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NFL Survivor Pool Advice: Week 10

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Though favorites went just 9-5 SU in Week 9, the good news for survivor pool contestants is that each of the five biggest favorites (Bills, 49ers, Cowboys, Seahawks, Eagles) according to the money line won last week. The five losses from favorites all came from teams whose money line was -225 or less. One such team, the Jets, was likely a popular pick even though they came into the game with one win. Nevertheless, there were sure to be some that thought the Dolphins were headed for an 0-16 season, only to get burned by them last week.

Since we are entering Week 10, there aren’t too many contestants left in pools needing advice on Contrarian Plays to Beat Large Pools. At this point in the season, the pickings of good teams are somewhat slim. Therefore, this week’s column will outline the following categories: Safest Picks, Riskier Plays That Will Be Popular, and the Picks to Stay Far Away From. Even though survivor pool rules say you cannot pick the same team twice, I will outline multiple scenarios in case bettors wish to navigate their own path or have already used the teams I will suggest.

Here is a list of odds for all the favorites to win their matchups in Week 10 (odds courtesy of FanDuel).

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TEAM ODDS
New Orleans Saints -600
Baltimore Ravens -430
Indianapolis Colts -420
San Francisco 49ers -290
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -220
Green Bay Packers -215
Kansas City Chiefs -186
Los Angeles Rams -178
Dallas Cowboys -150
Cleveland Browns -144
Chicago Bears -142
New York Giants -138
Los Angeles Chargers -112

 

Safest Picks

New Orleans Saints (-600), Baltimore Ravens (-420), Indianapolis Colts (-420)

The New Orleans Saints prepare for battle with their division rival Atlanta Falcons. Both teams come into this game rested off a bye. Early signs are pointing to Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan playing this week after he missed the last game with an ankle injury. Ryan or no Ryan, it won’t help Atlanta’s 24th-ranked defense slow down the explosive New Orleans’ offense. Drew Brees looked just fine in his first game back from a thumb injury, as he threw for 373 yards and three touchdowns against Arizona. The Saints are riding a six-game winning streak, and are not about to let the doormat of their division ruin that streak this week.

We are left with just one undefeated team in the league, and that was because the Ravens throttled the Patriots 37-20 on Sunday night. Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson strengthened his case for MVP by accounting for 224 total yards and three touchdowns against the NFL’s best defense. The Ravens play at Cincinnati, where Bengals quarterback Ryan Finley is making his first NFL start. He replaces an ineffective Andy Dalton, who is largely responsible for the team’s 0-8 record. If you didn’t use the Ravens in survivor pools in either of the first two weeks, now is certainly the time.

The Indianapolis Colts welcome the suddenly resurgent (OK, lets not get ahead of ourselves) Miami Dolphins to town. Indianapolis had a great chance to win in Pittsburgh even after quarterback Jacoby Brissett left in the first half with a knee injury. Veteran quarterback Brian Hoyer filled in well for the injured Brissett, throwing for 168 yards and three touchdowns. The Colts had a chance to take the lead with a minute left in the fourth quarter, but kicker Adam Vinatieri’s 43-yard attempt was not close. Do not overthink this game if you have the Colts available, simply because Hoyer will start or the Dolphins won last week. The Colts will not squander this opportunity to remain in the hunt for the AFC South by losing to the 1-7 Dolphins at home.

Riskier Plays That Will Be Popular

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-220), Green Bay Packers (-215), Los Angeles Rams (-178)

If you told the Buccaneers they would score 34 points at Seattle, they probably would’ve told you it would be good enough to win. However, the Bucs’ defense disappointed in a 40-34 overtime loss at Seattle. The Buccaneers have allowed 40, 27, 37, 31, 40, and 32 points in their last six games. They are currently on a four-game losing streak and now face the Arizona Cardinals who are more rested. Until the Buccaneers show they can play defense, stay far away from them in survivor pools.

The Green Bay Packers’ offense was rolling before they were humbled in a 26-11 loss to the Chargers. They welcome a Carolina Panthers team who has won five out of their last six games to Lambeau Field. Outside of a humbling loss to San Francisco, Kyle Allen is a perfect 5-0 SU and ATS. Given the way Christian McCaffrey is running the football these days, I wouldn’t want any part in opposing the Panthers.

The Los Angeles Rams are off a bye but face the Pittsburgh Steelers who are on a three-game winning streak. Rams quarterback Jared Goff is a different play at home versus on the road. I have no confidence that Goff will play well enough in Pittsburgh to beat a suddenly-hot Steelers team.

Picks to Stay Far Away From

San Francisco 49ers (-290), Kansas City Chiefs (-186), Dallas Cowboys (-150), Cleveland Browns (-144), Chicago Bears (-142), New York Giants (-138), Los Angeles Chargers (-112)

  • San Francisco 49ers: Divisional game against red-hot MVP candidate Russell Wilson. No thanks.
  • Kansas City Chiefs: I’d feel a lot better about this game if Patrick Mahomes was starting. Not confident in Matt Moore on the road.
  • Dallas Cowboys: Absolutely no reason to oppose one of the best teams in the NFC (Vikings).
  • Cleveland Browns: A 2-6 team is a two-point favorite over a 6-2 Bills team? Smells like Vegas knows something here, but you cannot convince me that this is a smart play for survivor pool purposes.
  • Chicago Bears: Have you seen Mitchell Trubisky play quarterback lately?
  • New York Giants: As bad as the Jets have looked, stranger things have happened. Just look at the Jets beating the Cowboys two weeks ago.
  • Los Angeles Chargers: Traveling on a short week against a division rival. Doesn’t exactly have me brimming with confidence.

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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.