NFL Sunday Night Football Same Game Parlay: Eagles vs. Packers (Week 12)
On Sunday night, the Packers will head to Philadelphia to take on the Eagles. This is a big game for both teams, as Philadelphia looks to maintain its top spot in the NFC playoff race while Green Bay hopes to cling to its playoff chances.
The Eagles come into the game as 6.5-point favorites and, on paper, they’re the better team. That said, Aaron Rodgers and the Packers are almost always a tough matchup. I’ll be playing this three-leg parlay offered by Draftkings for Sunday night’s game.
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Leg 1: Total Points U49.5 (-150)
At first glance, this game looks like it could be high scoring. Philadelphia averages 26.3 points per game, good for 4th most in the NFL. Green Bay has Aaron Rodgers running the show on offense. They’ve come around offensively in the last couple of weeks, as rookie WR Christian Watson has emerged as a threat in the passing game. If you take a deeper look, however, this game could be a defensive showdown once the teams take the field.
These two teams allow opposing QBs to throw for the least yards per game in the NFL. The Packers’ defense allows 203.2 yards per game to opposing QBs, while the Eagles allow 202.1. I expect it to be difficult for either team to make explosive plays when they have the ball given the issues these defenses cause opposing QBs.
These teams also aren’t afraid to run the ball. The Eagles average 32.9 rush attempts per game, the 2nd most in the NFL. Green Bay is 18th in rush attempts per game but has a two-headed backfield of Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon that they’ll be able to lean on if they do have trouble throwing the ball. I expect this game to have a low number of possessions, with both teams feeling comfortable playing a physical, low-scoring game. This alternate total helps us get some key results (48 or 49 total points) on our side – I’m loving the price offered here.
Leg 2: Aaron Rodgers U244.5 Pass Yds (-160)
As mentioned earlier, the Eagles hold opposing QBs to the lowest average passing total in the NFL. While Aaron Rodgers is usually the kind of QB that could overcome a defense this good, this year’s Packers team has struggled to see the passing game success they’ve enjoyed in past years. Rodgers has gone over 245 yards just once in his last five games, against a Lions’ pass defense that ranks bottom-five in the NFL in terms of yards allowed to opposing QBs.
Philadelphia, on the other hand, hasn’t allowed an opposing QB to go over 245 passing yards since Kyler Murray in Week 5. While they’ve played a relatively easy schedule of opposing QBs since then, their defense has been exceptional in stopping the opponent’s pass game. This has come even in blowout games where opponents are putting up a huge number of passes to stay competitive.
Given Rodgers’ struggles this season, I think the Eagles defense will represent a massive challenge for him. I’d be surprised if he puts together a big day through the air.
Leg 3: Miles Sanders O79.5 Rush Yds (+165)
While the Packers do have a great pass defense this year, their rush defense can be exploited by the Eagles’ run game. Green Bay averages 119.9 rushing yards allowed to opposing RBs – the 4th highest total in the NFL. The Packers’ 4.85 yards per carry allowed to opposing RBs ranks 5th highest in the league. Good teams have exposed them on the ground this season.
Miles Sanders hasn’t gotten huge volume at RB this season, but he’s been very efficient with his carries. Over his last three games, Sanders has 194 yards on 42 carries, good for 4.6 yards per carry. This has come even as the Eagles’ last two games have seen them down double-digits and forced to come back. I expect the Eagles to hold a lead on Sunday, which should lead to a volume increase for Sanders.
If Sanders can see slightly higher volume than he has recently, and Green Bay’s rush defense is suspect as usual, I expect Sanders to put up some big yardage total on Sunday night.
Parlay Odds: +525
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