NFL Survivor Pool Advice for the Divisional Round: Picks & Predictions (2023)
In last week’s survivor pool advice article for Wild Card Weekend, our safest pick of the Bengals and other selections to consider of the 49ers and Bills all advanced, while two of our three risky plays (Chargers and Vikings) both lost outright. Those that followed our advice by picking the Bengals are in a great spot entering the Divisional Round, as Cincinnati may be playing its last game this week as it is a +5-point underdog.
With just four games on this week’s slate, we rank our survivor pool plays in order of confidence and the most strategic way to navigate the rest of the playoffs.
Check out our Divisional Round Betting Guide >>
NFL Survivor Pool Advice for the Divisional Round: Picks & Predictions (2023)
Here is a list of odds for all the favorites to win their matchups in the Divisional Round (odds courtesy of FanDuel).
Divisional Round Survivor Pool Picks (starting with our strongest play)
Philadelphia Eagles (-350)
Philadelphia stumbled to a 1-2 finish after a 13-1 start to the regular season, coinciding with Jalen Hurts’ strained shoulder. Hurts was clearly not at 100% in Week 18 against the Giants backups, and many Eagles fans are worried after they narrowly beat Davis Webb and a slew of other New York starters 22-16. However, the Giants have lost nine consecutive games in Philadelphia, and New York did not enter the playoffs with the most momentum either, finishing the regular season 3-6-1 after a 6-1 start. The Eagles have the edge at nearly every position on the field, and their defense will not allow New York to score 30+ points and accrue 400+ yards for the first time since 2019 like the Vikings did. And with Philadelphia’s ceiling much lower amid Hurts’s injury concerns, now is the time to use the NFC’s No. 1 seed in survivor pools.
San Francisco 49ers (-186)
The 49ers bring an 11-game winning streak into the Divisional Round. Their 11 double-digit wins this season are the most in the NFL, and they held 14 opponents to 19 or fewer points (also the best in the league). While the Cowboys looked impressive in their Monday night win over Tampa Bay, they should not be overvalued for taking care of business against a team under .500 entering the playoffs and one who finished the worst ATS season in Tom Brady’s illustrious career. San Francisco is built to withstand Dallas’s league-best pressure percentage (it entered the Buccaneers game leading the league with pressures on 39% of dropbacks). In addition, Brock Purdy has looked unflappable in his young career and became just the third quarterback (joining Matthew Stafford in 2011 and Kurt Warner in 1999) to throw for 300+ yards and have four or more total touchdowns in a playoff debut.
Buffalo Bills (-235)
Buffalo overcame some sloppiness in the Wild Card round and became the first team in the Super Bowl era to win a playoff game after allowing at least seven sacks and committing three or more turnovers (the last four teams that did so all lost). Despite Josh Allen getting pressured on 42% of dropbacks (the second-most this season), Cincinnati’s offensive line issues are even more concerning entering this week. The Bengals could be without three starters from that unit after Jonah Williams (dislocated knee) and Alex Cappa was ruled week-to-week. Cincinnati had zero explosive plays and still found a way to edge Baltimore, but the Bengals will likely have to find much more offense if they are to beat the Bills. We have Buffalo low on this list as survivor pool contestants would be wise to save it for the Super Bowl, where it would likely be favored over any NFC representative.
Kansas City Chiefs (-430)
The team most likely to win this week is also the lowest on our list, as one needs to be smart about how it navigates its playoff bracket and save better teams for later rounds. Andy Reid’s track record off a bye week is well known, so Kansas City is not in danger of losing, despite facing a Jaguars team that has won six straight games (five straight regular season wins in a single season for the first time since 2005). For the last two seasons, Jacksonville has had the worst record in the league, and if Trevor Lawrence throws four interceptions again, the Chiefs will not let the Jaguars out of the hole they would bury themselves in as the Chargers did.
Depending on who you think will win an AFC Championship Game matchup between the Bills and Chiefs, one could reverse the order of the Bills and Chiefs picks.
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.