NFL Survivor Pool Advice for Week 7: Picks & Predictions (2022)
The good news for survivor pool contestants is that last week’s biggest favorites, the Los Angeles Rams (-500), took advantage of the Carolina Panthers’ mid-week coaching change and won outright 24-10. The bad news is that each of the next four biggest favorites (Tampa Bay Buccaneers -375, Green Bay Packers -355, Baltimore Ravens -230, San Francisco 49ers -230) all lost.
Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers losing as big favorites to the Steelers and Jets is the most surprising, given that this was the first time in 32 weeks that both Canton-bound quarterbacks lost as favorites of at least a touchdown in the same week (per ESPN Stats & Info).
Are we in for another week of massive upsets, or will most of the favorites exert their dominance?
Like last week, my selections for this week will be broken down into the following categories: safest picks, riskier plays that will be popular, and contrarian plays to beat a large pool. Even though survivor pool rules say you cannot pick the same team twice, I will outline multiple scenarios if bettors wish to navigate their own path.
Here is a list of odds for all the favorites to win their matchups in Week 7 (odds courtesy of FanDuel).
Safest Picks
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-520), New England Patriots (-375)
Many held their noses last week and picked the Rams over the Panthers despite Los Angeles’ struggles to that point. That same advice needs to be heeded this week with Tampa Bay, no matter how poorly the Buccaneers have played to this point. The three wins (3-3 record) are Tom Brady’s fewest through six games in his career, and his eight touchdown passes are tied for his fewest in that span since 2004. However, while the Buccaneers have been held to 21 or fewer points in five of six games this season, they are not in jeopardy of losing to a Carolina team that has been a trainwreck for quite some time now, dropping 12 of its last 13.
Bill Belichick is doing amazing things with this Patriots roster. In the preseason, almost every report from New England was that his team was not adapting well to the new playbook and offensive concepts. You wouldn’t know it now, especially with how rookie Bailey Zappe has played in relief of the injured Mac Jones. Zappe is one of four quarterbacks this season with 2+ starts and zero losses. He also became the first rookie with a win and a passer rating of 100 or better in each of his first two starts since Sonny Jurgenson in 1957. Thus, no matter if Zappe or Jones is under center this week, we trust the Patriots at home against the Bears on Monday Night Football.
Riskier Plays That Will Be Popular
Dallas Cowboys (-330), Miami Dolphins (-320), Baltimore Ravens (-280)
We are lumping the Cowboys and Dolphins under the same narrative as to why they are risky picks, given that they each have starting quarterbacks that have missed multiple weeks, potentially coming back from injury this week. It is anyone’s guess how Dak Prescott will look after a thumb injury or if Tua Tagovailoa will play more tentatively after a gruesome head/neck injury. In Dallas’ case, they play a Detroit team coming off a bye (always a risky proposition), while Miami gets a Pittsburgh team riding high off its upset of Tampa Bay. I would stay far away from either of these teams but lean toward using Dallas if forced to decide between the two.
The Ravens are 3-3 (their worst start since 2017) but could easily be 6-0 had they not blown double-digit leads in all three losses. Baltimore is the first team to go .500 or worse through six games, with a double-digit lead in each. Lamar Jackson has a 3-4 TD-INT ratio in his last three games and will not have the safety valve of J.K. Dobbins in the backfield after an injury he suffered last week against the Giants. Until Baltimore shows it can finish games consistently, I would not want the headaches that come with the ups and downs of each of its games every week.
Contrarian Play to Beat a Large Pool
Las Vegas Raiders (-300)
The four AFC West teams do not have the gaudy records from top to bottom that most in the NFC East do, but not many would argue that the former is the tougher division. With six games (two each against the Chiefs, Broncos, and Chargers) that are entirely off the table from a survivor pool perspective, a game against a Houston Texans team that seemingly cannot beat anyone but Jacksonville over the last three seasons makes for an excellent contrarian play.
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.