NFL Survivor Pool Advice: Week 15 (2021)
Week 14 was one of the easier weeks for survivor pool contests in recent memory. Favorites dominated, with the top ten moneyline favorites on the board winning by at least seven points. As a whole, favorites went 12-2 SU last week, with the lone loss coming from Carolina (-152) and Arizona (-146).
A glance at the Week 15 slate suggests a manageable week for survivor pool contestants with four games with double-digit spreads, provided one has those teams available for use.
Like last week, my selections for this week will be broken down into the following categories: safest picks, riskier plays that will be popular, and contrarian plays to beat a large pool. Even though survivor pool rules say you cannot pick the same team twice, I will outline multiple scenarios if bettors wish to navigate their own path.
Here is a list of odds for all the favorites to win their matchups in Week 15 (odds courtesy of FanDuel).
Safest Picks
Arizona Cardinals (-770), Buffalo Bills (-500), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-500), Dallas Cowboys (-490)
The Detroit Lions will be much healthier this week, as they were without several key players on the reserve/COVID-19 list in last week’s loss to the Broncos. However, the Arizona Cardinals are still in the hunt for the NFC’s No. 1 seed, and they will not let a trip to a one-win Detroit team ruin those plans.
The Buffalo Bills have lost back-to-back games for the first time all season, but those two losses were to two of the best teams in the league (New England, Tampa Bay). Quarterback Josh Allen is considered “day to day†with a foot sprain he suffered last week, so this pick is predicated on him being healthy enough to play Sunday. With a trip to New England looming next week, the Bills will want to make sure they have momentum heading into that game and not a three-game losing streak.
Tampa Bay (10-3) is off to their best start since 2002, and they are 6-0 at home for the first time since 2008. In addition, they have averaged 32.8 PPG during their current four-game winning streak. They can clinch the NFC South division by beating a New Orleans team that has only won one game (over the lowly Jets) since Week 8. The Buccaneers will not squander the opportunity to clinch a division title when facing one of their biggest rivals.
The Dallas Cowboys land in the “safest picks†section, as New York Giants quarterback Daniel Jones (neck) has still not been medically cleared to play. With Mike Glennon as their starter again, Dallas is as safe a play as there is, considering Glennon has lost eight consecutive games as a starting quarterback. The Cowboys lead the NFC East by three games and can clinch the division this week with a win and a Washington loss. Therefore, there is extra motivation to end New York’s three-game home winning streak.
Riskier Plays That Will Be Popular
San Francisco 49ers (-430), Miami Dolphins (-375), Cleveland Browns (-260)
The San Francisco 49ers have quietly put themselves back in the playoff mix with four wins in their last five games. They have gotten back to the physical style of football that made them so successful in their Super Bowl run two years ago, relying on a punishing running game and stifling defense. They now face a Falcons team with odd home/road splits, as they are 1-5 at home but just 5-2 on the road. The 49ers should win the game, but we do not want to mess with Atlanta’s road karma.
The Miami Dolphins are coming off a bye week and have the third-longest current active winning streak in football. However, they now have three running backs on the reserve/COVID-19 list, including leading rusher Myles Gaskin. Miami’s offense was not good to begin with, as they enter this week with the 25th-ranked scoring offense (19.5 PPG) in football. They will not need much offense to beat a Jets team that averages 17.4 PPG, but I still would not want to risk my survivor pool life in a rivalry game with a team that already has a COVID-19 mini outbreak which may get worse.
The Cleveland Browns face a Raiders team that has lost five of six games after starting the season 0-2. In addition, Las Vegas has scored 16 or fewer points in five of their last six games and is 0-7 this year when Derek Carr throws for less than 300 yards. However, Cleveland has not won consecutive games since a three-game winning streak from Weeks 2-4. In addition, the Browns offense has not exactly been lighting up the scoreboard either, as they are averaging just 13.5 PPG while Baker Mayfield continues to nurse an array of injuries.
Contrarian Play To Beat a Large Pool
Jacksonville Jaguars (-154)/Houston Texans (+130)
In the list of moneyline favorites to win this week, one might be surprised to find the Jacksonville Jaguars’ name, losers of five consecutive games. That is because they are playing the Houston Texans, who have lost six straight games and share an equally abysmal 2-11 record. This being Week 15, not many survivor pool contestants are going to have the teams listed above available to choose from, making who you think will win the Jaguars-Texans matchup an intriguing late-season contrarian play.
Houston beat Jacksonville 37-21 in Week 1 and owns a seven-game winning streak against the Jaguars, spanning four seasons. Thus, if you think Houston can sweep their season series again, I would not put anyone off picking the Texans. However, if one correctly identifies the winner of this matchup, they would earn a big leg up on their competition with just three weeks left in the regular season.
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.