NFL Survivor Pool Advice: Week 17 (2021)

As if it was not hard enough to navigate an entire season in NFL survivor pools, COVID-19 is making it that much harder. Many contestants were aware of the virus news that struck the Los Angeles Chargers late in the week, forcing them to play without running back Austin Ekeler and Mike Williams. However, they still went off as the second-biggest favorites of the week, only to be non-competitive in a 41-29 loss to the lowly Texans. Each week, it is seemingly a guessing game of who is active, who is on the reserve/COVID-19 list, who is vaccinated, and who has cleared protocol in time. Thus, if you are still alive in your survivor pool contests, a big kudos to you.

As a whole, favorites went 11-5 SU last week (depending on what odds you got Miami at). The five favorites to lose were the Chargers (-500), Seahawks (-300), 49ers (-184), Patriots (-136), and Cardinals (-124).

A glance at the Week 16 slate has four teams with double-digit point spreads, but it is improbable many survivor pool contestants have them available for selection. If you do have them available at this stage in the competition, they are no-brainer plays regardless of matchup. However, with those teams not likely available, this week’s safest picks section will begin with the teams that do not have double-digit point spreads.

Like last week, my selections for this week will be broken down into the following categories: safest picks, riskier plays that will be popular, and contrarian plays to beat a large pool. Even though survivor pool rules say you cannot pick the same team twice, I will outline multiple scenarios if bettors wish to navigate their own path.

Here is a list of odds for all the favorites to win their matchups in Week 17 (odds courtesy of FanDuel).

Safest Picks (outside of the favorites with double-digit point spreads)

Indianapolis Colts (-335), New Orleans Saints (-310), Chicago Bears (-270), Los Angeles Chargers (-240)

Provided Carson Wentz clears protocol by Sunday after testing positive for COVID-19, the Indianapolis Colts are as safe a play as it gets, as they have rolled off six wins in seven games. Arguably Indianapolis’ most impressive win in that stretch was last week’s victory at Arizona, as they overcame the loss of nine starters to pull out a tough road victory. The Colts are 9-0 when Jonathan Taylor runs for at least 100 yards, and it is an excellent bet he does it again versus a Raiders team that ranks 19th in rush defense (115.7 yards per game).

New Orleans was put in a precarious situation last week, playing their Monday Night Football game with Ian Book as their starting quarterback after Taysom Hill and Trevor Siemian were placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list. However, with at least one of Hill or Siemian likely active this week, the Saints are worthy favorites over a Panthers team that looks like they are playing out the string. Carolina has officially been eliminated from playoff contention and has lost ten of their last 12 games after a 3-0 start.

The Chicago Bears were another team that looked like they were playing out the string until they outscored Seattle 11-0 in the fourth quarter last week in a comeback victory. Head coach Matt Nagy may or may not be a lame-duck coach at this point, but the Bears were impressive in victory, as Nick Foles became the third Bears quarterback to win a start this season. Meanwhile, New York gave up on the Jake Fromm experiment early against the Eagles and tabbed Mike Glennon to finish the game. The Giants have averaged 11.5 PPG and have a -8 turnover margin during their four-game losing streak, making the Bears a worthwhile survivor pool pick this late in the season.

We spoke about the Los Angeles Chargers in the opening but would be confident in going back to the well with them if needed against the Denver Broncos. Denver has lost six straight road games against AFC West opponents and is 0-7 when allowing 17 or more points. Los Angeles will again be without Mike Williams, who is forced to miss a second game as an unvaccinated player who tested positive for COVID-19. However, they should have Austin Ekeler back, which should help jump-start their offense this week.

Riskier Plays That Will Be Popular

Seattle Seahawks (-300), Dallas Cowboys (-230)

Many will jump on the chance to pick Seattle at home in their survivor pools against a two-win Detroit team, but there is no telling which Seahawks team will show up this week. Seattle is playing their first game having been eliminated from playoff contention, and rumors are already swirling about the organization’s future and where Russell Wilson will play next year. On the other hand, Detroit is playing hard every week under first-year head coach Dan Campbell and is more than capable of pulling an upset on the road.

The Dallas Cowboys are coming off their largest win since 1980, a 42-point blowout of Washington. Meanwhile, the Cardinals are trending in the wrong direction, having lost three straight games, and they are no longer in control of their own destiny in the NFC West. However, this is still an Arizona team that has won ten games and will be a desperate team to try and get things figured out before the playoffs start.

Contrarian Play To Beat a Large Pool

Tennessee Titans (-168)

In backing the Tennessee Titans this week, one is fading the red-hot Dolphins, who have the league’s second-longest active winning streak (seven games). However, the Titans will be motivated to try and secure the AFC South division title while also honing in on the AFC’s No. 1 seed if Cincinnati were to beat Kansas City. In addition, the Titans got back wide receiver AJ Brown, who made a world of difference in their passing game in a win over San Francisco (11 receptions, 145 yards, one touchdown). Finally, Tennessee has a massive scheduling advantage in this game, having last played on Thursday night while facing a Miami team off short rest having played on Monday.

Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts

Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our How To Bet and Sports Betting Strategy and Advice pages are for you. You can get started with our Sports Betting 101 Section — including 10 Sports Betting Tips for Beginners â€” or head to more advanced sports betting strategy — like Key Numbers When Betting Against the Spread â€” to learn more.

Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.