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NFL Super Bowl LX Betting Primer Early Picks & Player Prop Bets

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There's been real turnover at the top of the NFL this season, given that both teams playing in the final game had preseason Super Bowl odds longer than 60-1.

Still, Super Bowl LX brings back a familiar matchup.

The (MY) New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks meet on the sport's biggest stage for the first time since Super Bowl XLIX - a game that still lives in NFL lore.

That 2015 matchup ended with one of the most iconic plays in Super Bowl history, when Malcolm Butler sealed the game at the goal line. Or from Seattle’s perspective, when their offense decided not to give the ball to Marshawn Lynch.

Fast forward to 2026….and these game narratives write themselves.

Different quarterbacks. Sam Darnold is looking to bury the ghosts, finally.

Different coaches. Mike Vrabel is looking to win a Super Bowl as the HC of a team he won multiple championships with as a player.

Different eras. Tom Brady? Drake Maye.

But the stakes are the same - legacy, leverage, and a Lombardi Trophy.

This Super Bowl sets up as a true chess match: structure versus explosiveness, discipline versus pressure, and two teams that have taken very different paths to arrive at the same destination.

And we can finally get the question answered that every football fan is dying to know.

Did the Patriots play anybody good this season?

5-Star NFL Props through 21 weeks:

  • 55% Win Rate
  • +81 units won
  • 4.76% ROI

Top performing markets: Rushing attempts and passing attempts.

From individual player props to total points and game spreads, this Super Bowl showdown is stacked with compelling betting angles. Let’s break down what to watch for and how to maximize your bets for the NFL’s grand finale.

This primer is an early look at Super Bowl LX, so keep an eye out for updates as we get more information regarding injuries the week of the game.

Also, will add more novelty props as we get closer to Super Bowl Sunday.

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NFL Super Bowl LX Betting Primer

New England Patriots vs. Seattle Seahawks

Erickson's Pick: Pats +4.5 (Sprinkle Pats ML +200)

Confidence: ★★★

Trends:

  • The Patriots have won each of their last nine road games (9-0 on the road this season and 7-2 ATS).
  • The Patriots have covered five straight as road underdogs.
  • The Patriots have covered the spread in five of their last six games.
  • The Patriots have won 13 straight as favorites.
  • The Patriots have won 16 of their last 17 games.
  • The Seahawks have won their last nine games.
  • Seattle has won 13 straight as favorites.
  • Seven of the Seahawks’ last eight postseason games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The underdogs have covered the spread in each of the last five Super Bowls.
  • The Seahawks have scored the first touchdown in each of their last five games.
  • The Patriots have scored last in each of their last four games.
  • The Seahawks have won 14 of their last 15 road games (15 straight as road favorites)
  • The Seahawks are 14-2 SU on the road since the start of 2024.
  • However, Seattle is just 6-3-1 ATS as a road favorite since 2024.
  • Seattle is 12-4 ATS as a favorite this season (15-1 SU).
  • The Pats are 4-2 SU as underdogs this season (0-2 as home underdogs).
  • Seattle is 14-8 toward the OVER as a favorite since 2024 (10-6 this season O/U).
  • The Pats are 4-2 O/U as an underdog this season.

Overall:

Seattle will be the fourth straight top-10 defense New England will face in the postseason – and their offense hasn’t been as great the last three weeks, averaging just 15.6 points (overall PPG boosted by the pick-six versus the Texans).

The Patriots' offensive line has been shaky in pass protection, and that won’t get easier versus Seattle's defensive front. Seattle’s pass rush will be problematic: 5th in pressure rate versus the Pats' 25th-ranked offensive blocking rate allowed.

Drake Maye has taken at least five sacks when facing top-10 defenses this season. I do like the Over on the Seahawks' game sack total (waiting on a line to drop).

However, if the Pats QB can buy time with his legs, scramble and escape the rush, he will inflict damage downfield versus this Seahawks’ secondary.

Maye used his legs versus a tough Chargers’ defense during Wild Card Weekend, hitting a season-high 66 yards. The last two times he has rushed for at least 50 yards were when he faced top-10 defenses. Maye has gone over 40 rushing yards in four of his last seven games. He went well over his rushing yards mark versus the Broncos, rushing for 65 yards on 10 carries.

I expect him to attack downfield (like Matthew Stafford did in his last two matchups versus Seattle).

The Seahawks allowed 226 deep passing yards to Matthew Stafford and the Rams offense in the NFC Championship Game, the 3rd-highest mark by a defense in any game in the last decade. They are the only team to allow at least 200 yards on deep passes in a playoff game and win since at least 2016, according to Next Gen Stats.

Seattle ranks just 14th in EPA/pass attempt on passes over 20-plus air yards.

For the Patriots' defense...the script is simple.

"Shut down" Jaxon Smith-Njigba with CB Christian Gonzalez. More like "limit him," but you get my point.

Slow down JSN and then neutralize the Seahawks' run game. They want to run the football (boasting one of the league’s highest run %), but the Pats' healthy run defense cannot be run on. Shut down Kenneth Walker III with the run defense.

In fact, both teams figure to struggle running the ball. Both defenses are top-3 in EPA/rush allowed. Hence why you could see more pass attempts in the second half…depending on how committed each offense is to the run. Considering this, you could see a lower-scoring first half as both teams try to establish the run.

NE: 12-8 O/U in the first half this season. SEA: 6-13. First half total is listed at 23.5 points.

Also, it’s a Super Bowl between two defensive-minded head coaches.

Back to fading these RBs…

  1. Twelve regular-season games with Milton Williams: 56.3 rushing yards allowed per game; 3.2 yards per carry allowed.
  2. Five games without Williams: 127 rushing yards allowed per game; 5.2 yards per carry allowed.
  3. In the Wildcard Round, Chargers RBs combined for 12 carries for 30 yards (2.7 YPC).
  4. In the Divisional Round, Woody Marks totaled just 17 carries and had only two successful runs (14.3% success rate), while the Patriots' defense allowed just 41 yards on 21 designed carries.
  5. In the AFC Championship Game, RJ Harvey carried the ball 13 times for 37 yards; most of which (32 yards) came AFTER initial contact.
  6. No RB had more than 60 rushing yards through the first 11 games the Patriots played this season.

Without the run, New England can force Sam Darnold to beat them, but as he showed last week, he can and will rise to the occasion.

Darnold was pressured on 35.0% of his dropbacks against the Rams, completing five of his 11 pass attempts for 102 yards and a career-high three touchdowns, his first multi-touchdown game under pressure with Seattle.

The Seahawks QB showed up in the biggest moment. Against the Rams, no less, who have had his number in the last two seasons.

Still, it's worth noting the Rams' defense had fallen off in the second half of the season, particularly in their secondary. LA allowed over 27 PPG in their last nine games played.

And the 49ers, the other team Seattle has played recently, had nobody left on their defense because of injuries.

So, although the overarching conversation is largely about the Patriots' cupcake schedule, I do think Seattle's schedule deserves some attention. Particularly, the defenses their offense has faced.

Please don’t get me wrong, beating the Rams twice in shootouts is no easy feat. However, this is exactly WHY Mike Macdonald was brought to Seattle: To beat Sean McVay and Kyle Shanahan.

And that’s exactly what he has done, especially after a few rounds. Seattle has dominated in rematches against their NFC West rivals.

After facing the Rams, Seattle averaged 28.5 PPG. 2-0 SU and 1-1 ATS (both wins by at least six points). Macdonald has THRIVED in rematches. Seattle’s HC is undefeated (8-0) in his head coaching career in same-season rematches.

In their second/third matchups versus the three NFC West teams...Seattle averaged 33.4 points per game. Just 18.3 in the first matchups (1-2 SU, ATS).

Still, there's no denying that Seattle is the best team the Patriots have faced all season (even if they did almost lose to Philip Rivers at home). Special Teams is also highly in favor of Seattle.

It's the reason why I can understand the Seahawks' blow-out narrative. Either Seattle crushes the Pats (also factoring in Drake Maye's shoulder injury), or New England wins a one-score game.

That's how I see this game most likely playing out.

Therefore, I like the values on the Pats Moneyline +190 or Seahawks -6.5 +105 depending on which side you prefer. The normal spread is in no man's land, in my opinion.

My early vibes and stance are on the Pats +4.5 because of how these teams have played so close throughout the 2025 season.

Before the 2025 Conference Championship games even kicked off, Seattle was listed at -3.5 in a hypothetical future Super Bowl 60 matchup against the Patriots.

Both teams thrive on the road, so I don't think either team is at an advantage given the neutral site.

I do like New England's slight edge in Super Bowl experience from players to coaches: Milton Williams, Mike Vrabel, Josh McDaniels, Mack Hollins and Carlton Davis.

Seattle has some former Rams – Cooper Kupp, Cam Akers – with SB experience, but not much else.

All in all, this game will most likely come down to turnovers, as it just does with any football game. That all being considered, give me the underdog.

If you want to mess around with some alternatives for this game, Seattle +4.5 has hit at a 100% rate this season.

Again, people are going to build some crazy Same Game Parlays. At least be sure to take one that will help fill out your required legs to qualify for some sportsbook boost.

Seattle +4.5 is that extra leg to add. Again, the Hawks haven't lost a game by more than four points this season. Even that was all the way back in Week 1.

The Patriots haven't lost a game by more than seven points. No losses by more than one score. The Pats have covered +3.5 in 91% of their games played this season.

As for their totals...game totals finishing under 52.5 have been the most profitable (71.4%). Truly only fails in true shootouts (OT / elite QB duels). I don't think this Super Bowl will fall into that category. Pair those two for odds at -165 (SEA +4.5).

Under 49.5 (67%). The 47.5-45.5 range is where you start splitting hairs - which doesn't help given the current total for this game.

52.5 also works great for the Pats as an alternate total line to bet (81% hit rate toward the under). Also, OVER 38 points have been hit at the same rate.

These teams, all season, have done the following:

  • Don’t get blown out
  • Play one-score Super Bowl-style games
  • Live in the low-to-mid 40s total range

Teaser/Alt Line Options:

  • Seahawks +4.5 + UNDER 52.5 (-165)
  • Seahawks +4.5 + Patriots +6.5 (+128)
  • Patriots +6.5 + UNDER 52.5 (+120) - my favorite

BEST TOTAL SCORE RANGE: 41-48 total points

The two defenses are allowing 18 PPG on average. Offenses are scoring 28.6 PPFG on average. 46.6 PPG total.

Seattle games average 46.3 PPG. Patriots games average 44.5 points per game.

I think this total is super sharp, so I don't have a strong lean. Although, as the 'Undertaker', the game total Under is usually my approach. Especially when there is some value with the line at 45.5 points.

Now to the player props. As alluded to in the intro, I’ll add more closer to kick off.

Cooper Kupp has gone OVER 2.5 catches in four of his last six games. 4-36 on six targets in the NFC Championship Game.

George Holani played 34% of the snaps in his first game since Week 12. He split routes run nearly 50/50 with Kenneth Walker III, earning four targets (3-27). Two targets in the first half during the 2-minute drill (also had a drop on a third-down play). The Patriots are allowing the fifth-most catches to running backs this season. In the AFC Championship Games, RJ Harvey and Jaleel McLaughlin combined for five receptions on eight targets.

Kenneth Walker has gone over 21.5 receiving yards in 4-of-5 games. Has also recorded 29+ receiving yards in each of the Seahawks’ last three games. The Pats have allowed receiving yards OVER to five straight RBs.

I also like the Over on the NE RBs in the passing game. Seattle has allowed a league-high 5.7 receptions per game to RBs (6th-most yards at 37.6 per game).

I understand the hesitation to bet any Over with TreVeyon Henderson after he barely played last week...but so much of that was circumstantial. The Patriots were going uber conservative on offense. They had more of Rhamondre Stevenson because of his chops in pass protection.

If New England is going to win versus Seattle, they know that they have to generate explosive plays.

Considering their offense has been unable to deliver consistent 10-plus play scoring drives (two total in the last three games), they will need to gain chunk yardage. Seattle has the No. 1 defense on third downs (32.3%). Henderson is a perfect 6-0 toward the Over on his receptions when the Patriots have been underdogs this season.

I also like his anytime TD odds given +EV on the bet. +550 is too long a number for the Patriots RB that ranks second in total RZ touches among players in this game. JSN (12) is the only player with more TDs than Henderson this season (10).

Seattle is allowing the 4th-most catches to TEs this season (6.2/game). 6th-most yards allowed (63.5).

Hunter Henry ranks first among all non-RBs in red-zone targets in this game for either team (second-most games with a TD). Henry also went OFF versus Seattle in the 2024 matchup, going 8-109 on 12 targets.

The 2025 Seahawks’ defense is nicknamed Dark Side and they love to play a lot of zone coverage.

Typically, versus zone coverage, you see more targets to RBs/TEs as underneath options. Seattle's defense ranks 31st in YAC allowed this season between the Bengals/Cowboys (4th-lowest average depth of target faced).

DeMario Douglas finished second in YAC/reception this season. Also trails just JSN in first TD scores (3 vs 5) among players in this game.

As for first TD bets, I like looking at the Seattle pass-catchers. The Patriots allow a high rate of passing TDs, given how good they are at defending the run.

AJ Barner is the likeliest at +1300, but I like the long-shot odds with guys like Eric Saubert and Elijah Arroyo. Saubert caught the game-winning two-point conversion a few weeks ago for the Seahawks and is constantly praised for doing all the "right" things by his teammates and coaches.

Arroyo was a healthy scratch in the NFC Championship Game, but he is arguably the best pure receiver of the TE grouping. Saubert/Arroyo are both +8000 to score first, so I think it's worth a small unit bet for an early first TD sweat.

Props:

    

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