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NFL Sunday Betting Primer Picks & Player Prop Bets (Wild Card Weekend)

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Sunday delivers the heart of Wild Card Weekend - higher totals, tighter spreads and fewer places to hide. Coaching edges become magnified, and in-game variance spikes. This slate often rewards bettors willing to stay patient, lean into matchup specifics and avoid chasing false narratives from the regular season.

Keep this in mind from an overarching standpoint/angle when betting sides this weekend: In the last four years of the six-game Wild Card weekend format, home teams are 19-5 straight up (SU) and 17-7 against the spread (ATS) in the first round of the playoffs. The majority of these home teams are favored, given the higher seeding.

As always, this is where the BettingPros Prop Bet Cheat Sheet really shines.

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NFL Sunday Wildcard Weekend Betting Primer

Buffalo Bills @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Erickson's Pick: Jaguars +1.5

Confidence: ★★★★

Trends:

  • The Jaguars have scored last in seven of their last eight games at EverBank Stadium.
  • The home team has won each of the Bills’ last nine Wild Card Round games.
  • The Bills have lost eight straight games on the road in the playoffs.
  • The Jaguars have covered the spread in each of their last eight games.
  • The Bills have won the first half in each of their last six Wild Card Round games.
  • The Jaguars have scored last in seven of their last eight games at EverBank Stadium.
  • Eight of the Bills’ last 10 postseason games have gone over the total points line.
  • The Jacksonville Jaguars are 19-6 overall as a favorite, dating back to 2023 (16-8 ATS).
  • The Jaguars are 7-1 ATS at home this season (88% ATS).

Overall:

Jacksonville is the more complete team, at home, in a spot where Buffalo is priced like the bigger brand. The public sees "Bills + Josh Allen" and assumes an advantage. But I'm looking at Jacksonville and seeing a team that's playing confident football, with a quarterback in Trevor Lawrence who's operating at a high level, and a home environment that has mattered all season.

Buffalo isn't the same juggernaut on the road compared to at home. And Josh Allen has not been healthy in the last few weeks since he hurt his ankle/foot versus the Browns. Maybe the Week 18 bye week and more time off healed it enough. But what if it didn’t?

Also, I don't trust Buffalo's defense the way I need to in January. Even though it appears like they might be healthier in the first round of the playoffs. Cornerback Maxwell Hairston is unlikely to play on Sunday.

And to their credit, they have played better lately, especially in the second halves of games. In 2025, Buffalo has allowed the third-fewest PPG in the second half (8.5).

IE: If we don’t get points early, this game will likely fall short of the 51.5-point projected game total.

Since Week 12, they are a top-10 unit in points/yards allowed. But obviously, the numbers are boosted by matchups against the Texans, Steelers, Browns, Eagles (rain) and Jets. Their last two road games, they have still allowed over 25 PPG, and well over 200 rushing yards allowed per game.

That's not saying Buffalo can't win - it's saying the gap is not big enough for me to fade Jacksonville at home. Jacksonville has been elite ATS at home this season - 7-1 ATS (88% ATS). Their defense has allowed the second-fewest PPG at home (14.7).

Offensive lineman Cole Van Lanen left Sunday’s 41-7 win versus the Titans with a knee injury. He and cornerback Jarrian Jones (set to play) were both absent during the open-viewing portion of practice. The Jaguars being without their starting left tackle at practice to begin the week isn’t a great sign.

If the Jaguars’ offense struggles, it could be related to losing Van Lanen. He recently got a new contract and has played a big role in the offense’s second-half surge. He also missed Thursday’s practice.

As for the Bills’ run game, this is the toughest draw for them all year. The Jaguars’ run defense was historically dominant recently, becoming only the third team since 2000 to not allow a single opposing running back over 75 rushing yards for an entire season. Jonathan Taylor came close to this mark in two attempts (70 and 74 yards).

The Jaguars are allowing 68.0 rushing yards per game to running backs in 2025, the fewest in the NFL (NGS).

James Cook was held to fewer than 80.5 yards just six times this season - but against the Ravens, Patriots, Dolphins, Buccaneers, Bengals and Eagles. Many of which were above-average run defenses.

If the Jaguars can stop the run and force Allen and his pass-catchers to beat them, then that is a recipe for a Jaguars win. The Bills are 9-0 when they rush for 150 yards - 3-5 (SU and ATS) when they are held to fewer than 150 rushing yards.

Now, after doing some more research, I am becoming a bit more gun-shy on this Cook rushing yards bet. After all, the last time I bet the under on Cook’s rushing prop – he went for 216 yards. WOOF.

It’s come to my attention that maybe this Jags’ run defense might be slightly overrated.

IE: Teams just elect to throw versus the Jags because of their pass-funnel nature. Same with Buffalo’s defense as a run-funnel. I, for one, have not viewed Buffalo’s secondary as an elite unit by any means despite their ranking in fewest passing yards allowed per game.

Given the state of the Bills’ pass-catchers…I’m not sure they will change their offensive rushing identity against the Jaguars. Whether they are successful remains to be seen, as Jacksonville definitely still throws more at opposing offenses to thwart the run.

However, I do think the Jags’ legitimacy as an elite run defense is superior to that of the Bills’ as some “no fly zone.” Also, the Jags’ run game can take full advantage of the Bills’ atrocious run defense that ranks second-worst in yards allowed on the road this season.

As a final note, when it comes to handicapping these close games, which kicker do you feel better about? Cam Little, who continues to break record after record with his massive leg? Or Matt Prater? Who says he will play after hurting his quad in Week 18?

As for player props - and the player Buffalo needs to get going to beat Jacksonville through the air - I am looking right at Dalton Kincaid. He played last week (six routes run) and caught three passes for 48 yards. In a must-win situation, Buffalo has to take the training wheels off Kincaid and hope his knee holds up.

The Jags are allowing the 6th-most catches (6.1 per game) and second-most targets per game (8.7) to TEs this season.

Brian Thomas Jr. has gone under 3.5 receptions in four out of six games with Parker Washington and Jakobi Meyers in the starting lineup. Buffalo has allowed the fifth-fewest receptions to wide receivers this season. They have also allowed the fewest receptions to tight ends (2.7 per game).

Brenton Strange also has a chance to get squeezed here, given how elite the Bills’ defense (and their coverage safeties) have been at blanketing tight ends. Strange has also gone over 3.5 receptions just twice in five games, with the other 3 Jags WRs healthy this season, despite those also being much better matchups.

Overall, Buffalo’s run-funnel status (fewest completions, second-fewest pass attempts, and 4th-lowest completion rate allowed) suggests a lower volume day for Trevor Lawrence, which doesn’t bode well for any individual Jags pass-catcher in an offense that spreads the wealth.

The Jaguars love to use Bhayshul Tuten near the goal line. He has five touchdowns in his last eight games (three in the last four). Buffalo is allowing the second-highest rushing touchdown rate this season (56%).

Props:

San Francisco 49ers @ Philadelphia Eagles

Erickson's Pick: Eagles -5.5 (Lean game total under 44.5 points)

Confidence: ★★★★★

Trends:

  • The Eagles have won 18 of their last 20 games at Lincoln Financial Field against teams that held a winning record.
  • Since 2023, no team has had a worse ATS record than the 49ers as road underdogs (1-5 ATS, 16.7%).
  • Jalen Hurts is 5-0 SU in the playoffs at home (4-1 ATS). Average margin of victory: 21 points; lowest margin of victory: six points.
  • Each of the 49ers’ last seven road postseason games against NFC opponents has gone under the total points line.
  • The 49ers have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four postseason games.
  • The 49ers have won seven straight as favorites.
  • Eight of the Eagles' last nine games have gone under the total points line.
  • The Eagles are 19-9 ATS after a win since 2024 (68% - best mark in the NFL).
  • The Eagles are 11-21-2 ATS when their defense allowed 20+ points since the start of last season. They covered just 11 spreads when they allowed 20 points on defense.
  • The Eagles are 22-5-2 ATS when their defense allowed fewer than 20 points since the start of last season (75%).
  • The 49ers' team total is listed at 19.5 points.
  • The Eagles are 5-1 ATS as road underdogs since 2023 (5-1 SU); 1-5 toward the over.
  • The Eagles are 6-13 over/under at home since the start of 2024 (fewer than 44 points per game).
  • Twelve of the Eagles’ last 16 home games have gone under the total points line.

Overall:

Joe Pisapia said he's "all over the Eagles" on Monday’s Wild Card Weekend Lookahead Show, and I'm right there with him. The key for me is that the 49ers just got checked hard by Seattle's defense in an NFC West championship game, and it wasn't just the final score - it was the way it happened. The 49ers were lucky to lose by only 10 points.

Per NFL Next Gen Stats, the 49ers’ offense generated -0.46 expected points added (EPA) per play in their Week 18 loss to the Seahawks, their lowest mark of the season, while posting a 40.5% success rate, their third-lowest mark this season. Christian McCaffrey was limited to 23 yards on eight carries, recording a 25% success rate, his second-lowest of the season, and failed to force a missed tackle on a rushing attempt for the first time in a game since Week 12 of 2022 (minimum eight carries).

With more injuries piling up on defense, the 49ers might be running out of gas. Kyle Shanahan deserves all the credit for the way he has coached and won with this undermanned team, but the deck is just too stacked against him in this road playoff spot.

The 49ers’ linebacker room continues to be devastated by injuries.

This Eagles-49ers matchup screams similar pressure points that should concern Niners Nation.

San Francisco is traveling across the country. Philadelphia is at home in colder/outdoor conditions. It’s a top-tier Eagles "rested" defense. The Eagles are hoping to have 21 of their 22 starters healthy and ready to go for the playoffs.

And the biggest hinge: Trent Williams’ injury status (and also working in favor of the Eagles is likely getting back Lane Johnson). Williams will be “evaluated” throughout the week to see if he can play.” Woof.

If the 49ers are compromised up front, it changes their entire offensive identity. And even if San Francisco's defense plays well enough, I still don't love trusting Shanahan in high-leverage playoff moments to keep it simple.

Joe said it simply- the 49ers head coach can get cute, and that can swing a spread game.

I think the Eagles win a grind. And even if the final score doesn’t showcase a blowout, the reigning Super Bowl champions can dominate this game on both sides of the ball.

Defense creates short fields; run game controls. Eagles advance.

Jalen Hurts has gone under 29.5 pass attempts in seven of his last 10 home games (all three playoff games last season), and under in six of his last 10 games. Four of his overs in the last six games have all been contests in which Lane Johnson missed. Hurts went under in 11 out of his 15 games played with Johnson (seven out of 10 this season toward the under).

Props:

Los Angeles Chargers @ New England Patriots

Erickson's Pick: Under 46.5 (Lean Patriots Moneyline)

Confidence: ★★★★★

Trends:

  • The Patriots are 5-4 ATS at home this season (9-0 on the road).
  • The Patriots are 3-1 SU as underdogs this season (0-1 as home underdogs).
  • Twelve of the Patriots’ last 15 home games have gone over the total points line.
  • Patriots home games have averaged 46.4 points per game (6-3 over/under).
  • The Chargers have conceded the first touchdown in each of their last seven road games.
  • The Patriots have won 13 of their last 14 games (10 straight wins as favorites).
  • Each of the Patriots’ last five games has gone over the total points line.
  • The Chargers have covered the spread in six of their last seven games as underdogs.
  • The Chargers have covered the spread in five of their last eight games.
  • The Chargers are 3-5 ATS on the road this season; 4-2 ATS as road underdogs since last season.
  • The Bolts are 2-5-1 toward the over/under on the road this season (third-lowest over hit rate).
  • Under Jim Harbaugh, only the Chiefs have a lower total hit rate than the Chargers on the road (6-11-1, 35%)
  • Chargers’ road games on the East Coast tend to go under the projected total. Since the start of 2024, when they have played on the East Coast, the point totals have been 41, 39, 29, 30, 37, 30, 47, 47 and 56 - 3-6 O/; Under 40 points per game.

Overall:

The Browns are the only other top-10 defense in DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) and EPA/play allowed the Patriots have faced this season. We are all aware of the cupcake schedule the Patriots have faced this season, and I think that shows up here in the first round of the playoffs. This Chargers defense is legit (fifth-fewest yards allowed and eighth-fewest points allowed per game), and they thrive where Drake Maye does a ton of his damage - downfield.

Per NFL Next Gen Stats: The Chargers allowed just a 40.7% completion rate on downfield passes (10+ air yards) this season, the third-lowest rate in the NFL.

They also totaled 14 interceptions on downfield targets, the second-most by any defense. Maye completed 61.2% of his downfield passes (10+ air yards) this season, the highest rate in the NFL and the seventh-highest mark in a single season in the NFL Next Gen Stats era (since 2016). He totaled 2,382 passing yards on downfield throws, the second-most in the league, while his 19 touchdowns on such passes were tied for the most.

Per NFL Next Gen Stats, Omarion Hampton was contacted behind the line of scrimmage on 52.4% of his carries this season, the third-highest rate in the NFL (minimum 100 carries), and was also stuffed for a loss or no gain on 24.2% carries (fourth-highest).

However, Hampton forced a missed tackle on 29.8% of his rushes, the fourth-highest among the same group of players. He is also on the injury report this week, so he is likely playing at less than 100%.

Even so, a healthy Patriots run defense is going to keep his rushing production limited. Look at the splits with and without defensive tackle Milton Williams:

  • Twelve games with Milton Williams: 56.3 rushing yards allowed per game; 3.2 yards per carry allowed
  • Five games without Williams: 127 rushing yards allowed per game; 5.2 yards per carry allowed

Getting back linebacker Robert Spillane also matters substantially. Per NFL Next Gen Stats, Spillane led the Patriots with 10 run stuffs and 32 run stops this season (seven more than any other Patriot) despite missing time since Week 14 due to injury. His 4% run stuff rate ranked seventh among linebackers with at least 250 run snaps, while his 12.8% run stop rate ranked 13th in the same group.

Ultimately, I think this is a tight game in New England, with some cold weather featuring a West Coast team traveling.

I'm on the Patriots to win - but I'm slightly different in how I want to bet it. The -3.5 number is a shy-away spot for me because I hate the hook. I'm more comfortable with the Patriots on the Moneyline and pairing it with a game script I really like in the form of the under.

New England hasn't faced many defenses like this. The Chargers can absolutely muddy things up, and for Maye, this is his first playoff game. Even if I believe he's that dude (and the potential MVP), the environment and opponent quality can still create a tighter, slower game.

The Patriots have been rolling lately, but this is a step up in opponent quality. No more Jets/Dolphins layups. New England wins, but it's closer and uglier than people want - something like 20-17, 23-20 territory.

Props:


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