NFL Sunday Betting Primer Picks & Player Props (Divisional Round)

by Andrew Erickson |
Jan 15, 2026

Sunday delivers the main event feel - bigger brands, bigger expectations, and the most pressure-packed games of the weekend. This is where Super Bowl contenders either prove they belong or start packing for Cancun. Coaching tendencies, playoff experience, and quarterback decision-making are magnified, and one bad quarter can undo an entire season.

From a betting perspective, Sunday is about separating motivation from market inflation. These lines are sharper, but not perfect - and the best value often comes from attacking specific mismatches rather than forcing a side. That's especially true once again in the prop market, where usage trends and playoff game scripts tend to repeat themselves.

5-Star NFL Props through 19 weeks:

55% Win Rate
+84.82 unit won
5.13% ROI

With game scripts becoming more predictable and rotations tightening, props often provide cleaner edges than sides or totals. Whether it's volume-based markets like rushing attempts or situational angles tied to pace and game flow, this slate is built for bettors who are willing to dig one layer deeper.

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Houston Texans @ New England Patriots

AFC Divisional Round

Erickson's Pick: Patriots ML (or Pats -2.5)

Confidence: ★★★

Drake Maye’s first NFL start last season? At home versus the Houston Texans (Week 6). Behind a patchwork offensive line that has four different starters from this year’s version. Maye still threw for three TDs (including his first NFL passing TD to Kayshon Boutte).

He played a ton of plays with his legs (38 rushing yards) and hardly looked out of place despite facing the league’s top defense in his first NFL action. That experience should help him in this rematch.

Maye used his legs versus a tough Chargers’ defense in the Wild Card round, hitting a season-high 66 yards. The last time he rushed for at least 50 yards? The last time he faced a top-10 defense was the Browns in Week 8. Maye has hit the Over on 35.5 rushing yards in three of his last five games (three straight Overs at home).

One of my favorite bets last week was the Under in the Patriots/Chargers game. LA was just the second top-10 defense the Patriots faced this season. Houston's elite defensive unit needs no introduction.

The Patriots’ offensive line will have to play much better than last week…specifically at tackle.

Will Campbell allowed a team-high six pressures, including two sacks, on 40 pass blocking snaps in the Patriots’ Wild Card win over the Chargers; just his fourth career game allowing multiple sacks (Next Gen Stats). Campbell allowed two pressures in 14 matchups against Tuli Tuipulotu, two pressures and a sack in 10 matchups against Odafe Oweh, one pressure in nine matchups against Khalil Mack, and one pressure and a sack in a singular matchup against Teair Tart. The rookie will have his work cut out for him against the Texans' fierce pass rush.

Would expect the Patriots to try and establish the run in some capacity to mitigate the Texans’ pass rush.

However, Houston’s run defense is also excellent. The Texans are allowing the second-fewest rushing attempts per game.

Versus the Chargers, TreyVeon Henderson had nine carries for 27 yards, while Rhamondre Stevenson had 10 carries for 53 yards. Stevenson played 62% of the snaps to Henderson's 41%.

Last 5 games - Stevenson has out-snapped Henderson in four of them.

Total opps:

Henderson: 74 (56%)
Stevenson: 59 (44%)

On the other side, I am slamming the under on Woody Marks.

You cannot run on a healthy Patriots run defense.

Twelve games with Milton Williams: 56.3 rushing yards allowed per game; 3.2 yards per carry allowed
Five games without Williams: 127 rushing yards allowed per game; 5.2 yards per carry allowed
In the Wildcard Round, Chargers RBs combined for 12 carries for 30 yards (2.7 YPC).

No RB had more than 60 rushing yards through the first 11 games they played this season. It looks like DT Khyiris Tonga will also return to the Patriots this week after being a limited participant in practice this week.

Between Tonga, Milton Williams, and Robert Spillane, this defense will be lights out versus the Texans’ rushing attack.

Take the Under on Marks, who might split carries with Jawhar Jordan (back at practice on Wednesday). Marks has gone under 60 yards in 2-of-3 games with Jordan in the lineup.

Going under 41 points was my strong initial lean on the game total.

Per Next Gen Stats: The Texans played in 10 games with fewer than 40 combined points in 2025, the second most such games in the NFL (only CLE had more with 11).

72% of their games have gone under 45.5 points.

However, after rewatching Maye versus the Texans from last season, I am a bit more optimistic that New England will be able to generate explosive plays.

Their defense can be had downfield as they rank just 14th in EPA/pass on throws of 20-plus air yards.

Maye’s mobility is the X-factor. He can buy time in the face of pressure. Unlike what we saw from an immobile Aaron Rodgers on Monday Night.

The Texans’ defense ranks 32nd against QB scrambles (last EPA/QB scramble allowed).

During the regular season, Maye tied for the 2nd-most total scramble yards this season (706) while Justin Herbert finished just two yards behind him in 4th (704). Herbert threw for five touchdown passes when scrambling, while Maye had none. Herbert’s 469 scramble rush yards led the NFL and Maye’s 423 ranked 3rd-most. Both QBs scrambled at top 10 rates this season, with Maye at 19.1% (4th) and Herbert at 17.8% (8th) according to Next Gen Stats.

We might see something similar to what the Colts offense was in Week 18, when Riley Leonard lit up this Texans defense. The 7th-round rookie QB went 8-of-13 for 133 yards and two touchdowns to Alec Pierce in the first half.

If the Patriots don’t have Christian Gonzalez (concussion protocol), that takes a major toll on their defense. Recall, when he missed the first three weeks of the season, the Pats went 1-2 overall and allowed 23 PPG. He was practicing on Wednesday, a good sign that he will play on Sunday.

However, Houston might be without star WR Nico Collins (DNP on Wednesday). He left Monday Night's game versus the Steelers after suffering a concussion. He missed two games this season (Week 8, 18) and five games last season (Weeks 6-10). They went 2-0 (1-1 ATS, and 1-1 O/U) in games without Collins (albeit against Mac Jones and Riley Leonard).

Last season, 3-2 ATS, 1-4 SU, 1-3-1 O/U.

All in all, without Nico Collins in the lineup: 3-4 SU, 4-3 ATS, and 2-4-1 O/U.

This line has moved a bit since it opened as more love has come in on the Patriots to as high as -3.5. I hate this hook from the Pats’ perspective.

In 15/18 games this season, the Texans have covered +3.5 (84%).

I liked this line more when it was Pat -2.5 (lookahead lines were Patriots -1.5 before Wild Card Weekend). And although I side with NE to win by an FG, that ultimately just leads to a push. Which, as a Pats fan, seems like a miserable way to watch this game.

So, unless the line moves to Patriots -2.5, I think I’d just take NE on the moneyline and move on. I think whichever side you are on in this game, just take the money line. Tease it with the game total UNDER 49.5 (78% hit rate for Texans games), which has hit in 14/18 games this season. Only four Houston games have gone over 50 points.

Trends:

CJ Stroud is 1-2 on the road in the playoffs (0-2 as a road underdog).
The Patriots are 6-4 ATS at home this season (9-0 on the road).
The Patriots have won each of their last eight Divisional Round games.
The Texans have won the first half in each of their last eight games.
The Texans have failed to cover the spread in nine of their last 10 road games when playing with a rest disadvantage.
Each of the Texans’ last five road games have gone UNDER the total points line.
2-7 O/U on the road this season
Six of the Texans' last nine games have gone UNDER the total points line.
24 of the Texans' last 36 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
Nineteen of the Texans’ last 33 wins have been by seven or fewer points (59%).
The Patriots have won 11 straight as favorites (10 wins this season by at least 3 points or more).
The Patriots have won 14 of their last 15 games (11 straight wins as favorites).
Twelve of the Patriots' last 16 home games have gone over the total points line.
The Texans have won each of their last 10 games (won 8 straight first halves).
Houston is 7-1 SU as a road favorite since 2024 (4-3-1 ATS) and have scored first TD in six straight as road favorites.
Houston as a road underdog, just 4-7 SU (6-5 ATS).

Props:

Los Angeles Rams @ Chicago Bears

NFC Divisional Round

Erickson's Pick: Rams -3.5

Confidence: ★★★★

Overall:

No game will be impacted more by the weather than Rams-Bears. At least that is what the narrative will be.

The forecast calls for potential snow and freezing temperatures (Real Feel of 5 degrees) per NFLWeather.com.

Rams QB Matthew Stafford is also dealing with a hand injury. His finger was bent backward versus the Panthers.

Rams head coach Sean McVay said Monday that Stafford is managing a sprain on the index finger of his throwing hand, but there are no concerns about his status for Sunday’s Divisional Round matchup against the Bears, Sarah Barshop of ESPN.com reports.

Still, we have seen the line move toward the Bears…most likely because of the weather and Stafford’s finger. It’s also a West Coast dome team traveling into a matchup where there is a real home-field advantage.

However, I do think this might be slightly overrated.

Chicago’s reliance on turnovers is unsustainable. The Bears’ defense intercepted 12 passes on dropbacks without generating pressure this season, the 5th-most in the NFL (NGS). +22 turnover differential. Chicago is 9-0 when they have at least two turnovers on defense, 3-6 SU with one turnover or fewer, and 2-7 ATS (both covers against Green Bay).

The “Anything But Bad News” Bears are the comeback kings. Caleb Williams has seven winning drives (per ESPN) this season, tied for the most with Broncos QB Bo Nix. The Bears have seven second-half comebacks: Packers x2, Vikings, Giants, Bengals, Commanders and Raiders. They have also only lost once following one of these comebacks this season: 4-2 ATS, 5-1 SU. However, that was after their first comeback win versus GB (Week 17 versus SF).

I think that too much of this matchup is about the QBs, when LA could dominate the trenches.

McVay said Monday that he’s “optimistic” regarding OG Kevin Dotson’s potential availability for Sunday’s NFC divisional-round game against the Bears.

However, the Bears’ offensive line could only be as lucky.

Bears head coach Ben Johnson said that LT Ozzy Trapilo suffered a patellar injury in Saturday’s 31-27 wild-card win over the Packers and won’t be available for the remainder of the postseason, Ian Rapoport of NFL Network reports.

Chicago might have to turn to Braxton Jones (activated off IR), but he hasn’t played since Week 4. Theo Benedet will probably start as he started in Week 18 at LT when Trapilo was last out.

Johnson also said after Saturday’s game that LB T.J. Edwards sustained a fractured fibula during the contest, and the linebacker isn’t expected to play again during Chicago’s postseason run, Jason Lieser of the Chicago Sun-Times reports. DT Andrew Billings was questionable to return to Saturday’s Wild Card round game against the Packers due to a hip injury, Adam Jahns of AllCHGO.com reports.

LA has two RBs who can run all over the Bears’ defense. Per Next Gen Stats, Chicago’s defense allowed 1.6 yards before contact per carry against opposing designed runs this season, the 2nd-most in the NFL. They contacted ball carriers at or behind the line of scrimmage on just 36.2% of those runs, the 3rd-lowest rate in the league. and stuffed them on 14.5% of rushes, the 5th-lowest rate.

Kyren Williams ranks first in the NFL in rushing success rate (51%) and Blake Corum ranks third (50%). In last year’s road playoff game versus the Eagles (also a snow game), Williams rushed 19 times for 106 yards.

When facing two-back sets this season, the Bears defense allowed the 3rd-highest rushing success rate (50.0%) and 11th-most yards per carry (4.4).
Despite running two-back sets on just 7.3% of their offensive plays, the Rams offense gained 5.6 yards per carry and recorded a 48.1% success rate out of those looks.

Chicago has been a great story this season, but I think this is where things come to an end. Turnover reliance and 4th-quarter comebacks can only continue for so long, especially when facing a superior team across the board. Again, had it not been for those two crazy wins over the Packers this season (when they were without Micah Parsons and Zack Tom), Chicago wouldn’t even be playing this week.

Give me the Rams laying the points. The Rams have the best record since 2023 as a road favorite (11-4 ATS) and 12-2 SU. 11-2 ATS versus all teams not named the Panthers.

No bigger discrepancy in my power rankings than Rams (No. 1) versus the Bears (No. 11). DVOA sees it similarly, with the Rams listed as No. 1 compared to the 9th-ranked Bears.

I like the Bills, Rams and Seahawks the most this week. Why? Because they are facing teams that ranked first (Denver), second/third (Bears/49ers) in wins above expectation this season (using Pythagorean wins).

As for player props:

Continue to attack the Rams’ defense with slot players (see Jalen Coker blow-up in Week 19).

Luther Burden ran 51% of his routes from the slot last week and caught 3 balls for 42 yards on seven targets (five in the first half).

Burden has at least three catches in nine straight games, including his last five with Rome Odunze in the lineup.

Last week versus the Packers, Caleb Williams found success targeting slot receivers, completing 11-of-16 passes for 176 yards and two touchdowns on such attempts (Next Gen Stats).

Colston Loveland recorded eight receptions for 137 yards on 15 targets against the Packers, with the majority of his production coming when he created separation. Loveland generated 111 yards on six receptions (10 targets) when wide open (3+ yards of separation), while adding 94 yards on four receptions (6 targets) on vertical routes. The rookie tight end particularly excelled against zone coverage, where he hauled in all eight of his receptions for 137 yards on 13 targets via Next Gen Stats.

Bryce Young's two highest success rates this season came versus the Rams' defense. Jalen Coker (Panthers slot WR) had two monster games versus the LA defense this season.

The Rams will also be down a CB as Ahkello Witherspoon (shoulder) was ruled out for the remainder of Saturday’s Wild Card game versus Carolina. He has been placed on IR.