NFL Survivor Pool Advice for Week 12: Odds, Picks & Predictions (2024)

Favorites went 11-3 SU in Week 11, with the Seattle Seahawks pulling a NFC West upset of the San Francisco 49ers, making the 49ers the only top-seven favorite to lose last week.

Our Week 11 survivor pool picks once again hit on a contrarian play as the Los Angeles Rams won as road favorites at the New England Patriots. Entering Week 12, survivor pool contestants should have one eye to the future and be mapping out a tentative plan to navigate the last seven weeks of the regular season.

Like last week, my selections for this week will be broken down into the following categories: safest picks, riskier plays that will be popular, and contrarian plays to beat a large pool. Even though survivor pool rules say you cannot pick the same team twice, I will outline multiple scenarios if bettors wish to navigate their own path.

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NFL Survivor Pool Advice: Week 12

Safest NFL Survivor Pool Picks

Kansas City Chiefs (-700), Detroit Lions (-400), Houston Texans (-390)

Making the case for the Chiefs to win this road game against the Panthers got a lot easier now that Kansas City will be looking to get the bad taste of its first loss out of its mouth. Three of Kansas City’s final six games are against division rivals, while two of the other three are back-to-back late-December games against two current division leaders (Texans and Steelers). If you are fortunate enough not to have used Kansas City yet in survivor pools, now is the time to do so.

The Lions turned in an offensive performance for the ages last week. Detroit is coming off its largest margin of victory (46 points) in franchise history, after racking up a franchise record 645 total yards in a win against the Jaguars. The Lions are the fifth team in the Super Bowl era to amass 640-plus total yards and score 50 or more points in a game, and they scored touchdowns on all seven drives with Jared Goff at quarterback. Goff is coming off his second career game with a perfect quarterback rating, and while a road game at the Colts should be a lot tougher than a home game against the Jaguars, it is not enough to worry about Detroit losing outright.

The Texans are coming off a short week after playing on Monday Night Football. But they are a perfect 3-0 in division games and face a Titans team that is off to their worst start (2-8) since 2015. Tennessee has gone six consecutive games with 20 or fewer points for the first time since 2005-06, and is 0-6 this season when Will Levis finishes a game.

Riskier NFL Survivor Pool Picks That Will Be Popular

Washington Commanders (-480), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-235), Denver Broncos (-230)

The Commanders have a distinct scheduling advantage on extended rest (having played last Thursday) playing against a Cowboys team off of short rest. But to think that Washington deserves to be a bigger favorite than the Lions this week is blasphemous, considering that we are not 100% sure how Jayden Daniels is affected by a rib injury a couple weeks back.

Tampa Bay will be a popular pick in survivor pools in a road matchup against the Giants. But New York evaluated its quarterback situation throughout the bye week and chose to bench Daniel Jones in favor of Tommy DeVito, who at one point won three consecutive games in replace of the injured Jones and Tyrod Taylor last year. I want no part of the Buccaneers in survivor pools, as New York’s decision to start Tommy DeVito could be a spark the team needs.

The Broncos are coming off their biggest margin of victory (32 points) since 2018. But they are 4-0 against the NFC South and 2-5 against the rest of the NFL. Denver will be a popular survivor pool play as contestants fade a Raiders team amid the league’s longest active losing streak (six games). I’d look elsewhere before backing the Broncos, but they are not the worst choice if none of the other safer or contrarian picks are available.

Contrarian NFL Survivor Pool Picks to Beat a Large Pool

Miami Dolphins (-370)

The Dolphins are coming off consecutive wins for the first time this season after scoring a season-high 34 points in a win over the Raiders. Miami snapped a three-game home losing streak, and Tua Tagovailoa finished his first game with three touchdowns since Week 8 of last season. Miami should prove to be too much for a Patriots team that is 3-8 or worse in consecutive seasons for the first time since 1992-93, and who has allowed 400 or more total yards four times this season.

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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.