NFL Survivor Pool Advice: Odds, Picks & Predictions (Week 2)
If one were to be told that nine of the top 10 moneyline favorites were all to win their Week 1 matchups, survivor pool contestants would have likely breathed a huge sigh of relief, figuring they would be safe in navigating what is historically one of the trickiest survivor pool weeks of the season. However, the one team that lost was the Cincinnati Bengals, the top favorite on the board at -430 moneyline odds. Those that avoided picking Cincinnati based on the loss of Joe Mixon, Tee Higgins being inactive, and the Ja’Marr Chase drama that led right up to kickoff gained a huge leg up over the competition.
That is not to say that other top favorites did not make things interesting, as the other top two favorites, the Seattle Seahawks and Buffalo Bills, both overcame halftime deficits (the Bills were down two touchdowns in the first half) to secure Week 1 victories at home.
Like last week, my selections for this week will be broken down into the following categories: safest picks, riskier plays that will be popular, and contrarian plays to beat a large pool. Even though survivor pool rules say you cannot pick the same team twice, I will outline multiple scenarios if bettors wish to navigate their own path.
- NFL Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
- NFL Same Game Parlay Builder
- Touchdown Scorer Picks: Anytime | First
- More NFL Betting Advice
NFL Survivor Pool Advice: Week 2
Here is a list of odds for all the favorites to win their matchups in Week 2 (odds courtesy of FanDuel).
| TEAM | ODDS |
| Baltimore Ravens | -430 |
| Detroit Lions | -310 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | -300 |
| Dallas Cowboys | -295 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | -295 |
| Houston Texans | -270 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | -260 |
| San Francisco 49ers | -260 |
| New York Jets | -194 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | -186 |
| Seattle Seahawks | -176 |
| Indianapolis Colts | -176 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | -158 |
| Washington Commanders | -146 |
| Miami Dolphins | -120 |
| Arizona Cardinals | -112 |
Safest NFL Survivor Pool Picks
Baltimore Ravens (-430), Dallas Cowboys (-295), Houston Texans (-270)
The Ravens gave the two-time defending champion Chiefs all they could handle at Arrowhead to kick off the season. They now benefit from extra rest having played last Thursday night, and face a Raiders squad that allowed 176 rushing yards to the Chargers in Week 1. For context, that was L.A.’s highest rushing total since Week 1 of last year, and it came in Jim Harbaugh’s head coaching debut nonetheless. A poor run defense does not bode well for Las Vegas’s chances of beating Baltimore, led by the two-headed monster of Lamar Jackson (122 rushing yards in Week 1) and Derrick Henry (the NFL’s leading rusher since 2018). To make matters worse, the Raiders committed two turnovers and scored three points on six second-half possessions against the Chargers, and they will certainly need more offense in this road matchup against the Ravens.
So much for the offseason distractions the Cowboys faced with Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb’s contract situations. Both players got paid, then balled out in a 33-17 road win over the Browns. Dallas has now won its last two season openers by a combined 73-17, and its defense last week totaled six sacks, two interceptions, and allowed 230 total yards. The win snapped Cleveland’s six-game home streak, and while the Saints had their largest margin of victory (37 points) since 2018 in a Week 1 win over the Panthers, Carolina has long been a poor road team (it is amid its longest road losing streak since 2010-11) and looks destined to pick first overall in next year’s NFL Draft once again.
Houston’s Week 1 road win at Indianapolis was its third straight in that head-to-head matchup for the first time in franchise history. Quarterback C.J. Stroud has now thrown two or more touchdown passes and zero interceptions in eight of his 18 career starts (including the playoffs), and the Texans have won nine straight road games against divisional opponents overall. While the Bears do not play in the AFC South, they did rely soleon on their defense to eke out a Week 1 win. Chicago’s defense and special teams had three sacks, three takeaways, an interception returned for a touchdown, and a blocked punt for a touchdown, and its 148 yards were the fewest by any team in a win since 2020. Chicago will need a lot more offense to keep up with Houston, and while Caleb Williams became the first quarterback selected No. 1 overall to win his first career start since 2002 (David Carr), winning on the road against a legit Super Bowl contender is a different story.
Riskier NFL Survivor Pool Picks That Will Be Popular
Detroit Lions (-310), Philadelphia Eagles (-300), Los Angeles Chargers (-295)
Detroit narrowly escaped against Los Angeles for the second consecutive team (the Lions beat the Rams by one point in last year’s playoffs), and now host Tampa Bay who won its fourth straight season opener (longest streak in franchise history). I am avoiding this matchup because Baker Mayfield is coming off a season where he set career-highs in completion percentage, passing yards, and passing touchdowns, and just turned in his fifth career game with at least four touchdown passes.
The Eagles on paper should take care of a Falcons team at home that just lost to the Steelers, who won a regular season game without scoring a touchdown for the first time since 2008. But given that Philadelphia plays in a division with the Giants and Commanders, who just yet do not appear any bit of improved from a season ago, it would be wiser to wait to use the Eagles in survivor pools when they are not coming back from playing their first game in Brazil.
Chargers head coach Jim Harbaugh improved to 5-0 in season openers in his NFL coaching career (he went 4-0 with the 49ers), and are road favorites against a Panthers team that is coming off their fourth loss of 37-plus points in franchise history. However, I do not fully trust a West Coast team playing in the 1:00 p.m. ET time slot, and there are plenty more opportunities to fade Carolina when it is the road team instead of the home team.
Contrarian NFL Survivor Pool Picks to Beat a Large Pool
Washington Commanders (-146)
There are likely plenty of survivor pools out there that have thousands of participants left after Week 1, and it would be smart to save the league’s best teams for later in the season. There may not be a better time to use Washington in survivor pools than this week at home against a Giants squad that failed to score a touchdown in Week 1 for the fifth time since the start of last season. Yes, Washington is amid its longest losing streak (nine games) since 2013-14, and the Commanders are the first team to allow 27 or more points in nine consecutive games since the Chargers in 2020. However, New York is not built to take advantage of Washington’s defensive deficiencies, and the Commanders have reason for optimism after rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels ran for 88 yards and two touchdowns in his debut.
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.