense has faced the 3rd-most targets to the slot this season.

Props:

Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears

Erickson's Pick: Tease Bears +6.5 and Game Total Under 52.5 Points

Confidence: ★★★

Trends:

The Packers have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last eight road games against NFC opponents.
Each of the Bears’ last five home games against NFC opponents has gone under the total points line.
Six of the last seven Bears’ home games have gone under the total.
The Packers have lost each of their last four games.
The Packers have scored the first touchdown in five of their last six games against the Bears.
The Packers have failed to cover the spread in six straight following a loss.
Green Bay is 0-1-1 ATS versus the Bears this season (1-1 SU).
The Bears have won six of their last seven home games.
The Bears are 6-2 ATS as a home favorite (80% ATS) since the start of last season.
Chicago is 3-1-1 ATS as a home underdog (75% ATS).
The Bears have won 14 of their last 21 home games (67%).
The Bears have the No. 1 record ATS at home since Caleb Williams entered the NFL (67%, 10-5-1).
The Bears are 7-9 over/under at home since 2024, and those games averaged fewer than 44 points per game (PPG). The Bears are 4-1-1 ATS as a home underdog since 2024 (2-0 this season).
As home favorites, the Bears are 3-7 over/under since 2024 (1-5 over/under this season, 2-3 as home underdogs since 2024).
Six of the Packers' last seven road games have gone over the total points line (with Packers starters playing).
Green Bay is 3-7 ATS as a road favorite since the start of 2024 (last 10 road games as favorites), and 3-6 ATS as a road team.

Overall:

Green Bay is somewhat limping into this game (although resting players in Week 18 should help, in addition to getting back a 100% healthy Jordan Love), whereas Chicago is the more trustworthy side at home. Earlier in the week, I wanted to take the home team with the points instead of planting a flag on the Bears’ Moneyline.

This rubber game matchup has all the ingredients for playoff weirdness:

Divisional familiarity
Third meeting energy
Outdoor windy Chicago conditions
Offenses that can look clunky when forced to play left-handed

Both matchups in the regular season were one-score games that came down to the final play in both instances. Note that Green Bay has never trailed at any point versus the Bears this season (lost in overtime). Both home teams won and covered outright.

I'm not overly confident in picking a winner here because this game will likely go down to the fourth quarter. And in that instance, I want every margin I can get, which lands me on Chicago +1.5, if forced to choose a side. The whole point is home divisional underdogs have been printing money (especially on primetime).

Three of the most profitable trends this year are divisional underdogs, primetime underdogs and home underdogs (all north of 52% records).

The Packers’ defense is a shell of its former healthy self, and they have struggled immensely on the road all year - 24 PPG allowed on the road versus 17.9 PPG allowed at home.

And given the Bears' second-half heroics... a live betting opportunity might be on the Bears at a better number ATS.

The Bears only have two losses by more than one score - 89% hit rate at +6.5; 73% hit rate under 52.5 points. Smells like a tease for me rather than straight betting such a razor-close game.

Another bet that interests me is the game total under 44.5 points. Last time these teams played, the total went under 44.5 points despite the game going into overtime. The Packers also lost Love to a concussion in the Week 16 contest, which probably factored into the under cashing.

The early weather forecast has both wind and snow (16 miles per hour winds with gusts up to 27 miles per hour).

Neither defense is great, which is why the total sits where it is (although it’s gone down a point from 46.5). Bears home games are just 2-6 over/under, averaging 43.3 PPG (tied for the third-lowest under hit rate this season). Six of the last seven Bears home games have gone under the total.

This brings me back to teaser legs. Green Bay has a 73% hit rate toward the under at 52.5 points (same as the Bears).

It took a long path to get here, but my official side/total bet for this contest will be Bears +6.5, and the game total is teased to under 52.5 points.

Packers safety Javon Bullard (knee) was questionable to return to Sunday’s contest against the Vikings. He was limited in practice on Tuesday and Wednesday, so the expectation is that he should play. Josh Jacobs is also expected to be closer to 100% as he has battled through a knee injury for the last six weeks.

Tackle Zach Tom is also expected to play Saturday in Chicago. He hasn't played since Week 15. However, he was DNP on Thursday and needed rest-clearly not 100%.

The Packers haven't won a game since he got hurt against Denver.

Per Next Gen Stats: With Zach Tom on the field, the Packers generated more than double the yards before contact per designed carry outside the right tackle (2.0 vs. 0.9) and gained 10+ yards more than twice as often (22.6% vs. 10.2%).

The Packers also haven’t won a game since they lost Micah Parsons.

Rome Odunze was inactive in Week 18. That was his fifth straight missed game. However, the expectation is that he'll be fully ready to go for the playoffs.

However, Odunze could be limited in his first game back compared to his normal role. When he first tried to come back from his injury, it flared up on him during pre-game warm-ups.

Also, we have to consider the Bears want to run the football, so a pass-happy game plan doesn't seem super likely - a -3% pass rate over expected (PROE) in Week 14 and -8% PROE in Week 16 when facing the Packers’ injury-plagued defense.

Green Bay also added cornerback Trevon Diggs not too long ago, and he played well in his debut last week.

Even in his normal role this season, Odunze has been well under 3.5 receptions in seven out 10 games. And since his injury, the rookies have broken out for the Bears (Luther Burden and Colston Loveland).

Starting rookie tackle Ozzy Trapilo also looks like he will return after missing Week 18. Safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson won’t play (concussion), but cornerback Kyler Gordon might return to man the slot for Chicago (designated to return from injured reserve).