NFL Sunday Night Football Primer: Picks & Player Prop Bets (Week 6)
Welcome to the final NFL betting article for the Week 6 NFL Sunday Slate from BettingPros! I'm Andrew Erickson, your guide to Week 6’s Sunday Night Football nightcap matchup between the Giants and Bengals. In this newly introduced standalone SNF breakdown, we're laser-focused on the highly anticipated showdown as the sixth week of Sunday football comes to a close. From expert insights on the spread and total to can't-miss player props, I'll help you craft the perfect single-game parlay to build off your earlier winnings and/or chase your losses from the early slate of games.
Get ready, folks-it's time to place those BETS. Let's dive into my top picks and player prop bets for Monday Night Football. Upset special? Not this time.
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Sunday Night Football Primer
Cincinnati Bengals @ New York Giants
Sides:
- The Giants are 9-4 ATS over their last 13 games.
- The Giants have lost eight of their last 11 road games.
- The Giants were the 6th-best team ATS at home in 2023 (5-2-1). They are 1-1 ATS at home this season.
- The Bengals are 12-6 ATS on the road.
- The Bengals have won 10 of their last 11 games against NFC opponents.
- Joe Burrow is 16-5 against the spread following a loss. Joey Covers.
- The Bengals have covered the spread in six of their last seven games against teams that held a losing record.
Totals:
- The Giants are 6-7 toward the over in the last 13 games.
- New York has scored 20-plus points in seven of their last 11 games.
- Four of the Giants’ last five games have gone UNDER the projected total this season.
- Five of the Giants' last six games have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Eight of the Giants' last 10 home games have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Ten of the Giants’ last 11 games against AFC opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Seven of the Bengals' last eight games as favorites have gone OVER the total points line.
- Nine of the Bengals' last 10 games have gone OVER the total points line.
Overall:
I’m not exactly sure what the NFL schedule makers envisioned putting Bengals-Giants for Sunday Night Football, but here we are. And oddly enough, the Giants enter the game with the better record at 2-3 as 3.5-point home underdogs. Go figure.
The Giants offense will be without wide receiver Malik Nabers for another week. Pass rusher Kayvon Thibodeaux is also out.
We saw the Giants shock the world last week with a big upset win against the Seahawks. We liked Big Blue last week to cover, and it came through with flying colors. The under would have also hit had it not been for the blocked field goal return for a touchdown to end the game. Sports gambling, right?
But I'm not nearly as confident about the Giants this week, even at home. Last week felt more like a bet against the Seahawks, given that they were playing off short rest against a team with additional rest.
Not the case in Week 6. I still think the Giants can have some success offensively given how bad the Bengals defense is, but doubling down on the Giants without Nabers feels like malpractice.
New York hit on downfield plays against Seattle, something they had not done the four weeks prior. Per Next Gen Stats, Jones had completed just 2 of 14 deep attempts for 67 yards and an interception in Weeks 1-4.
I also don't think the Giants’ defense will slow down the Bengals’ offense in any capacity. This offense is cooking and firing on all cylinders. The team cannot put pressure on Joe Burrow behind his offensive line. Per Next Gen Stats, Burrow has been pressured on just 21.5% of his dropbacks through the first five weeks, the lowest pressure rate faced in the league and the lowest in his career. The Giants have allowed a 78.2% completion rate against non-pressured pass attempts in 2024, the 3rd-highest in the NFL.
The Giants won't be able to slow down WR Ja'Marr Chase. They might try to shadow him with CB Deonte Banks. Per Next Gen Stats, Banks has shadowed the opposition’s top wide receiver in four of five games this season. Banks aligned across from CeeDee Lamb on all of his 12 routes from wide alignment in Week 4 but did not travel with Lamb into the slot. Banks has allowed four touchdowns as the nearest defender in coverage through the first five weeks (tied for most in the NFL) after allowing just four all of last season.
Look for Chase to find the end zone (yet again).
New York has played well at home dating back to last season, but I think they are just going to be overmatched in this spot. Joe Burrow finds ways to rebound after losses (76% ATS) and cover against "bad" teams. The Giants don't have the firepower to win this game in a shootout despite how bad the Bengals’ defense might be. Note that the Bengals will get DT Sheldon Rankins back to help bolster the run defense.
Props:
Per DraftKings Sportsbook, Ja’Marr Chase has scored at least one touchdown in each of the Bengals’ last five road games against NFC opponents.
Per Next Gen Stats, since returning in Week 3, Tee Higgins has led the Bengals in target share (28.0%) and air yards share (41.0%). Higgins has faced off coverage on 60.0% of his routes this season, his highest rate in a season since 2020. Higgins has recorded 2.1 yards per route this season against off-coverage (12th over that time span, min 50 routes)
Per Next Gen Stats, Wan’Dale Robinson leads the NFL with 41 targets short of the sticks this season, 11 more than the next closet player. Robinson has recorded 29 receptions on targets short of the sticks for 209 yards and two touchdowns. His 7.3 yards of average route depth is the shallowest among wide receivers in 2024 (min. 100 routes).
Joe Burrow has thrown at least two TD in each of his last four games.
Daniel Jones has rushed for under 35.5 rushing yards in all but one game this season. Only two QBs the Bengals have faced have rushed for more than 35 yards. Only two QBs have gone OVER their rushing prop against the Bengals this season.
Tight ends Mike Gesicki (two for 31) and Erick All Jr. (two for 10) weren't featured last week. I know it was disappointing for Erick All Jr. compared to the last few weeks, but his usage was still encouraging. He played more snaps than Mike Gesicki at 52%, even if he ran fewer routes. Don't write off the rookie tight end just yet. The Bengals love him as a receiver and blocker. His time will come. He's gone over 17.5 receiving yards in three of his last four games.
I was on the Theo Johnson TD train a few weeks ago, and I think this island game is the perfect spot to go back at long-shot odds.
Johnson was productive last week, catching 5 of 5 targets for 48 yards, averaging 9.6 yards per reception, with a long of 22 yards. Johnson plays a full-time role on offense (74% route participation) and will definitely be on the field running routes in the red zone. The rookie tight end is also an athletic specimen, giving him an opportunity to score from outside the red zone. Cincy has allowed three TDs to tight ends this season.
My Picks: