NFL Survivor Pool Advice for Week 4: Picks & Predictions (2022)
Carnage struck once again in survivor pools last week, as the top three moneyline favorites on the board (Chargers -320, Chiefs -290, Bills -245) all lost outright. Perhaps you avoided the landmine with the Chargers in fear of Justin Herbert’s iffy status, but there was sure to be plenty who picked them, citing the Jaguars’ 18-game losing streak entering the game. Three undefeated teams (Chiefs, Bills, and Buccaneers) all lost, and just one winless team remains in the league. Thus, if you are alive in your survivor pools entering Week 4, kudos to you!
Like last week, my selections for this week will be broken down into the following categories: safest picks, riskier plays that will be popular, and contrarian plays to beat a large pool. Even though survivor pool rules say you cannot pick the same team twice, I will outline multiple scenarios if bettors wish to navigate their own path.
Here is a list of odds for all the favorites to win their matchups in Week 4 (odds courtesy of FanDuel).
Safest Picks
Green Bay Packers (-500), Philadelphia Eagles (-270)
You know it will be a tough week in survivor pools when only one team has greater than -270 odds. It may seem blasphemous to oppose Bill Belichick’s New England Patriots with the unquestioned safest pick. But given Mac Jones’ ankle injury he suffered in the fourth quarter of last week’s loss to the Ravens, the Patriots will not have enough firepower to compete at Lambeau. New England’s backup is Brian Hoyer, who is just 16-23 in his 13-year career as a starter. Meanwhile, Green Bay is 41-11 in the regular season under head coach Matt LaFleur. They are .500 or better through three games for the eighth consecutive season and will not lose this home game against a backup quarterback who is engineering what was a struggling offense, to begin with.
The Eagles have started 3-0 for the first time since 2016, primarily because of their ability to start strong in games. Philadelphia has scored 24 first-half points in all three contests thus far, and quarterback Jalen Hurts has thrown for 300+ yards and scored three total touchdowns in back-to-back games. Jacksonville looks like it is headed in the right direction under new head coach Doug Pederson, who would like nothing more than to win in his return to Philadelphia, where he won a Super Bowl as Eagles coach. However, the Jaguars are coming off their first road win since 2019 at Oakland. Though they are coming off their highest-scoring game (38 points) in three seasons, they are not likely to upset the Eagles, who are getting excellent production on both sides of the ball.
Riskier Plays That Will Be Popular
Los Angeles Chargers (-235), Pittsburgh Steelers (-178)
Many will ignore Los Angeles’ poor result last week and pick them to beat the Texans on the road despite Justin Herbert’s injury. Since the start of last season, Houston is 4-0 versus Jacksonville and 5-26-1 against the rest of the NFL. However, until Herbert looks pain-free, which he may not be all season, we cannot justify a play on Los Angeles in this spot. Not to mention, the Chargers just lost one of the best offensive linemen in the league for the season in Rashawn Slater, who started at left tackle for all 19 games since being drafted No. 13 overall in 2021.
The Steelers are 0-6 in the six games star defensive end T.J. Watt has missed in his career, and he will be out again for this game as he remains on injured reserve with a pectoral injury he suffered a couple of weeks ago. In his absence, the Steelers pass rush has been non-existent, and their run defense has also suffered, surrendering 171 yards on the ground to the Browns in their Thursday night matchup. Pittsburgh is coming off a season where their quarterbacks combined for a Total QBR of 36 (27th in the NFL). Things have not looked better under Mitch Trubisky, which prompted head coach Mike Tomlin to have to answer questions about a possible quarterback change after Week 3. While Tomlin has an excellent track record as an underdog, his teams are just 82-94-5 ATS as favorites, covering in just 46.6% of games. Meanwhile, the Jets may get a spark this week with the expected return of quarterback Zach Wilson, who has missed the first three weeks because of a knee injury he suffered in the preseason.
Contrarian Play to Beat a Large Pool
Detroit Lions (-230)
The reason for contrarian plays in survivor pools is to save better teams for later in the season when picking games becomes increasingly more difficult and to avoid following the masses with the week’s likely most popular pick in the event of a massive upset. There is no more prototypical contrarian play this week than the Lions over the Seahawks. The Lions would have upset the Vikings on the road if not for questionable conservative play-calling in the fourth quarter last week. As it is, Detroit’s two losses have come by a combined seven points, but it should get right against a Seahawks defense that has allowed 175+ rushing yards in back-to-back games. The Lions have also been a cover machine this season, going 3-0 ATS, which has us feeling better about their chances to win outright as nearly a touchdown favorite. So if you want to wait to use Green Bay or Philadelphia until later in the season, Detroit makes the most sense to pick this week.
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.