NFL Survivor Pool Advice, Picks & Predictions (Week 4)

Like last week, my selections for this week will be broken down into the following categories: safest picks, riskier plays that will be popular, and contrarian plays to beat a large pool. Even though survivor pool rules say you cannot pick the same team twice, I will outline multiple scenarios if bettors wish to navigate their own path. Here is our NFL Survivor Pool advice for Week 4, including our top picks and predictions as well as teams to consider fading.

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NFL Survivor Pool Advice: Week 4

If there were not enough upsets through the first two weeks of the NFL season, Week 3 had plenty of other grenades thrown at survivor pool contestants, with eight underdogs winning outright. It was not just that seven underdogs won, but they were involved in several of the biggest upsets of the week, as all of the top four favorites of the week (Bengals, 49ers, Buccaneers, and Browns) all lost. Interestingly enough, last week’s risky picks went 2-1 in their respective games, while the Raiders became our first contrarian pick to lose this season.

Safest NFL Survivor Pool Picks

San Francisco 49ers, Kansas City Chiefs, New York Jets

San Francisco is coming off a bad loss to the Rams, especially since it was L.A.’s first win when trailing by 14-plus points since 2012. The Rams scored the final 13 points of the game, and the 49ers fell to 0-3 without Deebo Samuel since the start of last season. San Francisco is now in familiar territory starting 1-2 twice in the last three seasons, but it always ends up turning this around, and even if it is without Samuel in this matchup, it is too talented for a Patriots team who just laid an egg with 139 total yards and a 2.9 yards per play average against the Jets. New England is on extended rest having last played Thursday night, but this does not have the feel of the gargantuan upsets we have seen to this point.

Normally I would advise saving a team as good as the Chiefs for later use, but given how chaotic survivor pools have been thus far, the name of the game is “survive and advance.” This would be a game to avoid if Justin Herbert plays after leaving last week’s game with an ankle injury. However, if he is inactive, I do not trust Taylor Heinicke and his 13-15-1 career record as a starter to match scores with Mahomes and the Chiefs. In addition, Mahomes is 30-5 in his career against AFC West opponents, so it would take something extra special from the Chargers to pull the upset. 

If you are alive in survivor pools entering Week 4, you likely do not have the Jets available, as they were one of the lone top favorites to take care of business last weekend. If you have not used them, this is a great opportunity as the schedule works massively in their favor. New York is off extended rest having last played Thursday, is playing its second consecutive home game, and is facing a Broncos squad playing its third road game in the first four weeks, and is making a second consecutive trip across the country after playing at Tampa Bay last week. Denver scored more touchdowns in the first quarter (two) last week than in the first two games combined, but it was also just its first win in September under Sean Payton (1-5), and until the Broncos show more offensive consistency, I will continue to fade them in the right spots in survivor pools.

Riskier NFL Survivor Pool Picks That Will Be Popular

Cincinnati Bengals, Arizona Cardinals

Cincinnati is in a tricky spot in a “revenge game” of sorts for Andy Dalton as the Panthers starting quarterback. For those who said no quarterback could thrive in Carolina’s offensive system after watching Bryce Young struggle, Dalton laughed in the face of those thoughts, as he finished last Sunday as the only quarterback in the league to throw for 300 or more yards and at least three touchdowns in a game this season. Throw in the fact that the Bengals are off a short week and are now on the road in this game, and this is a complete stayaway. 

Arizona fell to 0-9 in games following a win since the start of the 2022 season with last week’s 20-13 loss to the Lions. A Cardinals offense that came into Week 3 red-hot scored just three total points on their final seven drives, and Arizona is now just 4-20 SU in its last 24 home games. Washington is at a scheduling disadvantage having played on Monday night, but Jayden Daniels has been impressive thus far, and I do not trust the Cardinals amid their home struggles.

Contrarian NFL Survivor Pool Picks to Beat a Large Pool

Tennessee Titans

This is a complete hold your nose pick, as the Titans are one of three remaining winless NFL teams. But Tennessee is favored on the road at Miami for a reason, as Dolphins backup quarterback Skylar Thompson is questionable after suffering a rib injury last week, while third-string Tyler Huntley was signed less than two weeks ago. Even though the Dolphins still have Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle lined up out wide, their quarterback issues are a big reason they finished 1-of-12 on third downs last week, and did not register 100 total yards against the Seahawks until midway through the third quarter. Titans quarterback Will Levis has multiple turnovers in each game this season, including a couple that have directly resulted in points for the other team. But if he takes better care of the football this week, Tennessee should have enough offensively to win a defensive slugfest.

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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.