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NFL Survivor Pool Advice: Week 11 (2019)

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As far as survivor pools go, Week 10 in the NFL can best be summed up as “Sunday Bloody Sunday.” If you are still alive in your survivor pools after last week, in the words of Garth, “We’re not worthy!” Favorites went just 5-8 SU last week, with three of the four biggest favorites (Saints -600, Colts -420, 49ers -290) all losing outright. The once laughable Dolphins and Falcons pulled off mammoth upsets, leaving survivor contestants puzzled and oddsmakers rejoicing. Regardless, we forge on and continue to advise those contestants that still have something to play for. Even if you are one of many who are knocked out of your pools, feel free to follow this advice from a betting perspective. 

Week 11 looks a bit tough at first glance, as seven of the 14 matchups pit divisional opponents against each other. If the Falcons-Saints matchup last week taught us anything, divisional games can always be tricky and unpredictable.

This week’s column will outline the following categories: Safest Picks, Riskier Plays That Will Be Popular, and the Picks to Stay Far Away From. Even though survivor pool rules say you cannot pick the same team twice, I will outline multiple scenarios in case bettors wish to navigate their own path, or have already used the teams I will suggest.

Here is a list of odds for all the favorites to win their matchups in Week 11 (odds courtesy of FanDuel).

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TEAM ODDS
San Francisco 49ers -700
Oakland Raiders -490
Minnesota Vikings -420
Los Angeles Rams -290
Buffalo Bills -245
New Orleans Saints -245
Carolina Panthers -225
Baltimore Ravens -200
Dallas Cowboys -196
Kansas City Chiefs -190
New England Patriots -178
Indianapolis Colts -154
Cleveland Browns -138
Washington Redskins -112

 

Safest Picks

Oakland Raiders (-490), Minnesota Vikings (-420)

Earlier in the season, the Dolphins and Redskins were teams that survivor pool contestants identified as targets. Now, the most targeted team has to be the Bengals, who are currently the only winless squad left. The Oakland Raiders have a lot of things working for them in this game, besides the opponent they are playing. They are playing their third consecutive home game, are coming off a long week after having played Thursday night, and are in the midst of a two-game winning streak over good competition (Lions, Chargers). The Raiders are easily the safest play of the week this week and one likely not to have been used before.

The Minnesota Vikings come home for the first time in three weeks, where they are 4-0 on the season. They have won five of their last six games, including an impressive victory on national television over the Cowboys last week. The only thing working against them is that the Broncos are coming off a bye. However, they still trot out quarterback Brandon Allen under center. He will find life a lot harder on the road against Minnesota’s defense than he did at home against the Browns in his first NFL start. The Vikings should remain undefeated at home after this week.

Riskier Plays That Will Be Popular

San Francisco 49ers (-700), Los Angeles Rams (-290), Buffalo Bills (-245), Carolina Panthers (-225), Dallas Cowboys (-196)

It is odd to evaluate the team with the steepest odds of the week as a “risky play,” but that is exactly how the 49ers should be viewed this week. They will be emotionally spent after an exhausting and physical overtime loss to their rival Seattle. They will face another divisional opponent in the Cardinals on a short week. Just two weeks ago, the 49ers held off the Cardinals 28-25 in a tightly contested Thursday night game. The fact that San Francisco is a double-digit favorite is irrelevant. These are two teams that know each other well, and this could be a dogfight. If last week’s Falcons-Saints game taught us anything, double-digit favorites in divisional games are anything but a lock.

The Rams will be a popular pick this week, not so much because of anything spectacular they are doing, but because of the ineptitude of their opponent. The Chicago Bears won a sloppy game against the Lions last week who started a backup quarterback. This win snapped a four-game losing streak. Chicago, and in particular Mitchell Trubisky, has not played well for quite some time now. However, their defense is more than capable of taking it to this Rams’ offense, who themselves have struggled for three of the last four weeks. I would not be confident in taking the Rams against a lot of teams this week, and certainly not against the Bears.

The Buffalo Bills have cooled off of late, losing two of their last three. Or, in the words of the late Dennis Green, maybe this is “who we thought they were!” The Bills head to Miami to face a Dolphins team they struggled with at home four weeks ago. The Bills trailed entering the fourth quarter in that game, only to pull away late and win 31-21. The suddenly resurgent Dolphins are on a two-game winning streak, and I’d want no part of opposing them in the Florida heat and humidity. 

Carolina likely earned a lot of respect with a close loss to Green Bay at Lambeau. However, they head home to face a Falcons team that just dismantled the division-leading Saints on the road. It is smarter to take a wait-and-see approach on Atlanta, analyzing if they have truly “turned a corner” or if their win was more of an anomaly. If you are still willing to wait on good teams for survivor purposes, the Panthers face the Redskins at home in two weeks.

The Cowboys will be a popular play this week if they get to face Jeff Driskel and the Lions instead of Matthew Stafford. Regardless, the Cowboys are not doing much to inspire confidence lately. They have lost two of their last three road games, including one against the Jets. While Driskel’s statistics were not eye-popping, he did more than enough to keep them in the game against the Bears. Regardless of who is quarterbacking the Lions this week, they are more than capable of pulling off an upset over the Cowboys.

Picks to Stay Far Away From

New Orleans Saints (-245), Baltimore Ravens (-200), Kansas City Chiefs (-190), New England Patriots (-178), Indianapolis Colts (-154), Cleveland Browns (-138), Washington Redskins (-112)

  • New Orleans Saints: They laid an egg last week and now face another division rival on the road. Their first game against the Buccaneers at home was anything but an easy win.
  • Baltimore Ravens: As well as Lamar Jackson and the Ravens are playing, do you really want to oppose Deshaun Watson and the Texans coming off a bye?
  • Kansas City Chiefs: Patrick Mahomes looked great last week, but this is still a 6-4 football team. They are playing the division rival Chargers in Mexico. No thanks!
  • New England Patriots: The last time we saw New England, they lost a smashmouth type of game against the Ravens. The Eagles have the same kind of personnel to play that way in this one.
  • Indianapolis Colts: They just lost to the Dolphins, and there is still uncertainty around who will play quarterback. Plus, Nick Foles returns for the Jaguars. This pick doesn’t exactly breed confidence.
  • Cleveland Browns: Don’t get sucked back into the Browns’ hype just because they came back to beat the Bills late last week. They are still playing a Steelers team who is currently on a four-game winning streak.
  • Washington Redskins: Well, I guess someone had to be favored in a game between the Redskins and Jets. Given that rookie quarterback Dwayne Haskins doesn’t have a win, or even a touchdown pass in three career games, I’ll be more than happy to look elsewhere this week.

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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.