NFL Survivor Pool Advice for Week 10: Odds, Picks & Predictions (2022)
Unless you used the Buffalo Bills in survivor pools last week, you likely made it out of Week 9 unscathed. Buffalo was the only one of the top eight favorites to lose, and just four underdogs won outright, with two of those wins coming against the two smallest favorites (Arizona Cardinals and Las Vegas Raiders). However, just because the Bills were the only big favorite that lost, it does not mean that Week 9 was completely devoid of drama.
Like last week, my selections for this week will be broken down into the following categories: safest picks, riskier plays that will be popular, and contrarian plays to beat a large pool. Even though survivor pool rules say you cannot pick the same team twice, I will outline multiple scenarios if bettors wish to navigate their own path.
Here is a list of odds for all the favorites to win their matchups in Week 10 (odds courtesy of FanDuel).
Safest Picks
Philadelphia Eagles (-510), Kansas City Chiefs (-430), New York Giants (-275)
The Eagles and Chiefs sit atop their respective conferences at a combined 14-2. Thus, it is not a coincidence that Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts have become the top two favorites for MVP, especially after Buffalo’s Josh Allen may be dealing with an arm injury for the foreseeable future.
Philadelphia should have no issues with a Washington team that has scored 17 or fewer points in six of its last seven games, even though it has won three of its previous four. In addition, Kansas City should come out victorious against a Jacksonville team that is 1-20 SU in its last 21 road games. However, from a value perspective, the Giants are the smartest play at this stage in survivor pool competitions, given that there are few more opportunities this good with which to use them.
New York has a scheduling advantage coming off a bye, making us more confident in the Giants at home with the improved play of Daniel Jones. Jones has benefited from New York’s run-heavy attack (263 rushing attempts are the third-most in the league). And while it may not be sustainable to have Saquon Barkley continue to account for 38% of the team’s total offense, he should thrive for at least one more week against a Texans defense that ranks dead-last in the league with 180.6 rushing yards allowed per game.
Riskier Plays That Will Be Popular
San Francisco 49ers (-300), Las Vegas Raiders (-275), Miami Dolphins (-205)
San Francisco should be tailor-made to dominate a Chargers defense that has allowed 200 or more rushing yards in three of the last four games. However, even though Los Angeles is dealing with injuries at the wide receiver position with Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, this is still an offense capable of scoring plenty of points. Austin Ekeler is coming off his tenth career game with a receiving and rushing touchdown in the same game (t-5th most all-time), and he clearly has a connection with Justin Herbert.
The Raiders take on a seemingly vulnerable Colts team that just fired Frank Reich and replaced him with Jeff Saturday right out of the analyst booth. However, coming into this season, since 2003, teams that fired their head coach midseason went 15-17 SU and 17-15 ATS in the very next game after the coaching change. In addition, Las Vegas has already lost three games this season when leading by 17 or more points and is 0-5 in one-possession games. Thus, the Raiders cannot be trusted, even against a Colts team in disarray.
The Dolphins are 6-0 in games when Tua Tagovailoa starts and finishes, and Miami is looking to build off the momentum of a road win at Chicago, where it scored touchdowns on four of its first five drives. However, it has won three consecutive games by a total of 13 points, and we would prefer to see it win games more convincingly before we pick it to beat a Cleveland team rested off a bye.
Contrarian Play to Beat a Large Pool
Chicago Bears (-152)
Despite losing five of its last six games, Chicago makes for an interesting contrarian play in survivor pools. The Bears have dominated the Lions, winning seven of the previous eight head-to-head matchups. And Justin Fields is playing the best football of his young career, accumulating nine total touchdowns and throwing one interception in his last three games. Fields has also been a nightmare to defend on the ground, as his 178 rushing yards last week were the most by a quarterback in a regular season game in NFL history.
Detroit’s Jared Goff has a 13-3 TD-INT ratio at home but has struggled mightily on the road with four touchdowns and four interceptions. While the Lions snapped a five-game losing streak last week, we are not getting overly excited about a win over a struggling Green Bay team and one that lost several key offensive players to injury mid-game.
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.