NFL Survivor Pool Advice for Week 11: Picks & Predictions (2022)
Considering the underdogs went 8-6 SU last week, there were likely to be many casualties in survivor pools everywhere. The most shocking upset was Washington’s MNF win at Philadelphia, as the Eagles were last week’s biggest favorite at -510 moneyline odds. The fifth, sixth, and seventh-biggest favorites (Raiders -275, Bills -270, Cowboys -225) all lost as well and likely claimed victims of some contestants who were making contrarian plays. Those who picked Dallas were especially upset at its overtime loss to Green Bay, considering the history that was made in that defeat.
Like last week, my selections for this week will be broken down into the following categories: safest picks, riskier plays that will be popular, and contrarian plays to beat a large pool. Even though survivor pool rules say you cannot pick the same team twice, I will outline multiple scenarios if bettors wish to navigate their own path.
Here is a list of odds for all the favorites to win their matchups in Week 11 (odds courtesy of FanDuel).
Safest Picks
Baltimore Ravens (-625), San Francisco 49ers (-360)
The Panthers have lost eight consecutive road games and have been one of the worst ATS teams dating back to the start of last season. Thus, Carolina is not a threat to win in Baltimore against a Ravens team that is rested off a bye, despite Baltimore covering just one of its last five games off a bye week and going 0-4-1 ATS in its previous five home games. The Ravens have an extra week to get Mark Andrews and Gus Edwards healthy, and if either player suits up, they make an offense that ranks fourth in the league in scoring at 26.1 ppg even more dangerous.
The 49ers are the second-biggest favorites at most sportsbooks to win the NFC, despite not even leading their own division. That is because there is optimism that the offense can reach new heights with the addition of Christian McCaffrey, while the defense is the healthiest it has been in quite some time. Arizona is 10-4 since the start of last season with DeAndre Hopkins in the lineup, but there are still concerns about Kyler Murray’s hamstring that kept him out of last week’s game. And while Colt McCoy is 3-1 in his career as the Cardinals starting quarterback, he is unlikely to lead Arizona to a big offensive day if he is under center, given that San Francisco has held seven of its nine opponents to 19 or fewer points.
Riskier Plays That Will Be Popular
Buffalo Bills (-345), Philadelphia Eagles (-295), Washington Commanders (-165)
The Bills are likely to be a popular play if survivor pool contestants have yet to use them, given that many do not expect them to lose three games in a row. However, given the weather concerns and Buffalo’s lack of commitment to a running game, the Browns are live underdogs with Nick Chubb in what is being projected as brutal conditions.
Indianapolis looked revitalized offensively last week under Matt Ryan after averaging 9.7 points per game during a three-game losing streak. With the upset win over the Raiders, Ryan improved to 4-3-1 as the starter (Sam Ehlinger went 0-2), and Ryan’s presence seemingly did wonders to get Jonathan Taylor going as well. Taylor is coming off his first game with either 80+ rushing yards or a touchdown since Week 1, and his fourth career rushing touchdown of 60+ yards last week tied Lenny Moore’s franchise record. As a result, the Colts are suddenly much more realistically capable of an upset over a Philadelphia team that the Commanders just exposed.
Speaking of Washington, they are likely to be a popular pick, given they are facing the 1-7-1 Texans (1-7-1), who have averaged just 15.8 points per game during a four-game losing streak. However, scoring may not be an issue when facing a Commanders team that ranks 24th at 19.1 points per game and one that has scored more than 20 points just twice since Week 2. Houston’s Dameon Pierce continues to be a long bright spot in its offense, as he is coming off a 100+ scrimmage-yard day for the sixth time in the previous seven weeks. In addition, the Texans are 0-6 this season when Davis Mills is intercepted, but that should not be an issue when facing a Commanders defense that has just four interceptions (tied for 27th) on the season. Houston is 4-1 ATS after an ATS loss and is capable of an upset this week.
Contrarian Play to Beat a Large Pool
Cincinnati Bengals (-225)
I am not in love with this pick, given the nature of it being a divisional game with the favorite on the road. In addition, Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin is 15-4-2 ATS as a home underdog and 14-7 outright. He is also 8-0-2 ATS (and 8-2 SU) in such games over the previous five seasons. However, the Bengals have won three of the last four meetings, and much has changed since losing 23-20 to Pittsburgh in Week 1, namely that Kenny Pickett is now the Steelers starting quarterback.
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.