NFL Sunday Night Football Betting Primer (Chargers vs. Steelers)
Sunday night means primetime spotlight, efficient lines and high visibility. The Chargers host the Steelers, coming off a strong defensive performance. Expect tight spreads, fewer hidden edges on sides-but props and team totals may offer better value once the public piles in.
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Sunday Night Football Betting Primer
Los Angeles Chargers vs Pittsburgh Steelers - Sunday, 8:20 PM ET
Erickson's Pick: Steelers +2.5
Confidence: ★★★★☆
Trends:
- The Steelers have been the first to 10 points in each of their last eight games.
- The Steelers have won eight of their last 10 Sunday games as underdogs.
- Each of the Chargers’ last four games have gone OVER the total points line.
- The Chargers have failed to cover the spread in five of their last six games.
- The Steelers have failed to cover the spread in 9 of their last 13 games.
- The Steelers are 5-3 toward the Over this season. All but one of their non-divisional home games this season have gone over the total.
- Each of the Chargers' last four games have gone OVER the total points line.
Overall:
Tough spot for the Bolts. Playing at home (despite not actually having any home-field advantage) with an extremely banged-up offensive line.
When OT Joe Alt has played fewer than 50% of the snaps...the Chargers are 2-3 straight up and 0-5 ATS (Yahoo Sports Inside Coverage Podcast).
His absence over the last several weeks is why the Chargers have struggled ATS, while their QB continues to take hits. OT Bobby Hart is also hurt, which is why thee team traded for Trevor Penning before the trade deadline.
According to Next Gen Stats
Since the Chargers drafted Alt in 2024, Justin Herbert has been pressured 10.6% more often, averaged 1.3 fewer yards per attempt, recorded a 15.9 lower passer rating, and averaged 1.7 fewer air yards per attempt with Alt OFF the field as opposed to ON. The Chargers offensive line has also been without Rashawn Slater all season, who suffered a season-ending injury during training camp. With both Alt and Slater ON the field since 2024, Herbert has faced pressure on just 31.7% of his dropbacks. With both OFF, his pressure rate has spiked to 43.8%.
Meanwhile the Steelers are coming off their best defensive showing of the year. Maybe it was just a one-time matchup or perhaps the league’s highest-paid defense is turning the corner.
They deployed Jalen Ramsey at safety, and that seemed to improve the defense (although the raw numbers suggest otherwise).
Per Next Gen Stats…
Ramsey aligned at safety on 61-of-73 defensive snaps in Week 9 (83.6%), his highest in a single game in the Next Gen Stats era (since 2016) and a stark difference to his 11.7% safety alignment in Weeks 1-8. Ramsey had never played more than 20 snaps at safety in any game since 2016, but the Steelers moved him to the back of the defense with Deshon Elliot on IR and the team allowing the 11th-most downfield passing yards in Weeks 1-8 (884). However, the Steelers still allowed 197 downfield yards against the Colts, the 3rd-most by any defense in Week 9. Across 47 coverage snaps as a safety in Week 9, Ramsey allowed two receptions for 12 yards on three targets.
Regardless if Ramsey’s deployment creates yardage for the Chargers, this game seems likely to be decided in the trenches. Pittsburgh should be able to get after Herbert and generate turnovers.
The Steelers have recorded the 2nd-quickest time to pressure in the NFL this season (2.53 seconds) while generating the 2nd-most quick pressures (66) and tied for the 6th-most unblocked pressures (29) – Next Gen Stats.
They also can negate him as a scrambler.
Per NGS…
Justin Herbert has scrambled to run on a career-high 7.1% of his dropbacks this season and leads the entire NFL in scramble rushing yards with 293. Herbert has recorded 10.9 yards per scramble rush and an 81.5% success rate when opting to tuck and run, both of which lead the NFL (min. 10 carries). The Steelers defense has been tough against scramble rushes in 2025, allowing the 2nd-fewest yards (67) while facing the 2nd-fewest attempts (11).
Prior to his 2 TD performance last week, Jaylen Warren had zero rushing TDs. I think he starts to go on a streak here versus a Chargers defense that ranks 3rd in highest percentage of TDs runs via rushing.
Another 5-star bet courtesy of the BP Prop Bet Cheat Sheet – Kimani Vidal UNDER 13.5 carries. Vidal ceded some work to Jaret Patterson late last week while also fumbling.
The Chargers RB is projected for just 11.5 carries. The last five RBs to play the Steelers have gone UNDER their rushing attempts projection.
Props:
Full SNF Card:
- Steelers +2.5