NFL Survivor Pool Advice for Week 4: Odds, Picks & Predictions
Here is a list of odds for all the favorites to win their matchups in Week 4, along with top survivor pool targets and teams to reconsider this week.
NFL Survivor Pool Advice
| TEAM | ODDS |
| San Francisco 49ers | -800 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | -425 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | -400 |
| Dallas Cowboys | -250 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | -250 |
| Minnesota Vikings | -200 |
| Denver Broncos | -165 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | -150 |
| New Orleans Saints | -180 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | -167 |
| Buffalo Bills | -142 |
| Cleveland Browns | -130 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | -145 |
Safest Picks
San Francisco 49ers (-800), Kansas City Chiefs (-400), Los Angeles Chargers (-250)
This might be the week to buckle down and use one of the NFL’s best teams (the 49ers or Chiefs), given the overall lack of quality options further down the odds leaderboard. San Francisco has the luxury of extra rest this week after playing last Thursday night. We are still making the 49ers a safe play despite facing a Cardinals team that scored on their first five possessions (two touchdowns, three field goals) against the vaunted Cowboys defense. Perhaps Dallas had culture shock getting used to life without cornerback Trevon Diggs, who is now out for the season with a torn ACL. But this is still an Arizona team that had lost nine consecutive games and six straight home games before beating Dallas. We do not expect it to beat San Francisco on the road, as Brock Purdy has won eight straight regular season starts, and the team has won 13 consecutive regular season games in all.
New York Jets fans are already up in arms that head coach Robert Saleh declared coming into this week that Zach Wilson will remain their starting quarterback, and it doesn’t seem like any calls to veterans around the league have been placed. As long as Wilson is under center, the Jets will remain a team relying on their defense to win games. New York has scored 22 or fewer points in eight straight games and has just two offensive touchdowns this season, and that will not cut it against an offense as high-powered as Kansas City’s.
The Chargers are a couple of bounces away from being 3-0, as their first two losses were by a combined five points. It may seem risky to put your survivor pool life on the line with a team that has had all three games decided by four or fewer points. Still, quarterback Justin Herbert looks like a bonafide MVP candidate after throwing for 939 yards and posting a 6-0 TD-INT ratio. At the same time, the Raiders have a quarterback issue on their hands, as Jimmy Garoppolo is ruled out for this one. Meanwhile Josh Jacobs is averaging 2.4 yards per carry, neither of which gives confidence that the team can take advantage of the Chargers’ leaky defense.
Riskier Plays That Will Be Popular
Philadelphia Eagles (-425), Dallas Cowboys (-250), Minnesota Vikings (-200)
Philadelphia’s defensive front should be licking its chops to face a Washington Commanders team that allowed nine sacks and committed five turnovers against the Buffalo Bills last week. In fact, Buffalo had the second-highest pressure rate in Next Gen Stats history in that game. However, Commanders quarterback Sam Howell is still a respectable 3-1 in his young career, and one of Philadelphia’s three regular-season losses last year was a 32-21 loss to Washington in which the Commanders ran for 152 yards and held the Eagles to 264 total yards.
Many will be cautious in using the Dallas Cowboys in survivor pools just one week after they lost as the biggest favorites of the week. Dallas scored just one touchdown in five red zone possessions last week, and now a stingy Bill Belichick-coached defense comes to town. Those looking for a silver lining in picking the Cowboys can take solace in the fact that since the start of last season (incl. playoffs), Dallas is 2-6 on grass and 13-1 on turf.
The Vikings-Panthers matchup is one of two on the Week 4 slate between winless teams. Minnesota has lost its three games by 13 total points and is 0-3 in one-possession games after finishing 11-0 in the regular season in such games last year. The silver lining is that Kirk Cousins is the fifth quarterback with 325-plus passing yards and two or more touchdown passes in each of the first three games of a season. But we have trepidation that the Vikings may get in their own heads if this game is close late, and Panthers wide receiver Adam Thielen should be able to give his coaching staff great insight into the tendencies of his former team.
Contrarian Play to Beat a Large Pool
Denver Broncos (-165)
Many will suggest we need to get our head examined after tipping the Broncos as a contrarian play just one week after their defense was torched for 70 points and 726 total yards (the second-most in NFL history) by the Miami Dolphins. And while Broncos head coach Sean Payton is 0-3 for the first time since 2016 as head coach of the Saints, Chicago may be one of the few teams in a worse position than them. The Bears are the only team to lose all three games by double digits this season, and they have allowed 25-plus points in 13 consecutive games, which is tied for an NFL record. Matt Eberflus is 3-17 as Bears head coach, and the team is amid a franchise-worst 13 straight losses, so survivor pool contestants could do much worse than picking Denver if they were determined to continue to save some of the NFL’s elite teams for later in the season.
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.