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NFL Saturday Betting Primer Picks & Player Props (Divisional Round)

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Saturday kicks off the Divisional Round with two heavyweight matchups that feel closer to conference championship games than anything else. These are teams that have already survived Wild Card Weekend (or had a first-round bye), now stepping into a tighter betting window where margins shrink, coaching edges matter more, and in-game decisions can swing outcomes. This is the slate where public narratives start to clash with matchup reality - and where disciplined bettors can find real value before the lines fully settle.

As always, this is where the BettingPros Prop Bet Cheat Sheet really shines. And per usual, rushing attempts (58% hit rate) and pass attempts (60% hit rate) remain the cash cow in NFL player props.

5-Star NFL Props through 19 weeks:

  • 55% Win Rate
  • +84.82 unit won
  • 5.13% ROI

With game scripts becoming more predictable and rotations tightening, props often provide cleaner edges than sides or totals. Whether it's volume-based markets like rushing attempts or situational angles tied to pace and game flow, this slate is built for bettors who are willing to dig one layer deeper.

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NFL Saturday Divisional Round Betting Primer

Buffalo Bills @ Denver Broncos

AFC Divisional Round

Erickson's Pick: Bills Moneyline (Lean game total under 46)

Confidence: ★★★★

Overall:

According to Next Gen Stats: Josh Allen now has eight career playoff wins as a starting quarterback, the most by a QB without a Super Bowl appearance in NFL history.

Allen’s only playoff losses have come at the hands of Deshaun Watson, Patrick Mahomes, and Joe Burrow; i.e., when Allen is the better QB in a playoff game (hands down), he wins.

Sean McDermott now has eight career playoff wins as a head coach, the most by a head coach without a Super Bowl appearance in NFL history.

The Bills finally won a road playoff game in the Wild Card Round, and they did so in somewhat unconventional fashion.

Running back James Cook was held in check (rushed for 46 yards on 15 carries). Entering this game, Buffalo boasted just a 3-5 record (SU and ATS) when they were held to fewer than 150 rushing yards and were 9-0 when they surpass 150-plus rushing yards.

The Bills’ defense STILL couldn't stop the run. The Jaguars rushed for 154 yards in their Wild Card loss to the Bills, with 119 of those yards coming on outside runs (Next Gen Stats).

It was the offense’s highest total on outside runs this season, while posting a 57.1% success rate, their 2nd-highest mark of the season. Travis Etienne Jr. carried the ball outside six times for 47 yards, while Bhayshul Tuten added 37 yards on three outside rushes.

Anybody backing the Jags last week (including me) acknowledged the challenge of facing Josh Allen. He put the Superman cape on and willed his way to a victory for Buffalo with two rushing TDs despite getting banged up throughout the contest.

Once the sharp money made the Jags favored before kickoff, I felt a massive pit in my stomach.

The Bills are 3-0 ATS as an underdog this season. An elite QB as an underdog in the postseason. Trust the process.

Even if Buffalo doesn't officially "close" as an underdog...they definitely "feel" like the underdog in this spot. On the road, nobody believes in us, etc.

These lines might flip like we saw last week, because after all, Buffalo has shorter odds to win the Super Bowl than Denver. It also depends on the sportsbook you are shopping at.

My favorite SB Futures Bet is Buffalo at 6-1.

Per NGS: Cook led the NFL with a career-high 1,621 rushing yards in 2025, and the Bills had the NFL’s best pass defense, allowing just 156.9 passing yards per game. The only other team in the Super Bowl era to have the league’s leading rusher and best pass defense is the 2024 Eagles with Saquon Barkley, who went on to win Super Bowl LIX.

Now Buffalo will draw an even tougher defense matchup - facing Denver on the road.

The Broncos have been equally great as an underdog this year: 4-0-1 ATS. 4-1 SU.

These teams met in the playoffs last season - Buffalo blew out Denver 31-7 as 7.5-point home favorites (48.5 O/U).

Denver's run defense has allowed the second-fewest rushing yards per game (91.1), allowing the same EPA/rush (-0.8) as the Jaguars.

However, unlike the Jags' pass-funnel defense, the Broncos can actually stop the pass as well.

Denver allowed the fewest yards per attempt (4.8). Both of these defenses are top-5 in fewest yards per pass attempt allowed.

Ultimately, the Broncos' 11-2 record in close games suggests to me that they might be slightly overrated in a close spread.

Give me the game total Under and the Bills to win outright.

Bo Nix struggled to put up strong offensive production versus the Chargers' backups in Week 18. Finished 26th in passer rating this season and 28th in success rate.

Nix finished 21st out of 25 qualified passers with an 87.8 passer rating in 2025 (Next Gen Stats). Nix has had a sub-90 passer rating in 8 of his last 9 games, and in his most recent outing in Week 18, posted his only game of the season with fewer than 200 passing yards and no touchdown passes.

Even though the Broncos are 9-1 at home this season and 11-2 in one-score games, but just 5-5 ATS. Also keep tabs on stud OT Garett Bolles, who was a DNP on Tuesday.

Gabe Davis (knee) was seen exiting the locker room on crutches and with a brace on his left leg after Sunday’s 27-24 win over the Jaguars in the wild-card round, Alaina Getzenberg of ESPN.com reports. He has been placed on IR.

Joshua Palmer was also recently placed on IR.

Tyrell Shavers also got shaken up but returned in the second half. McDermott said Monday that Shavers (knee) was being evaluated, and it turns out, he tore his ACL.

Buffalo couldn't afford more losses at WR, but they got hit hard by the injury bug.

Fewer WRs means more heavy TE sets, along with Khalil Shakir/Keon Coleman/Brandin Cooks rounding out 11 personnel. The coaching staff has been super vocal about Coleman needing to step up. He will definitely get some opportunities for 50/50 balls and deep targets against a great Broncos’ secondary. Coleman did convert a two-point conversion last year when these teams faced off - 5-to-1odds for anytime TD.

Dalton Kincaid played his most snaps (28, 44% snap rate) since Week 5 versus the Jaguars. Caught three balls for 28 yards on five targets (highest since Week 14) with a TD.

Kincaid has hit at least 37 yards when he has played at least 40% of the snaps this season. Also had 47 receiving yards last year versus the Broncos.

The Bills TE generated a 149.9 passer rating when targeted this season, second-highest among all players.

The Broncos defense has allowed the 6th-most targets and 9th-most yards to TEs this season.

Dawson Knox has also gone over his receiving yards prop (20.5) in 6 of his last 7 games with Kincaid in the lineup and totaled 38 yards in last year's matchup versus Denver.

Safety Jordan Poyer (hamstring) was also ruled out for the remainder of Sunday’s Wild Card game versus the Jaguars. He will not play against the Broncos. CB Maxwell Hairston looks like he will miss another week, as well, along with Ty Johnson.

Curious to see if Cook gets more run as a receiver, as was not the case last week (just two catches for 5 yards with no notable route usage change). Denver also allows the fewest catches to RBs.

McDermott said he doesn’t know yet if Ed Oliver or Curtis Samuel will be available Saturday.

J.K. Dobbins is also not expected to return. Smash the Over on RJ Harvey's rushing yardage.

In Week 17, Harvey ran 14 times for 43 yards (50.0% success rate) and caught the game-winning touchdown. The Broncos' 56.3% rush success rate was their 2nd-highest in a game this season; all four individual Broncos ball carriers recorded a success rate of at least 50% (Next Gen Stats).

The rookie has at least 14 carries in four of his last five games.

He has struggled in tougher matchups (Chargers, Chiefs) but shown out versus the Raiders/Packers. Harvey also averaged over 7.0 yards per carry versus the Jaguars.

The Bills are allowing the 5th-most rushing yards per game this season.

Trends:

  • Each of the Broncos’ last six postseason games against AFC opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Broncos games have averaged 43.3 PPG at home this season.
  • Four of the Broncos' last six games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The home team has covered the spread in six of the Broncos’ last seven games.
  • The Broncos are 9-1 at home this season, but just 5-5 ATS.
  • 3-9 ATS as a favorite overall in 2025.
  • The Broncos have covered the spread in six of their last 7 home games against teams that held a winning record.
  • Denver has covered four straight as an underdog.
  • Eight of the Bills' last 11 postseason games have gone over the total points line.
  • 13 of the Broncos’ last 19 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The Broncos are 3-0 SU after a bye week since 2023.

Props:

San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks

NFC Divisional Round

Erickson's Pick: Seattle -7 and Under 45

Confidence: ★★★★

Overall:

We just saw this matchup two weeks ago, with Seattle dominating the 49ers. Despite a final score of just 13-3, the 49ers were lucky to lose by only 10 points.

Per NFL Next Gen Stats, the 49ers' offense generated -0.46 expected points added (EPA) per play in their Week 18 loss to the Seahawks, their lowest mark of the season, while posting a 40.5% success rate, their third-lowest mark this season. Christian McCaffrey was limited to 23 yards on eight carries, recording a 25% success rate, his second-lowest of the season, and failed to force a missed tackle on a rushing attempt for the first time in a game since Week 12 of 2022 (minimum eight carries).

As my colleague, Pat Fitzmaurice, put so eloquently in our private Slack chat...

Seahawks beat SF by 10 in Week 18 and it should have been more — Seattle outgained SF by more than a 2-1 margin.

The George Kittle Achilles injury is huge. Their best pass catcher, and when Kittle was out early in the year, CMC barely averaged 3.0 yards per carry.

Huge rest advantage for the Seahawks coming off a bye while the 49ers will be playing on 5 days’ rest.

The SF defense is cheeks.

LOL. I would have used the term "buns" to describe the 49ers' defense. Still, I felt much better laying the points with Seattle after talking more to Fitzy.

It was my initial lean, but I feel much more bullish.

The 49ers' defense continues to be banged up, and the rest disadvantage against Seattle is so stark. OT Charles Cross (hamstring) and S Coby Bryant (knee) are expected to return for Saturday’s game against the 49ers.

Safety Ji'Ayir Brown (hamstring) was ruled out of Sunday’s contest against the Eagles. He was a DNP on Tuesday, along with LB Luke Gifford.

LB Dee Winters was limited.

Winters/Brown rank second and 4th respecitvely in defensive snaps played this season.

Since 2023, no team has had a worse ATS record than the 49ers as road underdogs (2-5 ATS). The 49ers are 7-9 ATS with a rest disadvantage since 2023.

Seattle is 2-0 ATS/SU after a bye week (6-3 ATS, 7-2 SU with rest advantage since 2024).

The 49ers are 0-5 ATS as underdogs following a win. They have failed to cover the spread in 16 of their last 21 games following a win.

Per Matt Perrault on the BettingPros Best Early Divisional Round Bets show: Sam Darnold is 13-0 SU and 10-3 ATS as a 6-point-plus favorite. The BP team (besides Joe lol) is all aboard the Seattle wagon.

Go Hawks.

Fade the injured Niners off a win, against a well-rested No. 1-seeded Seahawks team that dominated them just two weeks ago.

Per Next Gen Stats:

Since 1984, teams with 8+ days of rest advantage in the playoffs vs their opponent are 7-0 in such games. The team with shorter rest has been held to 10 or fewer points in 6 of 7 games, while the team with longer rest has scored 20+ points in all 7 games.

I won't be fooled by a gutsy 49ers' defensive performance versus the inept Eagles sans Lane Johnson. The 49ers’ defense pressured Jalen Hurts on 16.2% of his dropbacks in their Wild Card win over the Eagles, their lowest rate in a game this season.

Brock Purdy has been UNDER 34.5 pass attempts in 8/10 games this season, including both games the 49ers were listed as underdogs. Hasn't attempted more than 34.5 passes since Week 4 (last game before his second injury).

Under has cashed in 3-of-4 games without George Kittle.

5-star bet on the Prop Bet Cheat Sheet: 4-of-5 QBs to play Seattle have not surpassed 30 pass attempts.

In Week 1, Purdy did go over this number, but in three of the last four games versus Seattle, he has finished with 28 or fewer pass attempts.

Christian McCaffery has one game over 57.5 rushing yards without George Kittle this season (the Chicago Bears game in Week 17, going under six of his last seven). Also, 7-0 toward the Under on his rushing yards as an underdog the last two seasons.

After Kittle got hurt versus the Eagles, CMC went 10 for 41 yards on the ground (4.1 YPC).

Kittle's role as a key cog in the run game cannot be understated.

I’d recommend you mess around with the BettingPros Prop Bet Analyzer and filter these 49ers skill players with and without Kittle in the lineup. You might stumble upon a best bet.

I messed around with it regarding both TE Jake Tonges and FB Kyle Juszczyk. Tonges has gone OVER 35.5 yards in his last four games without Kittle playing a full snap share (inactive). In fact, 40 yards or more.

Meanwhile, Juszczyk is UNDER in 6-of-8 games with Kittle. In fact, following games where Juszczyk saw a major boost in yardage (after a mid-game injury to Kittle), he underwhelmed tremendously the following week. His 15.5 yards prop this week is completely tied to the production from last week versus the Eagles. Also gone UNDER 15.5 yards in 3-of-4 games versus Seattle (went over in Week 1 of this season after Kittle’s injury).

Zach Charbonnet has scored in three straight games and in both matchups this year versus the 49ers. He has also scored in all but one of Seattle’s home games this season

Demarcus Robinson finished with six receptions for 111 yards and a touchdown on seven targets, including four receptions for 106 yards on downfield targets (10+ air yards).

He was particularly effective against Eagles cornerback Quinyon Mitchell on the game’s opening drive, catching two passes for 63 yards and a touchdown. Robinson then found success when matched up with Adoree’ Jackson, catching all four targets for 48 yards.

Trends:

  • Brock Purdy is 4-0 on the road at the Seahawks in his NFL career.
  • The home team has won each of the Seahawks’ last 12 Divisional Round games.
  • The home team has won the first half in each of the Seahawks’ 13 previous Divisional Round games.
  • Each of the 49ers’ last eight road postseason games against NFC opponents has gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The road team has covered the spread in each of the last six games between the 49ers and Seahawks.
  • The road team has covered and won the last four matchups between the 49ers/Seahawks
  • The 49ers have scored the first touchdown in eight of their last nine games against the Seahawks.
  • The 49ers have been the first to 15 points in nine of their last 10 games against the Seahawks.
  • Seattle has won 11 straight as favorites.
  • The 49ers are 0-5 ATS as underdogs following a win.
  • 3 of the last 4 SF-SEA games have finished UNDER the total (3 straight unders with no game exceeding 37 points.
  • Per NGS: Kyle Shanahan has averaged 18.3 points per game in 4 games vs Mike Macdonald since he became the Seahawks Head Coach in 2024. That is the fewest among 16 head coaches that Shanahan has faced 3+ times, including playoffs. Shanahan also faced the Ravens once with Macdonald as Defensive Coordinator, where the 49ers turned the ball over 5 times, tied for the most in a game under Shanahan (Next Gen Stats).
  • Since Brock Purdy was drafted in 2022, the 49ers are 43-21 (.672) in games that George Kittle played and 5-6 (.455) in games that Kittle did not play, including playoffs (NGS). In that span, the 49ers averaged 26.4 points per game and 6.1 yards per play with Kittle and 22.5 points per game and 5.6 yards per play without Kittle.
  • Seattle is 2-0 ATS/SU after a bye week (6-3 ATS, 7-2 SU with rest advantage since 2024).
  • Since 2023, no team has had a worse ATS record than the 49ers as road underdogs (2-5 ATS).
  • Each of the 49ers' last eight road postseason games against NFC opponents has gone under the total points line.
  • The 49ers have failed to cover the spread in 16 of their last 21 games following a win.
  • The 49ers are 7-9 ATS with a rest disadvantage since 2023.

Props:


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