NFL Survivor Pool Advice for Week 14: Odds, Picks & Predictions (2024)

Favorites went 24-5 SU in the last two weeks, and they were especially successful last week, going 14-2, with the top 10 moneyline favorites going a perfect 10-0.

Those still alive in survivor pools seemingly face a difficult task this week, as many of the league’s best teams (Lions, Bills, Chiefs) are four-point favorites or less. Because of that, there are several teams in this week’s column that one might never think to use in a survivor pool but are necessary to use this week because of how the schedule shakes out.

Like last week, my selections for this week will be broken down into the following categories: safest picks, riskier plays that will be popular, and contrarian plays to beat a large pool. Even though survivor pool rules say you cannot pick the same team twice, I will outline multiple scenarios if bettors wish to navigate their own path.

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NFL Survivor Pool Advice: Week 14

Safest NFL Survivor Pool Picks

Philadelphia Eagles (-650), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-330)

The Eagles have matched their longest winning streak (eight games) in four seasons under Nick Sirianni, and Sirianni is now the fifth coach in the last 30 years to start 10-2 or better in three straight years. Jalen Hurts has played incredibly well during the eight-game winning streak, recording 20 total touchdowns and two turnovers. Saquon Barkley continues to make his MVP case, as he is the second player with 1700 or more scrimmage yards in the first 12 games with a team (joining Eric Dickerson). The Panthers followed two straight wins with two three-point home losses to the Chiefs and Buccaneers. While things are looking up for Carolina, asking it to go on the road to beat an Eagles team that has allowed 15.3 points per game during their winning streak is a much tougher task.

The Buccaneers needed a game-tying field goal in regulation to force overtime last week, where they eventually beat the Panthers. Tampa Bay now has consecutive wins for the first time since starting 2-0, and Bucky Irving is the first Buccaneers running back with 150-plus scrimmage yards in back-to-back games since Doug Martin in 2015. Having played last Friday, Tampa Bay does face a Raiders team off extended rest, but Las Vegas has lost eight straight is 1-6 on the road, and could be deflated after a missed opportunity to beat the Chiefs.

Riskier NFL Survivor Pool Picks That Will Be Popular

Pittsburgh Steelers (-295), Miami Dolphins (-270), Cincinnati Bengals (-250), Tennessee Titans (-190)

The Steelers are coming off their most points in a game (44) since 2018 and their most points against the Bengals since 2000. But they are still facing a Browns team that they lost on the road to 24-19 in Week 12. With this being their fourth consecutive division game and with a potential lookahead spot to a road game with Philadelphia next week, I do not want any part of Pittsburgh in survivor pools this week.

Miami will be a popular survivor pick when it hosts the division rival Jets this week. New York has lost eight of its last nine games and is now 1-6 under interim head coach Jeff Ulbrich while being assured of its ninth straight losing season, extending a franchise record. However, this falls into the risky play category because the Jets have lost six games by six or fewer points this season, and the Jets have a similar point differential (-43) to the Dolphins this year (-34) even though it appears the two teams are headed in opposite directions.

The Bengals have now lost an NFL record four games when scoring 33 or more points, while the rest of the league has three losses when scoring 30 or more this season. That leaky defense has me staying away from Cincinnati as a road favorite on Monday Night Football, even if the Bengals are 4-1 against teams under .500 this season (0-7 against teams currently over .500).

Jacksonville has matched its longest losing streak under head coach Doug Pederson (five games), and has now lost at least 10 games for the fifth time in the last seven seasons. Despite that, it is not usual for a three-win team like the Titans to be 4.5-point favorites, especially against a division opponent.  Oddsmakers clearly do not believe in Mac Jones despite him throwing for 235 yards and leading the team to two second-half touchdown drives in relief of the concussed Trevor Lawrence. But it will not take much offense from the Jaguars to pull this road upset, as the Titans have scored 20 or fewer points in seven of their last eight games. 

Contrarian NFL Survivor Pool Picks to Beat a Large Pool

New Orleans Saints (-240)

The Saints are coming off their first loss under interim head coach Darren Rizzi (2-1) after losing 21-14 to the Rams last week. But the Saints defense played well in spurts, shutting out the Rams in the first half for just the second time under Sean McVay. The good news for the New Orleans offense is that Alvin Kamara is coming off his eighth game this season with 100 or more scrimmage yards, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling has four touchdowns in his first four games with the Saints.

It remains to be seen if New York will have Drew Lock or Tommy DeVito under center. But the Giants have lost seven straight games, are 0-6 at home for the first time since 1974, and last week was the only time they led in a game at any point since Week 5.

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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.