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NFL Survivor Pool Advice for Week 3: Odds, Picks & Predictions (2026)

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For the second week in a row, one of the NFL’s top two Moneyline favorites lost outright. But the carnage extended further in Week 2, with two of the top three favorites (Buccaneers and Chargers) and four of the top eight favorites overall taking a loss. Last week’s NFL survivor pool advice got through the safest pick of the week (49ers) and nailed our contrarian play for the second consecutive week. That has given our readers a big leg up, as we have only used the Raiders and Eagles thus far. Hopefully at this point you haven’t suffered the same fate as several Circa Sports survivor pool contestants.

Read on for our best NFL survivor pool advice for Week 3.

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NFL Survivor Pool Advice for Week 3: Picks & Predictions (2026)

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Here is a list of odds for the top 10 favorites to win their Week 3 matchups.

Week 3 NFL Moneyline Odds

TEAM ODDS
Kansas City Chiefs -900
San Francisco 49ers -485
Buffalo Bills -340
Detroit Lions -305
Seattle Seahawks -305
Green Bay Packers -290
Cincinnati Bengals -185
Philadelphia Eagles -180
New York Giants -175
New Orleans Saints -175

Safest Picks

Kansas City Chiefs, San Francisco 49ers, Detroit Lions

The Chiefs practically played five quarters of football in taking their overtime game against the Colts on Sunday Night Football down to the last second. But the Dolphins look like a real threat to go 0-17 this season.

With how many injuries there were to starting quarterbacks last week (Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels to name a few), I wouldn't put anyone off backing Kansas City this early while Patrick Mahomes is healthy. Miami has started 0-2 for the third straight season. And with the Raiders a surprising 2-0, there aren't many AFC West games I'd be comfortable using the Chiefs in later in the season.

San Francisco seemingly gets hit by the injury bug harder than most teams annually, and this season its wide receiver corps is already decimated heading into Week 3. But the 49ers can overcome that, especially since eight different players caught passes in their Week 1 win. The 49ers shouldn’t lose to a Cardinals team that is 1-11 in their last 12 divisional games.

Detroit was at a big disadvantage last Thursday night, coming off a game where its defense was on the field for 86 plays, and facing a hyped Bills team in the first game at their new stadium. The Lions got three extra days of rest to catch their breath and prepare for a Jets team that would've been 2-0 if not for a fourth-quarter collapse against the Packers.

But poor weather in New Jersey last Sunday likely had a lot to do with the Jets playing Green Bay close, and New York doesn't have the offensive firepower to stay with Detroit in a track meet indoors. Detroit is a smart survivor pool play now, as it is projected to be a bigger home favorite this week than they were in any week last season, except for their Week 14 contest against the Titans.

Risky Popular Plays

Seattle Seahawks, Green Bay Packers, New York Giants

Many people will look to take advantage of Washington’s quarterback injury this week, with Marcus Mariota filling in for Jayden Daniels. But for as inefficient as Mariota looked in relief last week, he should fare better with a full week of practice under his belt. In addition, he averaged 17.4 fantasy points per game over seven starts last season, which would have placed him QB14 at that pace.

Green Bay overcame a 10-point fourth-quarter deficit to survive the Jets in overtime. The Packers narrowly avoided a seventh straight loss dating back to last season (including the playoffs), and will now be a popular pick on a short week against the 0-2 Falcons.

I'm avoiding Green Bay, as Atlanta could be getting a healthy Michael Penix Jr. back after the team pulled Cooper Rush last week in favor of rookie Jack Strand. Atlanta hasn't run an offensive play inside the red zone this season, but I'd still prefer to use the Packers when they have a healthy Micah Parsons back on defense. Prior to last week, the team was 9-4-1 when Parsons played and allowed 20.1 points per game. They are 0-5 while allowing 29.8 points per game when he doesn't.

The Giants will still be a popular play against the 0-2 Titans, even though Jaxson Dart won’t be under center. While I have confidence (unlike most) in former No. 1 pick Jameis Winston, it is the other injuries to New York’s key players (Brian Burns, Malik Nabers, Andrew Thomas) that have me concerned.

Contrarian Play to Beat a Large Pool

New Orleans Saints

This would certainly qualify as a contrarian play as we’re opposing the surprising 2-0 Raiders. But New Orleans finally plays its home opener after an impressive split of road games against Detroit and Baltimore.

New Orleans has scored 48 points in the second half and overtime this season, and is outscoring opponents 25-3 in the fourth quarter. I also have confidence in Tyler Shough, who is 5-2 in his last seven career starts after starting 1-3.

Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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