Navigate

NFL Sunday Night Football Betting Primer (Steelers vs. Ravens)

by |

Under the lights on Sunday Night Football, the NFL is giving us exactly what it wants to close the regular season: Steelers-Ravens with the AFC North on the line. It's a rivalry that never plays "normal" - it's messy, physical, and usually decided in the fourth quarter, regardless of what the records (or the spread) say. Pittsburgh gets the home stage, Baltimore brings the higher ceiling, and every snap feels like it could swing a division title.

If the Ravens lean into their identity and let Derrick Henry set the tone, it could be a long night for the Steel Curtain. Either way, throw the trends out - this rivalry always finds a way to get weird, and the winner walks out with the crown.

Sync your books for free here

Sunday Night Football NFL Betting Primer

Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers (SNF)

Erickson's Pick: Steelers +3.5

Confidence: ★★★

Trends:

  • The Steelers have won the first half in each of their last seven games at Acrisure Stadium.
  • Lamar Jackson has thrown at least one interception in each of his last seven regular-season appearances against the Steelers (DK Sportsbook).
  • The road team has covered the spread in each of the Ravens’ last six games.
  • The Ravens have won each of their last five road games.
  • The Ravens are 21-10 ATS on the road over the last two seasons.
  • The Ravens are 0-4 ATS after a win.
  • Ravens are 16-10 ATS as a road favorite in their last 26 appearances.
  • As road favorites…the Ravens are also 8-6-1 toward the Over since 2024 (10-5 toward the over on the road overall).
  • Each of the Steelers’ last five home games against the Ravens has gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Nine of the last 11 games between the Steelers and Ravens have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The Steelers are 8-7-1 toward the OVER this season.
  • Since 2024, the Steelers are 6-2 ATS at home (as a favorite) and 10-5 ATS overall at home.

Overall:

The winner is crowned the AFC North champion. The loser goes home. Lamar Jackson is expected to return in a winner-take-all contest. But no tight end Darnell Washington or wide receiver DK Metcalf for the Steelers in Week 18.

But do the Xs and Os really matter in an AFC North matchup where the underdogs always seem to come out on top?

Per VSIN: Underdogs are 6-5 SU and 9-0-2 ATS in the last 11 of Ravens-Steelers AFC North rivalry at Pittsburgh. 

In their Week 14 matchup, the Steelers won outright 27-22 as 6.5-point road underdogs.

Given the 3.5-point spread, I think this handicap is pretty simple. Take the Steelers with the points – and let others bet on Ravens ATS and who actually wins this contest.

This matchup is the ultimate "trust nobody, pick your poison" showdown, because both teams have shown the ability to sabotage themselves in high-leverage moments. The Steelers' offensive issues are magnified if they're missing key offensive playmakers, which increases the burden on an aging quarterback to create explosive plays that may no longer be consistently available. The Ravens, meanwhile, are the better team on paper, but they lack reliability in big spots and tend to drift away from obvious winning formulas. The counterpoint remains that if Lamar Jackson is fully back and Baltimore plays clean, the Ravens are the side with the higher ceiling - but the entire bet comes down to whether you believe they'll actually show up and do it.

Derrick Henry has recorded 94+ rushing yards in each of the Ravens’ last four games. Worth noting that Henry is also “just” 137 yards behind James Cook’s 1606 yards this season. Not impossible that the King reclaims his throne with another monster game in Week 18. He has 128 rushing yards or more in two straight games. Also has 94 yards or more in 3 straight versus the Steelers defense.

Jaylen Warren has forced a missed tackle on 29.4% of his rushes this season, the 4th-highest in the NFL (min. 100 rushes) per Next Gen Stats.  Thanks to his elusiveness, Warren has gained more yards than expected on 45.1% of his carries (8th-highest among RBs). His 3.8 yards after contact per carry ranks 7th-highest among the same group of running backs.

Warren has 64-plus rushing yards in back-to-back games. He is also 108 yards away from reaching 1,000 this season. He also has over 1.5 receptions in all but two games this season (87%). Without Metcalf or Washington, I’d expect plenty of targets for the Steelers’ RBs. That might be the best bet to take with the Steelers RBs in this matchup if the run blocking suffers without Washington. They combined for 10 targets and nine catches for 76 yards in this Week 14 matchup (both scored).

Kenneth Gainwell has one of the highest TD ratings for Week 18 (+180). He had 4 RZ carries in the 1st matchup versus the Ravens.

Props:


Try Premium for FREE in our mobile app

BettingPros App