NFL Survivor Pool Advice: Week 13
If you were still alive in survivor pools entering Week 12, it is a good bet you are still alive entering Week 13. Favorites went 11-3 SU last week, which each of the six biggest favorites on the board winning their games. The only upsets were the Buccaneers over the Falcons, the Jets over the Raiders, and the Redskins over the Lions. None of these games had spreads bigger than 3.5 points, so it is likely survivor contestants avoided the landmines and looked elsewhere.
This week's column will outline the following categories: Safest Picks, Riskier Plays That Will Be Popular, and the Picks to Stay Far Away From. Even though survivor pool rules say you cannot pick the same team twice, I will outline multiple scenarios in case bettors wish to navigate their own path, or have already used the teams I will suggest.
Here is a list of odds for all the favorites to win their matchups in Week 13 (odds courtesy of FanDuel).
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| TEAM | ODDS |
| Kansas City Chiefs | -470 |
| Carolina Panthers | -460 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | -420 |
| New Orleans Saints | -300 |
| Dallas Cowboys | -290 |
| Green Bay Packers | -270 |
| Los Angeles Rams | -196 |
| New York Jets | -190 |
| Baltimore Ravens | -188 |
| New England Patriots | -164 |
| Seattle Seahawks | -150 |
| Indianapolis Colts | -148 |
| Chicago Bears | -142 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | -138 |
| Cleveland Browns | -116 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | -112 |
Safest Picks
Kansas City Chiefs (-470)
Every year, the "Andy Reid's record off a bye week" gets stated by the pundits. This is the week for that stat, as the Chiefs enter this matchup against the Raiders after having last week off. Andy Reid's teams are 17-3 SU off a bye, and this year's Chiefs are licking their chops to face a Raiders team that just lost by 31 points to the Jets. Oakland received a ton of hype following their three-game winning streak. What was lost in that hype was the fact that all three games were played at home. The Raiders are just 1-4 on the road. Oakland lost to these same Chiefs 28-10 at home in Week 2. Patrick Mahomes should be fully healthy off a bye week and will exploit the Raiders’ 28th-ranked pass defense. If you have not used the Chiefs yet, now is a great time.
Green Bay Packers (-270)
I know what you are thinking. Why would one pick the Packers a week after getting humiliated 37-8 on national television? The answer is because they were humiliated by the 10-1 San Francisco 49ers, and this week's opponent is anything but the 49ers. The New York Giants enter this game on a seven-game losing streak. Their defense ranks 27th in the league and allows 28 PPG. Green Bay could not keep San Francisco's front four out of their backfield. This should not be an issue against the Giants defense who is tied for 19th in the league with 26 sacks.
Green Bay needs a win to keep pace with the Vikings in the NFC North race, while continuing their quest for a first round bye as well. This is a great opportunity for the Packers offense to get right again. If you have both the Chiefs and Packers available, use the Chiefs since the Packers are home to the Redskins next week.
Riskier Plays That Will Be Popular
Carolina Panthers (-460)
The Panthers welcome the 2-9 Redskins to Carolina this week. Washington comes into this game with some momentum after beating the Lions last week. While the Panthers should win this game, what scares me is their motivation level entering this week. The Saints practically shut the door on the NFC South race with their 34-31 win over the Panthers. This was a devastating loss for Carolina in that they should have taken a three-point lead late in the fourth quarter, but instead missed a chip shot field goal. Given that a Wild Card berth seems out of the question as well, will the Panthers be able to get up for this game?
Philadelphia Eagles (-420)
The Eagles are another team that should win this week. They head to Miami to take on the 2-9 Dolphins. Philadelphia is not the smartest play this week given all their injuries. They still have to face the Redskins once more and the Giants twice. Why not wait until they are healthier on offense instead of rolling the dice with a banged-up receiving corps and backfield?
New Orleans Saints (-300)
The Saints almost blew a game against the Panthers in which they were close to double-digit favorites. Now they head to Atlanta to take on a Falcons team that beat them by 17 three weeks ago. And it is a short week. The Saints don't exactly breed confidence this week.
Dallas Cowboys (-290)
The Cowboys are being given a lot of respect by oddsmakers, who instilled them as seven-point favorites over the 8-3 Buffalo Bills. While the Bills certainly don't make it look pretty, they know how to find a way to win. They are every bit as capable of shutting down Amari Cooper just as the Patriots did last week. If the Bills can find a running game against a Cowboys rush defense that allows 104.8 rushing YPG, they are capable of pulling an upset (if you can even call it one) on Thanksgiving.
Picks to Stay Far Away From
Los Angeles Rams (-196)
The Rams were flat out exposed on Monday night by the Ravens. Something is not right with Jared Goff. In addition, Lamar Jackson ran wild on this defense last week. Why can't Kyler Murray do the same?
New York Jets (-190)
The Jets have scored 34 points in three straight weeks. However, the Bengals have been surprisingly competitive in more than half of their games this year. They also announced they are going back to Andy Dalton as starting quarterback. Are the Bengals really going 0-16?
Baltimore Ravens (-188)
This has nothing to do with the Ravens, as they look like the most complete team in the NFL. However, the 49ers are 10-1 for a reason. Their top-ranked defense has what it takes to slow down the dynamic Ravens offense.
New England Patriots (-164)
The Patriots are the ugliest 10-1 team in recent memory. Until this offense can score more consistently, I will continue to look elsewhere.
Seattle Seahawks (-150)
Their opponent, the Vikings, are a legitimate contender in the NFC. Dalvin Cook is capable of running wild on a softer than usual Seahawks defense.
Indianapolis Colts (-148)
The Titans offense has been on fire since Ryan Tannehill took over. The Titans have won four of their last five games, and the Colts are a banged-up team at the moment.
Chicago Bears (-142)
Have you seen Mitchell Trubisky play quarterback this season? Plus, Detroit is a magical place on Thanksgiving Day.
Los Angeles Chargers (-138)
Philip Rivers has seven interceptions in his last two games. Until he shows he can take better care of the football, I will not bet on the Chargers.
Cleveland Browns (-116)
The Browns chances improved once the Steelers named Devlin Hodges the starter over Mason Rudolph. However, this game will be chippy, and betting this game is really like betting which team will best keep their composure.
Jacksonville Jaguars (-112)
The Jaguars have lost their last three games by an average of 21.7 PPG. They are not exactly the safest bet at the moment.
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.