NFL Survivor Pool Advice: Week 10 (2021)

If we keep getting weeks as we had in Week 9, most survivor pool contests around the country will be over by Thanksgiving. For the second consecutive week, at least seven moneyline underdogs won outright. However, this past week was the most chaotic from a survivor pool perspective, as three of the four biggest moneyline favorites lost outright. There was no bigger upset than Buffalo’s loss to Jacksonville, as the Bills became the biggest moneyline favorite (-1100) to lose this season. That loss was followed by Dallas’ loss as -450 favorites and the Rams’ loss as -360 favorites. The saving grace was that two of our “risky picks” from last week’s column ended up losing, while our “contrarian play” of the Dolphins (-290) cashed for moneyline bettors and helped survivor pool contestants advance.

Like last week, my selections for this week will be broken down into the following categories: safest picks, riskier plays that will be popular, and contrarian plays to beat a large pool. Even though survivor pool rules say you cannot pick the same team twice, I will outline multiple scenarios if bettors wish to navigate their own path.

Here is a list of odds for all the favorites to win their matchups in Week 10 (odds courtesy of FanDuel).

Safest Picks

Buffalo Bills (-700), Indianapolis Colts (-480), Dallas Cowboys (-430), Pittsburgh Steelers (-430)

For the second consecutive week, the Buffalo Bills are the biggest moneyline favorites of any team in the league. Fool me twice? Those that were lucky enough to “save” the Bills for this week will not be disappointed, as head coach Sean McDermott will have his team’s full attention against a division rival. The Jets have secured two of the season’s biggest upsets with home wins over the Titans and Bengals. New York also has three extra days to prepare, having last played on Thursday night. However, they were torched for 45 points and 532 total yards in that road loss to the Colts. Thus, Josh Allen and the Bills will be licking their chops to face the Jets secondary, especially after their six-point output against Jacksonville was their worst in two seasons.

The Indianapolis Colts face a Jacksonville Jaguars team that is fresh off the biggest upset of the season in a 9-6 win as 14.5 point underdogs against the Bills. While the Jaguars are 2-0 against the AFC East this season, they are 0-6 against everyone else. They face a Colts team off three extra days rest that just turned in their most complete offensive performance of the season. Jacksonville is 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 meetings with Indianapolis, but the Colts have scored 30 or more points in four consecutive weeks, and they are playing too well at the moment to be upset at home.

The Dallas Cowboys had a six-game winning streak in their last game against the Broncos and now face an Atlanta Falcons team coming off a momentum-building win against the Saints. However, the Cowboys land in our “safest picks” section instead of the “riskier plays” since Atlanta’s offense does not pose the same problems as Denver’s. The Broncos used a punishing running game to run for 190 yards and 4.6 yards per carry last week. They held the ball for more than 41 minutes, so Dallas’ high-powered offense never had a chance to get going. The Falcons are not built to dominate the line of scrimmage like Denver did, and the Cowboys will be itching to jump on Atlanta early after a disappointing loss.

The Pittsburgh Steelers are attempting to continue the trend of the winners of Monday Night Football games going undefeated in their games the following week. Teams that have won on Monday night are a combined 8-0 the next week, dispelling the notion that they are at a disadvantage after having one less day to prepare. In Pittsburgh’s case, they are at a considerable scheduling disadvantage facing a Detroit team off a bye. However, the Lions are the only remaining winless team in the league for a reason, and they looked non-competitive in a 44-6 loss at home to the Eagles in their last game.

Riskier Plays That Will Be Popular

Arizona Cardinals (-480), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-420), Baltimore Ravens (-350)

The Arizona Cardinals beat the 49ers on the road last week without their two best offensive players, Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins. However, one should not expect them not to miss a beat in the future if either player is ruled out or severely hampered by their injuries. Panthers quarterback Sam Darnold has done nothing of late to suggest he can lead his team to a road victory over an 8-1 football team, but there are safer plays this week.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers head to Washington for the second straight year, after defeating the Football Team 31-23 in the Wild Card round of last year’s playoffs. Washington quarterback Taylor Heinicke played well in an emergency start that day, and he now has much more starting experience under his belt. Washington is a league-worst 1-7 ATS this season, but they have to cover a spread or spring an upset at some point.

The Baltimore Ravens continue to play with fire as they came back from yet another double-digit deficit in last week’s win against the Vikings. However, this year’s defense is arguably head coach John Harbaugh’s worst in his tenure as Ravens head coach. With Baltimore playing on the road on a short week against a team that won ten games last year, that is not the spot I would want to risk my survivor pool life on.

Contrarian Play To Beat a Large Pool

Denver Broncos (-156)

The Denver Broncos are fresh off one of the biggest upsets of the season from a point spread standpoint, as they beat the Cowboys 30-16 as ten-point underdogs. The Broncos look to use the formula of a punishing running game to expose an Eagles defense that ranks 19th in the league against the run, allowing 119.7 yards per game. Of course, there is the concern of a letdown game after such a big road win last week, but the Broncos are 4-0 SU against teams under .500 this season, and trust they will take care of business once again.

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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.