NFL Survivor Pool Advice for Week 9: Odds, Picks & Predictions (2026)
For a while in Week 8 it looked like the top Moneyline favorite on the board (Bengals) were going to lose outright for the fourth straight week. But they instead pull out an overtime victory over the Titans after quarterback Joe Burrow turned in an historic performance. Thus, the biggest upset of the week came from the fourth-biggest underdog (Cardinals).
My NFL survivor pool advice got through two of our safest picks (Bengals and Jaguars), all three risky plays (Patriots, Packers, and Steelers), and our contrarian play (Commanders).
Read on for our best NFL survivor pool advice for Week 9.
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NFL Survivor Pool Advice for Week 9: Picks & Predictions (2026)
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Here are the odds for the top 10 favorites to win their Week 9 matchups.
Week 9 NFL Moneyline Odds
| TEAM | ODDS |
| Seattle Seahawks | -700 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | -520 |
| San Francisco 49ers | -500 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | -410 |
| Detroit Lions | -375 |
| Dallas Cowboys | -250 |
| Chicago Bears | -238 |
| Los Angeles Rams | -230 |
| Houston Texans | -218 |
| New England Patriots | -148 |
Safest Picks
Kansas City Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes blew a double-digit fourth quarter lead last week for just the third time in his career. But even after squandering an 11-point lead, his Chiefs still had a 76% win probability (per Next Gen Stats) when trailing by four by having a first-and-goal situation from the Broncos four-yard line late.
No matter how heartbreaking of a loss the Chiefs are coming off of, they're not in danger of losing at home to a Jets team that just allowed 38 points to the Raiders (their season-high). New York also scored touchdowns on just three of its six red zone possessions. It won't have an answer for Mahomes if Kirk Cousins was able to throw for 247 yards while completing passes to just four different receivers.
San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers face a Raiders squad that has scored 221 points this season, their most through eight games since 2002. But San Francisco is rested off a bye and has not lost off a bye week since 2022 (a five-game winning streak).
This is a great time to use San Francisco if you haven't already in survivor pools. Three of its next four games are against teams with a winning record (Vikings, Seahawks, and Giants), while the first opponent after that stretch is the preseason Super Bowl favorites (Rams). At the rate that San Francisco seems to lose key players to injuries each year, I wouldn't want to wait to see what its roster looks like after that brutal four-game stretch.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville made Indianapolis look exactly like a team amid a midseason firesale, beating the Colts by 35 points and out-gaining them by 123 yards. Now they potentially get a huge reprieve scheduling-wise on a short week against a Ravens team that could potentially be starting emergency quarterback Joe Fagnano for the first time.
If it is indeed Fagnano under center, the Jaguars are a fine survivor pick even though they play the Titans twice in the following three weeks.
Risky Popular Plays
Seattle Seahawks
Seattle is off a short week and facing a Cardinals team that is arguably the most perplexing team in the league. Arizona’s three wins have all come as huge upsets, with the first two being when it had moneyline odds of +350 or longer.
Arizona could now be rejuvenated after making a quarterback switch from Jacoby Brissett to Gardner Minshew. Minshew finished the game with a 3-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio, a 68.6 QBR, and 137.3 rating. If the Cardinals could end Dallas’ 69-game home winning streak when leading by 14-plus points in the fourth quarter, I want no part of fading them, even if they’re playing the reigning Super Bowl champions.
Detroit Lions
It will be fair to wonder what Detroit will have left in the tank after two hard fought home victories by a combined seven points over two divisional rivals (Packers and Vikings). This is an impossible scheduling spot for the Lions, who travel to Germany the week after to face New England.
The Patriots struggled with the Miami heat and humidity last week while being held to just three points in the first half. And it will be interesting to see if Jared Goff's rhythm and timing is off after being blitzed on 26 of his 29 dropbacks, the highest blitz rate any quarterback has faced since at least 2008.
Detroit has a much more appealing survivor spot in a Week 14 home game against Tennessee if you're thinking about when to use the Lions.
Contrarian Play to Beat a Large Pool
New Orleans Saints
Survivor pool strategy picks are meant to be contrarian, not only to avoid the popular plays others use each week, but to save the more elite teams for later in the season when the pickings are much slimmer. Thus, backing a 2-5 New Orleans team playing a 5-3 Cleveland squad is certainly an outside-the-box play.
Cleveland used a stout run defense to win four of its first six games while allowing just one rushing touchdown in that span. But the Browns have now allowed six rushing touchdowns over the last two weeks, and just allowed Pittsburgh to run for a season-high 200 yards (Jaylen Warren tied his career-high with 143 on the ground).
New Orleans is rested off a bye week and will likely use that added rest to deploy a bruising running game to attack Cleveland's weakness.
The Browns have won just four of their last five games since 2024 when at a rest disadvantage, while New Orleans has won just 37.9% of its games since 2023, but 57.1% of them as home favorites (eight of 14).
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.