NFL Survivor Pool Advice: Week 15

Overall, it was a good week for favorites, as they went 12-4. Of the four straight-up losses, three — Bears over the Cowboys, 49ers over the Saints, and Chiefs over the Patriots — could be considered "mild upsets." The only favorite likely to have cost some people their spots in survivor pools was the Texans, who surprisingly lost 38-24 to the Broncos. In last week's article, readers were advised to tread lightly with the Texans, as they appeared in a typical "trap game" scenario. Houston had just come off a big win against New England and might have been looking ahead to this week’s battle against Tennessee for first place in the AFC South. 

With just three weeks remaining, kudos to all contestants who have lasted this far. Even if your survivor pool days did not last long this year, readers can gain a betting edge with money to be had on each game’s money line.

This week's column will outline the following categories: Safest Picks, Riskier Plays That Will Be Popular, and the Picks to Stay Far Away From. Even though survivor pool rules say you cannot pick the same team twice, I will outline multiple scenarios in case bettors wish to navigate their own path, or have already used the suggested teams.

Here is a list of odds for all the favorites to win their Week 15 matchups (odds courtesy of FanDuel).

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TEAM	ODDS
Baltimore Ravens	-800
San Francisco 49ers	-500
Kansas City Chiefs	-450
New England Patriots	-430
New Orleans Saints	-380
Oakland Raiders	-270
Philadelphia Eagles	-260
Seattle Seahawks	-245
Green Bay Packers	-210
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	-194
New York Giants	-190
Tennessee Titans	-152
Cleveland Browns	-144
Minnesota Vikings	-142
Pittsburgh Steelers	-136
Dallas Cowboys	-116

Safest Picks

Baltimore Ravens (-800), New England Patriots (-430), New Orleans Saints (-380), Oakland Raiders (-270), Seattle Seahawks (-245)

For the first time all season, I provide a five-pack of Safest Picks. This is because it is likely survivor pool contestants have used many of these teams. From a betting standpoint, all of them have favorable matchups.

Baltimore Ravens
This Thursday night clash against the Jets could get ugly, quickly. Though the Jets surprisingly rank second in rushing yards allowed per game (78.8 YPG), the Ravens are not an ordinary rushing offense. Lamar Jackson needs just 22 rushing yards to break Michael Vick's single-season record for a quarterback. The Jets’ defense was banged up last week, with three starters missing from the secondary. Even if they can all get healthy in a short week, the Ravens should have their way with this defense. Throw in the fact that John Harbaugh is nearly unbeatable in prime time games, and the Ravens are as close to a lock as there is so long as a quad injury does not sideline Jackson.

New England Patriots
The Patriots desperately need a game to "get right" offensively. They have sputtered during their recent two-game losing streak, scoring just 22 against the Texans and 16 versus the Chiefs. What better team is there to feast on than the 1-12 Cincinnati Bengals? Whereas many teams coming into Cincinnati would treat the game as a cakewalk, you can bet Bill Belichick and Tom Brady will have their guys fired up to play well. Those two would settle for nothing less than a dominant performance before clashing with the Buffalo Bills the following week. A dominant performance is exactly what the Patriots should deliver.

New Orleans Saints
The Indianapolis Colts are not a terrible football team. However, there is something not right with them, as they have lost five of their last six games. Their playoff hopes all but vanished with a loss to the Buccaneers last week. Meanwhile, the Saints are still jockeying for playoff positioning with a first-round bye and home-field advantage well within their grasp. The Saints are the more motivated and more talented team, and that will show on Sunday.

Oakland Raiders
It seems odd to have so much confidence in a team that has lost three in a row and allowed 40 or more points in back-to-back contests. That is because the Raiders are facing a Jaguars team that seems to have given up on the season. Jacksonville has lost five straight games by at least 17 points and appear to lack the desire to compete. Though slim, the Raiders’ playoff chances are still alive. They are 5-2 at home this year, only losing to Kansas City and Tennessee. The Jaguars are not in the same category as those two. If you are looking for teams you have not used yet in your survivor pool, take a long look at the Raiders.

Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks are traveling across the country on a shorter week to take on the Panthers. However, that scenario did not affect them when playing the Eagles in an early time slot three weeks ago. Seattle has actually been better on the road (6-1) than at home (4-2) this year. The Panthers looked non-competitive in interim coach Perry Fewell's first game. After their 40-20 loss to the Falcons, Fewell was asked if he would make a switch from Kyle Allen to Will Grier. Though Allen will remain the starter, the Panthers do not appear talented enough to upset one of the NFC's leading contenders. 

Riskier Plays That Will Be Popular

San Francisco 49ers (-500), Kansas City Chiefs (-450), Philadelphia Eagles (-260), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-194), New York Giants (-190)

San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers proved they are capable of winning a Super Bowl after their thrilling 48-46 win in New Orleans. That makes back-to-back grueling games (Saints and Ravens) that no doubt took a huge toll on this team. Do they have enough left in the tank to perform at a high level against the Falcons? In addition to San Francisco’s fatigue, the Falcons are familiar with 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan, who was their offensive coordinator before taking this job. That familiarity gives me pause, and I am happy to look elsewhere this week.

Kansas City Chiefs
Don't look now, but the Broncos are 2-0 under quarterback Drew Lock. They have beaten two respectable opponents in the Chargers and Texans, who had just beat New England before this letdown loss. Kansas City is more than capable of doing the same against Denver, especially since it has already clinched the AFC West.

Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles had a tough test against Washington in Week 1. Granted, Dwayne Haskins was not the starting quarterback then. However, Washington has looked solid the last few weeks. It rode a two-game winning streak into Lambeau last week before narrowly losing, 20-15, to the Packers. In a topsy-turvy NFC East, the Redskins beating the Eagles at home would not be the least bit surprising, especially since the Eagles are lacking healthy wide receivers.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Buccaneers have won three in a row and continue to pile up points each game. Tampa Bay has scored 101 points during this winning streak, and the offense should once again feast against Detroit. However, Mike Evans left last week's game with a hamstring injury that will likely sideline him for the season, and Jameis Winston is set to see a hand specialist for a small fracture in his thumb. I would be concerned with these injuries if I was a Bucs backer.

New York Giants
Regardless of whether Eli Manning or Daniel Jones starts this game, the true wild card is Ryan Fitzpatrick. The Dolphins quarterback is capable of going off at any time, and the Giants seem less and less motivated to play for coach Pat Shurmur each week.

Picks to Stay Far Away From

Green Bay Packers (-210), Tennessee Titans (-152), Cleveland Browns (-144), Minnesota Vikings (-142), Pittsburgh Steelers (-136), Dallas Cowboys (-116)

Green Bay Packers
You can't trust the Packers to win this divisional game over the suddenly hot Bears. Chicago has won four of its last five, and Mitchell Trubisky seems to be over his midseason slump.

Tennessee Titans
First place in the AFC South is on the line when the Titans face the Texans this week. Deshaun Watson and the Texans are more than capable of winning a shootout.

Cleveland Browns
Don't get too excited, Cleveland fans. Yes, the Browns beat the Bengals last week, but their playoff hopes still remain dire at best. Playoff talk would effectively end with a loss in Arizona this week.

Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings have dominated at home, but they are just 3-4 on the road. They travel out west to take on the Chargers in what should be a tough battle.

Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers and Bills are two likely playoff teams, seemingly jockeying for who will be the fifth and sixth seed. There is not enough of an edge toward Pittsburgh to justify picking the AFC North squad this week.

Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys are currently 1.5-point favorites over the visiting Rams. It should surprise no one if the Rams are favored by kickoff. Dallas has lost four out of five games and may miss out on the playoffs completely if it does not turn things around quickly.

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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.