NFL Survivor Pool Advice: Week 16 (2021)
COVID-19 is starting to wreak havoc on the league, forcing three games to be rescheduled and with many teams playing at less than full strength. From a survivor pool perspective, that can be frustrating as there are deadlines to select your picks by, but there may still be the unknown of what players are active and who has cleared protocol.
However, the two biggest favorites to lose last week were simply outplayed by their opponents and do not have COVID-19 to blame. Arizona lost to Detroit as the biggest moneyline favorite on the board (-770 ML odds), as did the third-biggest favorites, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-500), whose division rival Saints continue to be a thorn in their side. As a whole, favorites went 10-6 SU last week (depending on what odds you got Cleveland and Tennessee at).
A glance at the Week 16 slate suggests COVID-19 issues will continue to rear their ugly head, especially with the Chiefs, who have Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce already on the reserve/COVID-19 list. Those still alive in survivor pools should continue to monitor injury reports daily, as who is available and who is not seems to change daily.
Like last week, my selections for this week will be broken down into the following categories: safest picks, riskier plays that will be popular, and contrarian plays to beat a large pool. Even though survivor pool rules say you cannot pick the same team twice, I will outline multiple scenarios if bettors wish to navigate their own path.
Here is a list of odds for all the favorites to win their matchups in Week 16 (odds courtesy of FanDuel).
Safest Picks
Los Angeles Chargers (-500), Philadelphia Eagles (-480), Dallas Cowboys (-480)
The Los Angeles Chargers need to pick themselves up after giving away last week’s game to the Chiefs, which was arguably their biggest home game in years. With a path to the AFC West title no longer likely, the Chargers are still squarely in the mix for a playoff spot as one of several AFC teams with an 8-6 record. Two of Houston’s three wins have come against the lowly Jaguars, and the Texans are not talented enough to keep pace with Justin Herbert and the explosive Los Angeles offense.
The Philadelphia Eagles are at a significant scheduling disadvantage having two fewer days’ rest to prepare for this game. However, with New York once again forced to start Mike Glennon in place of an injured Daniel Jones, this is an automatic play. Glennon has now lost nine consecutive games as a starting quarterback, and he has failed to lead the Giants to more than nine points in two of his three starts. In addition, Philadelphia will be out for revenge from a 13-7 road loss at the Giants in which they held New York to just 264 yards. While that loss may have many survivor pool contestants gunshy about picking the Eagles, New York has looked dysfunctional ever since that win.
The Dallas Cowboys are another team playing their second game against a divisional opponent, as they beat Washington 27-20 on the road two weeks ago. The Dallas defense forced four turnovers in that game, and are the healthiest they have been all season, with Randy Gregory and Demarcus Lawrence wreaking havoc on opposing quarterbacks. Dallas now faces a Washington team with two fewer days to prepare after playing on Tuesday night. In addition, the Football Team will likely still be dealing with some remnants of their COVID-19 outbreak from last week.
Riskier Plays That Will Be Popular
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-600), Kansas City Chiefs (-500), Green Bay Packers (-375), Seattle Seahawks (-300)
In theory, this is not a good week to play a Tampa Bay Buccaneers that was just shut out at home by the Saints, which was the first time a Tom Brady-led team was shut out since 2006. However, the Buccaneers are a severely banged-up football team at the moment, as they lost Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, and Leonard Fournette to injury last week. With a comfortable lead in the NFC South, the team may not rush those players back to the field, and Tampa Bay’s offense is not nearly as explosive without them.
The Kansas City Chiefs own the league’s longest current winning streak at seven games and have had three extra days to prepare for this week’s matchup with the Pittsburgh Steelers. However, Mike Tomlin’s bunch has reveled in the underdog role, as they are 43-23 ATS as underdogs in his career. Though the Steelers have lost three consecutive road games, their defense is still capable of playing lights out at any given moment, and I would not want to risk my survivor pool life against a franchise as storied as Pittsburgh’s.
The Green Bay Packers benefit from facing a Cleveland team coming off a short week and many COVID-19 issues. However, their performance at Baltimore was concerning, even in victory, as they allowed 30 points to Tyler Huntley and the Ravens. At 6-0, the Packers are the lone remaining undefeated team at home. However, the Browns are built for cold weather football with an outstanding offensive line and running game, and they are capable of pulling an upset.
The Seattle Seahawks will be a popular play at home against the Chicago Bears, but can a team that has lost seven of its last ten games be trusted? Seattle’s home-field advantage at Lumen Field has been non-existent, as they have won just two of their six home games. Furthermore, with their playoff hopes all but gone after last week’s loss to the Rams, we question Seattle’s motivation level heading into this week.
Contrarian Play To Beat a Large Pool
Atlanta Falcons (-215)
This late in the season, it is likely that survivor pool contestants do not have many elite teams left to choose from. Thus, many will be forced to “roll the dice†with the Atlanta Falcons facing a Detroit Lions team coming off a mammoth upset of Arizona. There are many riskier plays this week than Atlanta at home, as the Lions are 0-6-1 on the road this season. Atlanta has lost three consecutive home games by a combined 77-30, but we expect the Falcons to keep their slim playoff hopes alive with a crucial victory over the two-win Lions.
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.