NFL Sunday Night Football Primer: Picks & Player Props (Lions vs. Texans)
Welcome to the final NFL betting article for the Week 10 NFL Sunday Slate from BettingPros! I'm Andrew Erickson, your guide to Week 10's Sunday Night Football nightcap matchup between the Lions and Texans. In this standalone SNF breakdown, we're laser-focused on the highly anticipated showdown as we hit second half of the NFL regular season. From expert insights on the spread and total to can't-miss player props, I'll help you craft the perfect single-game parlay to build off your earlier winnings and/or chase your losses from the early slate of games.
Get ready, folks-it's time to place those BETS. Let's dive into my top picks and player prop bets for Sunday Night Football.
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Sunday Night Football Primer
Detroit Lions at Houston Texans
Sides:
- The Texans have failed to cover the spread in six of their last 10 games and are 3-6 ATS this season.
- The Texans are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games as favorites (5-11 ATS as a favorite since the start of 2023).
- Twelve of their last 15 wins have been by seven or fewer points.
- Houston is just 13-13 against the spread over its last 26 games.
- Houston is 2-4 as road favorites. 5-10-1 ATS as a favorite.
- The Texans have lost each of their last 10 road games against NFC opponents.
- HOU is 10-5-1 ATS as a road underdog (70%) and 3-5-1 ATS as home favorites.
- The Texans have won each of their last six home games.
- The Texans have covered the spread in each of their last seven games as underdogs following a loss.
- They are 8-19-1 ATS as underdogs (30%), while 5-7 ATS (42%) as home underdogs ATS.
- The Lions are 20-8 ATS as favorites. They have been 70%-plus ATS favorites since the start of 2023 and are 16-6 ATS over their last 22 games. When in doubt? Lions ATS for the win.
- The Lions have covered the spread in nine of their last 10 road games.
- The Lions have covered the spread as favorites in 11 of their last 13 games.
- The Lions have won their last 12 games against opponents on a winning streak.
- The Lions have won 10 of their last 12 home games.
- The Lions have been the first to 15 points in each of their last 12 games.
Totals:
- The Texans have gone under in 18 of their last 28 games, which featured them playing many offenses averaging fewer than 20 points per game.
- Houston is 2-7 O/U this season. Seven of the Texans' last eight games have gone UNDER the total points line. 0-4 O/U at home (40.5 points per game).
- Per DraftKings Sportsbook, each of the Texans’ last seven games as home favorites has gone UNDER the total points line.
- Thirteen of the Lions' last 19 games have gone OVER the total points line.
- The average total in the Lions' last 23 home games has been 54.5 points; 74 percent (17/23) of the games have scored at least 51 points.
- Seven of the Lions' last 10 home games have gone OVER the total points line.
Overall:
There's not a lot of overwhelming conviction from the trends that suggest the Texans can pull off the upset here against the Lions. Houston's typically a team that has not fared well as underdogs in general or just ATS overall. They have been one of the most "overrated" by the betting market, dating back to last season.
And the Lions…well they need no introduction. You know they are good. The question is are they good enough to win by more than field goal on the road against the Texans? I tend to think so.
Houston still might be without WR Nico Collins, even though he was activated off the IR with his hamstring injury. Considering how bad the Texans’ offense has been without him, I would have expected more emphasis on his return if he was truly going to play in Week 10.
Per Next Gen Stats, C.J. Stroud has recorded a higher passer rating, higher completion percentage, more yards per attempt, thrown to open targets more often, and generated more EPA with Nico Collins on the field this season. Over the last two seasons, Stroud and Collins have connected for 309 yards on dropbacks lasting longer than 4.0 seconds, the most by any QB-receiver duo over that span (+23.8 EPA, 1st).
Without the Texans' most explosive playmaker, I'm not sure how they can keep up with Detroit.
Because their defense has been able to generate pressure even without Aidan Hutchinson.
Meanwhile, the Texans have allowed the 4th-highest pressure rate against the blitz this season (54.0%) while taking the 2nd-most sacks (15) per Next Gen Stats. They also added pass rusher Za'Darius Smith before this year's trade deadline.
And when it matters most in the red zone, the defense tightens up (4th-lowest red-zone conversion rate faced). The Lions pass defense has allowed the fewest EPA per dropback (-0.97) and 2nd-lowest completion percentage (34.2%) on attempts in the redzone this season, while forcing a tight window at the 5th-highest rate (28.9%).
The only chance the Texans have of winning this game comes down to their defense. Because they can also create their fair share of pressure. The Texans defense has recorded the 2nd-highest pressure rate (42.0%) this season, including a league-leading 40.4% pressure rate when not blitzing.
Defensively, Houston ranks 4th in fewest yards per play allowed. But the Texans have the 29th-ranked red-zone defense this season, allowing the highest passing TD rate (second-most TDs to WRs).
The trends on both sides confidently back the under on the game total, with Houston home games going in that direction. Love the under at the bloated 48.5 total.
Props:
Sam LaPorta has been targeted on 14.9% of his routes this season, a decrease from 24.7% in 2023. According to Next Gen Stats, LaPorta has recorded the 6th-lowest target rate among tight ends with at least 100 routes this season. Houston has allowed the fewest catches to TEs this season.
Amon-Ra St. Brown has scored a touchdown in each of the Lions’ last six games and is +850 for the first TD score.
Jared Goff has attempted 30-plus pass attempts once this season.
John Metchie III ran a route on 63% of dropbacks against the Jets, and his role shouldn't change even with a Nico Collins return. Metchie operates mostly from the slot, and that is where the Lions have allowed the most fantasy points to WRs this season. Metchie already has two red-zone targets this season.
As for the Lion's long-shot TD props, you need to look at their WRs. Houston bleeds WR TD production. Tim Patrick is a big-bodied red-zone target who might not get accounted for in the red zone. Patrick has had his moments, and I don't think his snaps completely evaporate with the return of Jameson Williams.
My Picks: