NFL Sunday Night Football Same Game Parlay: Chargers vs Chiefs (Week 11)
The Chiefs and Chargers will square off in Los Angeles on Sunday night. It’ll be the second meeting between these teams. The Chiefs came out on top 27-24 back in Week 2. This is close to a must-win for the Chargers as far as an AFC West title goes. If the Chiefs come out on top, they’ll have a three-game lead and the head-to-head tiebreaker with the Chargers.
The Chiefs are favored by 5.5 points, and this game has the highest total of the week at 51.5. In what should be a high-scoring game, there’s also plenty of value in prop markets. My three-leg parlay offered on Draftkings is below:
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Leg 1: Austin Ekeler six-plus Catches (+110)
Ekeler pulling in at least six catches is one of the most sure props in football that’s still being offered at plus-money. Since Week 2, he has put up at least six receptions in all but one game. Ekeler has done a huge amount of damage in the passing game in Chargers’ losses – in their four losses this year, he has averaged nine grabs on 10.5 targets per game.
When the Chargers get down, opposing teams bring more heat against Justin Herbert, leading the QB to bail out to an Ekeler checkdown in order to avoid a sack. With the Chargers coming into the game as sizeable underdogs, odds are we’ll find them in that situation often on Sunday.
This bet is especially good against the Chiefs’ defense, which has been one of the worst in the league at defending RBs in the pass game. The Chiefs allow 7.1 catches for 50.5 yards per game to opposing RBs. These marks rank worst and second-worst in the NFL respectively.
I expect Ekeler to get plenty of volume in the passing game on Sunday night, and he should easily be able to convert on that volume and pull in six passes. I’d prefer a more aggressive line if it was offered. Since it’s not, I’ll happily take the +110 price on six catches.
Isiah Pacheco over 54.5 Rush Yds (-140)
After being a trendy fantasy sleeper coming into the season, Pacheco took a while to get going. Following the Chiefs’ Week 8 bye, it became clear they were focusing their rushing attack around him rather than Clyde Edwards-Helaire.
Neither RB got much work in Week 9 against the Titans, but last week, Pacheco was clearly the workhorse of the backfield. He posted 82 yards on 16 carries against a Jaguars’ defense that ranks top-eight in rushing yards and yards per carry allowed to opposing RBs.
On Sunday night, Pacheco should have a much easier time posting big yardage numbers. The Chargers’ defense allows 5.7 yards per carry – by far the most in the NFL. They’ve allowed opposing RB groups to post at least 125 yards in six of their last seven games.
In their last three games, teams have really exploited the Chargers’ weak run defense, as opposing RBs have combined for 91 carries and 506 yards on the ground. I think Pacheco gets plenty of work on Sunday night and should go well over 55 rushing yards.
Travis Kelce over 74.5 Receiving Yards (-130)
In a Chiefs’ offense where different receivers contribute every week, the one constant has been Kelce. Since Week 4, he has posted at least 80 receiving yards in all but one game. In that one game, he scored four TDs. Kelce is the focal point of the Chiefs’ offense no matter who they’re playing or the game situation.
Kelce will have a favorable matchup Sunday night against a Chargers’ defense that ranks in the bottom quarter of the league in yardage allowed to TEs. The Chargers have allowed 55.6 yards per game to opposing TEs, but this has come on relatively low volume. They’ve been prone to allowing big plays to the position, as their 13.5 yards per catch allowed to TEs illustrates. That’s the worst mark in the league.
Kelce is a big-play threat, and with WRs Juju Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman out for the game, I expect him to get a ton of targets. Given his high catch rate and ability to post big plays, 75 or more yards is a very attainable mark for Kelce.
Parlay Odds: +475
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