NFL Survivor Pool Advice: Week 14 (2020)
After the 1:00 PM ET games on Sunday in Week 13, it started to have the feel that we were in for another dull week from a survivor pool perspective. The Raiders narrowly avoided a monumental upset over the winless Jets after New York’s inexcusable defensive play calling down the stretch. In addition, the Vikings blew an eight-point lead in the final minute but went on to beat the Jaguars in overtime.
Things took a major turn from there, as the Seattle Seahawks were shocked by the Daniel Jones-less Giants at home. In addition, the Pittsburgh Steelers were handed their first loss by the Washington Football Team, although those that read this column were warned that Pittsburgh was a risky play.
Favorites went 11-4 SU last week, but two of the losses were from the top four favorites. The four favorites who lost were the Pittsburgh Steelers (-480), Seattle Seahawks (-460), Tennessee Titans (-270), and Chicago Bears (-162).
Like always, my selections for this week will be broken down into the following categories: safest picks, riskier plays that will be popular, and contrarian plays to beat a large pool. Even though survivor pool rules say you cannot pick the same team twice, I will outline multiple scenarios in case bettors wish to navigate their own path. Here is a list of odds for all the favorites to win their matchups in Week 14.
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| TEAM | ODDS |
| Seattle Seahawks | -770 |
| Green Bay Packers | -370 |
| Tennessee Titans | -360 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | -335 |
| New Orleans Saints | -310 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | -295 |
| Los Angeles Rams | -260 |
| San Francisco 49ers | -205 |
| Dallas Cowboys | -184 |
| Carolina Panthers | -180 |
| Indianapolis Colts | -144 |
| Arizona Cardinals | -142 |
| Atlanta Falcons | -134 |
| Buffalo Bills | -134 |
| Houston Texans | -130 |
| Baltimore Ravens | -112 |
Safest Picks
Seattle Seahawks (-770), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-295)
I know what you are thinking. The Seattle Seahawks land in the safest picks section in a home game against a team from New York? Yes, because one New York team was first place in their division while the New York team they play this week is a hapless mess. The Jets gave the Raiders all they could handle and should have won the game, but it was the way they lost that gives them no chance to be competitive last week. After an inexplicable all-out blitz that allowed Henry Ruggs III to beat single coverage for the game-winning touchdown, Jets defensive coordinator Gregg Williams was fired this week. New York is not likely to be motivated after a crushing loss to fly cross country and play a desperate Seahawks team who is looking to get a bad taste out of their mouths. Plus, Seahawks safety Jamal Adams is looking to live in the backfield to exact revenge against his former franchise. Trust the Seahawks this week if they did not burn you last week.
You know it is a tough week when we are picking against a Minnesota Vikings team that would be the seventh seed in the NFC if the playoffs started today. However, that is the trust we are placing in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and quarterback Tom Brady, as he is 14-4 SU off a bye week in his career. Minnesota should have lost their last two home games against the Panthers and Jaguars. Now the Vikings are 6.5-point road underdogs, and they are 1-9 SU in their last 10 games as underdogs of six or more points. If the pickings are slim elsewhere, the Buccaneers should not disappoint.
Riskier Plays That Will Be Popular
Green Bay Packers (-370), Tennessee Titans (-360), Kansas City Chiefs (-335), New Orleans Saints (-310)
Outside of maybe Patrick Mahomes, there is no one playing better at the quarterback position than Aaron Rodgers for the Green Bay Packers. He faces a Lions team this week that they torched for 42 points in a 42-21 Week 2 home win. However, Detroit seemed to play inspired football under interim coach Darrell Bevell last week with a come-from-behind win over the Bears. In addition, one should always be wary of divisional rematches late in the season especially ones where the road team is favored. Divisional home underdogs have been outstanding ATS this season, so do not be surprised if this game is much closer than their first meeting.
The Tennessee Titans were surprisingly non-competitive in their home loss to the Browns last week. They now hit the road to face a Jaguars team that is ripe to pick someone off. Continually targeting the Jaguars in survivor pools is like playing with fire, as one of these days you are about to get burned. Outside of a blowout loss to the Steelers, Jacksonville had opportunities to win each of their last five games. They just held Dalvin Cook to 3.8 YPC and will have a great shot to beat Tennessee if they can do the same to Derrick Henry. Just like the Packers-Lions, avoid divisional matchups where the favorite is on the road!
We are so used to the Kansas City Chiefs rolling over every opponent they play that it seems odd to put them in the “risky play†category. This is a testament to how well the Dolphins defense has played, as they rank second in the league allowing just 17.7 PPG. Miami will certainly need to score more than they have been under Tua Tagovailoa to keep up with the Chiefs. However, we have seen in year’s past that crazy things can happen in the heat and humidity of Miami. It would not be the smartest thing to bet against an 8-4 team this late in the season.
The New Orleans Saints will be a trendy pick this week given how much disarray the Philadelphia Eagles are in. Jalen Hurts was named the Eagles starting quarterback this week, but picking the Saints could still be risky considering they do not have much game film by which to scout him. In addition, there is a chance Drew Brees is cleared to play for New Orleans this week. While that is usually good news, it would be wiser to wait a week to see how he recovered from his multiple rib fractures.
Contrarian Play To Beat a Large Pool
Atlanta Falcons (-134)
This late in the season, it is likely many contestants have used all of the best teams and have very slim pickings from here on out. While the Atlanta Falcons are not the most foolproof pick, they are still facing a 3-9 Chargers team whose only win in the last six games has come against the New York Jets. Not only is Los Angeles not winning much, they also have not covered the spread in any of their last six games. Head coach Anthony Lynn’s seat appears just as hot as New York’s Adam Gase at this point, which begs the question how motivated are his players to play for him. Atlanta’s only two losses in their last five games have come against New Orleans, and there is no shame in that. They have played much better defensively over the last month, and will look to follow a similar blueprint that Patriots head coach Bill Belichick gave them for how to slow down rookie quarterback Justin Herbert.
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