NFL Survivor Pool Advice for Week 2: Picks & Predictions (2022)

Things got dicey for survivor pool contestants in Week 1, as it was a historic week for underdogs to start the NFL season. Underdogs went .500 outright (8-8) in Week 1, and five of the top six favorites either lost or tied, eliminating a vast majority of survivor pool contestants everywhere in the process. However, readers who followed our advice with our “riskier picks” and “contrarian play” avoided these landmines and the dubious distinction of being eliminated from their contests after the first week.

As Ben Fawkes explained on Twitter, it was not just in the NFL this week where sportsbooks made a killing.

Like last week, my selections for this week will be broken down into the following categories: safest picks, riskier plays that will be popular, and contrarian plays to beat a large pool. Even though survivor pool rules say you cannot pick the same team twice, I will outline multiple scenarios if bettors wish to navigate their own path.

Here is a list of odds for all the favorites to win their matchups in Week 2 (odds courtesy of FanDuel).

Safest Picks

Los Angeles Rams (-590), Green Bay Packers (-460), Cleveland Browns (-255)

The Rams had some flaws exposed in Week 1 against Buffalo, namely two new starting offensive linemen, as the unit allowed seven sacks and 15 quarterback hits on Matthew Stafford. In addition, the 31-10 final score was not indicative of how the game played out, as Buffalo had costly turnovers deep in Los Angeles territory that could have made the deficit even larger. However, the Rams have three extra days to prepare for the Falcons, who do not possess a pass rush as elite as Buffalo’s. Los Angeles is still 9-2 in its last 11 games and is the most trusted of the three double-digit favorites on the Week 1 slate.

It is too early for Aaron Rodgers to tell people to “R-E-L-A-X” after a 23-7 Week 1 drubbing at Minnesota, but playing at the Vikings is a lot different than a home game at Lambeau Field against the Bears. Rodgers is 23-5, including the postseason in his career against Chicago. In addition, his teams are 20-7 ATS against the Bears in the regular season, returning bettors a 44.8% ROI. Chicago is riding high after a Week 1 upset of the 49ers, but let’s see how Justin Fields and company do against another NFC powerhouse this week, but this time without a monsoon affecting the game.

For those that wish to save the more elite teams that are double-digit favorites for later in the season, a great alternative is Cleveland in its home opener against the Jets. New York again will have Joe Flacco under center, and though he passed for 307 yards against the Ravens, it came as a result of 59 pass attempts as the team struggled to get a running game going. Many will prefer to wait to pick Cleveland until Deshaun Watson returns from his 11-game suspension. But there is no guarantee Watson will look like his former self right out of the gate, so one can trust Jacoby Brissett in this matchup, especially since running backs Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt will be counted upon heavily anyway.

Riskier Plays That Will Be Popular

Denver Broncos (-480), Buffalo Bills (-420), San Francisco 49ers (-390)

Denver is coming off a short week and an emotionally draining loss to the Seahawks in Russell Wilson’s return to Seattle. And though Wilson publicly defended Nathaniel Hackett’s decision to attempt a 64-yard field goal at the end of the game instead of going for a first down, it is fair to wonder if there is dissent among the rest of the team for that call. On the other hand, the Texans looked more competitive in Week 1 than in years past, so we will wait for a better spot with the Broncos after Wilson is more accustomed to his new surroundings.

The Bills are near double-digit favorites against a Titans team that was upset by the Giants at home in Week 1. However, Tennessee was still the AFC’s No. 1 seed last year, and the Titans have beaten the Bills each of the previous two seasons. In addition, Buffalo has two games against the Jets and a slew of easier opponents remaining, so there is no need to use them in survivor pools against a team that was a Super Bowl threat a year ago.

The weather mitigated any advantage the 49ers had over the Bears in Week 1, as the rain came down in buckets and made footing incredibly difficult. Thus, San Francisco should be able to run its offense much more smoothly at home against Seattle. However, this is still Trey Lance’s fourth start, and Seattle’s Geno Smith is 9-0 ATS in his last nine. Therefore, we prefer to wait to see better things from Lance before backing the 49ers in survivor pools.

Contrarian Play to Beat a Large Pool

Detroit Lions (-130)

With five teams favored by at least 9.5 points this week, one, in theory, should not need a “contrarian play” to get them through Week 2. However, some insist on gaining that competitive edge by not using the best teams early, so the Lions are an intriguing counter to the most popular picks this week. Commanders quarterback Carson Wentz and the rest of the Washington offense is not built to expose Detroit’s defense like Jalen Hurts, and the Eagles did in Week 1. In addition, Detroit scored the most points (35) of any team that lost in Week 1, and Washington is just 1-4 in its last five games against NFC opponents. 

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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.