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NFL Survivor Pool Advice: Week 12

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In a week where favorites went 12-2 SU and 9-4-1 ATS, one would think that contestants still alive in survivor pools would be safe everywhere. However, that does not mean Week 11 was devoid of drama. Those who selected the Vikings and 49ers last week likely have a few extra gray hairs on their head. Minnesota became the first team in the last 100 games to win a contest they trailed by 20 or more points at halftime. San Francisco also overcame a big deficit, falling behind 16-0 to Arizona only to win 36-26. The only two favorites to lose were the Panthers (-225) and Redskins (-112).

A look ahead to Week 12 betting lines features just one team (Browns) as double-digit favorites. However, double-digit favorites are anything but a lock these days. Three teams (Raiders, Vikings, 49ers) were favored by double-digits last week. While all three won SU, they went 0-3 ATS.

Week 11 was just the second week of the season that books across the country reported losses on NFL wagering. You know that oddsmakers will adjust this week and avoid a second losing week in a row. Favorites will simply not go 12-2 again like they did last week, so do your research and avoid the “landmines” as best you can!

This week’s column will outline the following categories: Safest Picks, Riskier Plays That Will Be Popular, and the Picks to Stay Far Away From. Even though survivor pool rules say you cannot pick the same team twice, I will outline multiple scenarios in case bettors wish to navigate their own path, or have already used the teams I will suggest.

Here is a list of odds for all the favorites to win their matchups in Week 12 (odds courtesy of FanDuel).

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TEAM ODDS
Cleveland Browns -460
New Orleans Saints -430
Chicago Bears -320
Pittsburgh Steelers -270
New England Patriots -250
Buffalo Bills -235
Atlanta Falcons -205
Houston Texans -194
Oakland Raiders -170
Detroit Lions -162
Tennessee Titans -154
San Francisco 49ers -144
Baltimore Ravens -132
Philadelphia Eagles -130

 

Safest Picks

Cleveland Browns (-460)
I am all-in on the Cleveland Browns this week in survivor pools. It is unlikely contestants have used them yet given their poor start to the season. The Browns seem to have righted the ship with two good home wins over the Bills and Steelers. Many people were quick to write off the Browns after a four-game losing streak, but the fact is just one of those losses (at Denver) could really be considered a “bad loss.” Cleveland has a huge scheduling advantage this week in that they are playing their third consecutive home game. They are also on longer rest than normal given they played on Thursday night last week.

Their opponent, the Dolphins, were cooled off by the Bills after a two-game winning streak. Miami has the 31st-ranked rush defense and the 29th-ranked total defense in the league. The Browns will look to expose this weak rush defense with Nick Chubb. Chubb has quietly had a solid two games during their winning streak, averaging 104 YPG.

The one thing to worry about with the Browns this week is how they will respond after the ugly melee at the end of last week’s game against the Steelers. Myles Garrett and Larry Ogunjobi have been suspended for their roles in the altercation. If that unfortunate incident is still weighing on the players’ minds, it can negatively affect their play. However, I have confidence the Browns will be able to put this event behind them and keep playing solid football. I also have confidence the Dolphins do not have what it takes to beat a surging Browns team on the road.

Riskier Plays That Will Be Popular

New Orleans Saints (-430), Chicago Bears (-320), Pittsburgh Steelers (-270), Buffalo Bills (-235), Atlanta Falcons (-205), Detroit Lions (-162)

New Orleans Saints
The Saints rebounded in a big way from their Week 10 loss to the Falcons with a 34-17 win over Tampa Bay. They head home to face their third divisional opponent in a row. The Saints will be a popular play given how bad Kyle Allen and the Panthers looked against Atlanta last week. However, this is the same Atlanta team that just made the Saints look bad. The Panthers historically have played close games in New Orleans. I will throw out Week 17 last year when the Saints rested starters. Aside from that, their last four trips to New Orleans have been decided by an average of 3.75 PPG. This is the second biggest spread on the board, but I would argue there are still better spots to target.

Chicago Bears
The Bears are in complete disarray, and now we wait on the injury news to quarterback Mitchell Trubisky. No matter if Trubisky or Chase Daniel starts, you cannot trust either to lead this offense. They get a Giants’ defense that has been generous to opposing offenses, but New York is also coming off a bye. If Saquon Barkley and Evan Engram are healthy, the Giants can be dangerous in this one.

Pittsburgh Steelers
Although the Steelers face a winless Bengals team, they cannot be picked with the utmost confidence. Mason Rudolph has thrown five touchdowns and six interceptions in his last four games. The Steelers will also be without the anchor of their offensive line, as center Maurkice Pouncey was suspended three games. Throw the records out in what should be a tightly-contested divisional game.

Buffalo Bills
The Bills get one more team with a losing record, the Broncos, before they embark on the toughest part of their schedule. Denver showed it is capable of beating good teams on the road, as they had Minnesota dead to rights before letting a big lead slip away. This game has by far the lowest over/under on the board. In a game where points could be at a premium, I wouldn’t have the most confidence in the Bills winning comfortably.

Atlanta Falcons
Are the Falcons finally reverting back to the team that won the NFC three years ago? Atlanta has not allowed a touchdown to two straight divisional opponents. They get their chance at a third when they welcome the Buccaneers to town. While many will be sold that the worst of the Falcons’ problems are behind them, it is still risky to place your survivor pool hopes on a 3-7 team against a divisional opponent.

Detroit Lions
The Lions will be a popular play even with Jeff Driskel under center. There is absolutely no faith in Washington these days, especially after getting walloped at home by the Jets. Detroit’s defense allows 27.2 PPG, which ranks 27th in the league. Can Washington quarterback Dwayne Haskins take advantage? If you are taking the Lions this week, be aware of how bad their defense has been of late.

Picks to Stay Far Away From

New England Patriots (-250), Houston Texans (-194), Oakland Raiders (-170), Tennessee Titans (-154), San Francisco 49ers (-144), Baltimore Ravens (-132)

  • New England Patriots: This may be the ugliest 9-1 football team in recent memory. The Patriots’ defense is arguably one of the best Bill Belichick has ever had. However, there are clearly problems with the offense, and their only loss was against the only team they have played with a winning record. Dak Prescott is playing lights out, and the Cowboys are more than capable of going to Foxborough and springing an upset.
  • Houston Texans: It helps that Colts running back Marlon Mack will miss this game with an injured hand. Houston has already lost 30-23 at Indianapolis. Even though this game is at home, it is still a divisional matchup on a short week where crazy things can happen.
  • Oakland Raiders: The Raiders have earned a lot of respect after a three-game winning streak. What scares me is that they travel across the country in the early time slot to face the Jets.
  • Tennessee Titans: This is a divisional matchup and a rematch of a game the Titans lost at Jacksonville 20-7. Total stay away.
  • San Francisco 49ers: Many people are still doubting the 49ers even though they sit at 9-1. We will learn a lot about San Francisco over the next six weeks as their schedule is murderous (Packers, at Ravens, at Saints, Falcons, Rams, at Seahawks). I want no part of the 49ers in survivor pools over the next six weeks.
  • Baltimore Ravens: The Ravens are the hottest team in football. They are currently riding a six-game winning streak, and Lamar Jackson has become the favorite for MVP. However, this is still a road game against the defending NFC champions.

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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.