NFL Survivor Pool Advice: Week 3 (2020)
What happened to all the upsets? After a crazy Week 1, it was an uneventful Week 2 in the NFL for survivor pool purposes. Favorites went 15-1 or 14-2 SU depending on what line you were looking at from the Rams-Eagles matchup. The only other favorite to lose were the New Orleans Saints as -245 moneyline favorites. However, they were not even listed in last week’s column as we had an eerie feeling the Raiders were going to play inspired in the first game in their new stadium.
Will Week 3 be chock full of upsets or will the favorites remain relatively unscathed? Given that there is only one favorite with moneyline odds higher than -330, we could be in for another chaotic week of upsets.
Like last week, my selections for this week will be broken down by the following categories: safest picks, riskier plays that will be popular, and contrarian plays to beat a large pool. Even though survivor pool rules say you cannot pick the same team twice, I will outline multiple scenarios in case bettors wish to navigate their own path. Here is a list of odds for all the favorites to win their matchups in Week 3 (odds courtesy of FanDuel).
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| TEAM | ODDS |
| Indianapolis Colts | -480 |
| Cleveland Browns | -330 |
| New England Patriots | -290 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | -270 |
| Arizona Cardinals | -260 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | -255 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | -235 |
| Seattle Seahawks | -235 |
| Baltimore Ravens | -210 |
| San Francisco 49ers | -200 |
| Atlanta Falcons | -198 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | -198 |
| New Orleans Saints | -168 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | -156 |
| Tennessee Titans | -136 |
| Buffalo Bills | -124 |
Safest Picks
Indianapolis Colts (-480), Los Angeles Chargers (-270)
The Indianapolis Colts shook off a surprising Week 1 loss against the Jaguars in a big way with a convincing 28-11 Week 2 win over the Vikings in their home opener. Those that have not used the Colts in their survivor pools yet may be scorned from using them after so many of their competitors lost with them two weeks ago. However, that was a road game while this is a home game against the New York Jets who have looked abysmal through two weeks. The Jets are not only 0-2 SU, but they are 0-2 ATS after two losses by a combined 28 points. New York media speculates weekly about when head coach Adam Gase is going to be fired. In addition, the Jets’ offensive weapons with an injured Le’Veon Bell and Jamison Crowder were laughable last week. Pick the Colts with confidence.
The Los Angeles Chargers are only the fourth-highest favorite on the board, but they can be played with confidence as well in Week 2. It is not always everyone’s practice to look ahead on the schedule, but the fact remains that you are likely not using the Chargers in a survivor pool against any of their divisional opponents. They may have somewhat of a quarterback controversy on their hands given how well rookie Justin Herbert played against the Chiefs last week. However, head coach Anthony Lynn has declared Tyrod Taylor the starter if he is healthy. The fact that Herbert looked so good against the Chiefs should allow survivor pool contestants to play the Chargers with confidence even if Taylor is out. In addition, the Carolina Panthers will be playing their first full game without arguably the best running back on the planet in Christian McCaffrey. As long as there is no hangover from the Chiefs loss, I am higher on the Chargers this week than most oddsmakers.
Riskier Plays That Will Be Popular
Cleveland Browns (-330), New England Patriots (-290), Arizona Cardinals (-260), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-255)
The Cleveland Browns offense made up for a lackluster Week 1 performance in a big week this past week against the Bengals on Thursday night. The Browns totaled 434 yards en route to a 35-30 victory that was not as close as the final score indicated. Perhaps there is part of me that will admittedly always be scorned by picking the Browns in a survivor pool. This seems like a good spot off of extra rest against a Washington team who just laid an egg at Arizona. However, the thought of Washington beating Philadelphia in Week 1 still resonates and I cannot fathom losing a survivor pool entry with the Browns in this spot when there are better options available.
The New England Patriots looked impressive even in a loss at the Seahawks. Cam Newton appears healthy and is making people wonder how every other NFL team who needed a quarterback passed on him in free agency. Though they played late on Sunday night, the Patriots do get a scheduling edge over the Raiders who played on Monday and now have to travel cross-country for a 1:00 ET start. However, the Raiders looked impressive on Monday night in knocking off the Saints and improving to 2-0. With the Patriots still having three games remaining against the Jets and Dolphins combined, there are much better spots to use them.
The Arizona Cardinals suddenly have the look of a team that is destined to start 5-0 and be a contender all year long in the brutal NFC West division. However, it is the first point that has me looking elsewhere in survivor pools this week. If you did not already pick Arizona, their next two games are at the McCaffrey-less Panthers and the dysfunctional Jets. Though both road games, both of those weeks are better spots to use them than this week as Matthew Stafford and company are more than capable of stealing a game on the road.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will be a popular pick despite the fact they are playing on the road in the altitude of Denver, simply because Broncos quarterback Drew Lock is out and backup Jeff Driskel will be under center. However, tread lightly as Driskel had the Broncos driving deep into Pittsburgh territory late in the fourth quarter for a chance to upset the Steelers. Despite also being without wide receiver Courtland Sutton and linebacker Von Miller, the Broncos are too dangerous in the altitude. In addition, Tampa Bay did not have their game against the Panthers salted away until a late touchdown run by Leonard Fournette.
Contrarian Play To Beat a Large Pool
Philadelphia Eagles (-235)
I understand that the Eagles are 0-2 and have lost both games by a combined 28 points to the Washington Football Team and Los Angeles Rams. I get that the Bengals are coming off of more rest having last played on Thursday night and that the Eagles are still a banged-up football team. However, Philadelphia’s next three games are at the 49ers, at the Steelers, and home to the Ravens. If they do not sense the urgency of this game and take care of business against an 0-2 team with a rookie quarterback on their home field, it is going to be a long year in the City of Brotherly Love. It is not the easiest pick to make, but is almost certain to have you “zigging†while everyone is in your large pool is “zagging.â€
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.