NFL Survivor Pool Advice: Week 4 (2020)
After an uncharacteristically boring week in Week 2 for survivor pool purposes, Week 3 got back to the carnage that we have all grown accustomed to as annual contestants in such pools. While the three biggest favorites from a moneyline standpoint avoided upsets, three of the next four favorites down the odds list knocked contestants out of survivor pools. In total, favorites went 9-6-1 SU with Philadelphia’s tie counting as a loss for survivor pool purposes.
Four teams with moneyline odds of -200 or bigger fell in survivor pools in Week 3. Those teams included the Los Angeles Chargers (-270), Arizona Cardinals (-260), Philadelphia Eagles (-235, push for ML betting purposes), and the Baltimore Ravens (-210).
Like always, my selections for this week will be broken down by the following categories: safest picks, riskier plays that will be popular, and contrarian plays to beat a large pool. Even though survivor pool rules say you cannot pick the same team twice, I will outline multiple scenarios in case bettors wish to navigate their own path. Here is a list of odds for all the favorites to win their matchups in Week 4 (odds courtesy of FanDuel).
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| TEAM | ODDS |
| Baltimore Ravens | -850 |
| Los Angeles Rams | -670 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | -350 |
| Green Bay Packers | -335 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | -320 |
| Seattle Seahawks | -300 |
| San Francisco 49ers | -275 |
| Dallas Cowboys | -230 |
| Houston Texans | -198 |
| New Orleans Saints | -196 |
| Arizona Cardinals | -174 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | -164 |
| Denver Broncos | -154 |
| Buffalo Bills | -152 |
| Indianapolis Colts | -148 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | -130 |
Safest Picks
Baltimore Ravens (-850), Los Angeles Rams (-670), Green Bay Packers (-335)
There are many survivor pool contestants that will use up the best teams in the league quickly as they are merely in “survive and advance†mode. However, no matter what kind of survivor pool contestant you are, you have not likely used the Baltimore Ravens yet. The Ravens started their season with a divisional game against the Browns, then played two playoff teams from a year ago in back-to-back weeks in the Texans and Chiefs. Now they get to take out their frustrations from Monday night on the road against a Washington team that ranks 30th in total offense. The fact that Washington has trouble scoring does not bode well for their chances against the high-flying Ravens offense. In addition, their Week 1 win over the Eagles looks less and less impressive given Philadelphia’s lack of improvement in the last two weeks. Usually, road teams are ones to be wary of in survivor pools. However, traveling from Baltimore to D.C. hardly qualifies as a road trip (maybe a one-hour bus ride) and no home field can be characterized as a distinct advantage in these days of COVID.
The Los Angeles Rams nearly went into Buffalo and gave Bills fans a taste of a Frank Reich-like playoff comeback. The Rams fought back from 28-3 to take a 32-28 lead late in the fourth quarter. If not for a highly questionable pass interference call on fourth down on Buffalo’s last drive, they would have walked out with an impressive 3-0 record. They are third in the league in total offense and are surely not going to lose to an 0-3 Giants team at home that just got steamrolled by an injury-plagued 49ers team. Without Saquon Barkley, the Giants are a team with no identity who is still trying to find their footing under first-year head coach Joe Judge. You are likely not picking the Rams in any of their divisional games considering how strong the NFC West is, so you can argue the Rams are an even better pick than the Ravens are for survivor pool purposes this week.
The Green Bay Packers head home to face an 0-3 Atlanta Falcons team that could easily be 2-1. However, it is how they lost the last two weeks which should give bettors confidence that they are not going to turn around and beat Green Bay at Lambeau Field. The Falcons blew a 29-10 halftime lead to the Cowboys and followed that up by blowing a 26-10 fourth quarter lead to the Bears. They are likely to be a mentally beaten and worn down team that now faces a Green Bay squad that is coming off a big win in New Orleans and is riding high at 3-0. In addition, Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan has always had worse numbers outdoors than while playing in a dome. Even if this game turns into a shootout like all Falcons games have to this point, we trust the arm of Aaron Rodgers as he is quietly playing at an MVP level to this point.
Riskier Plays That Will Be Popular
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-350), Seattle Seahawks (-300), San Francisco 49ers (-275), Dallas Cowboys (-230)
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers did not look great in their win over the Broncos, but they did not have to be as Denver could not muster any serious threat last week. Tampa Bay will be a popular pick given that rookie quarterback Justin Herbert is likely to get another start for the Chargers who are coming off a disappointing loss to the Panthers. However, the Chargers are a tricky team to figure out as two weeks ago they were minutes away from upsetting the Chiefs. The formula to beat Tom Brady has always been to get pressure on him with the front four so that you can drop everyone else back in coverage. The Chargers can do exactly that with edge rushers Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram. Tampa Bay is not likely to lose, but there are much better options this week.
The Seattle Seahawks have a feeling of invincibility right now as they are 3-0 but have statistically the worst defense in the league. That is because Russell Wilson has been magical through three games, throwing 14 touchdowns to one interception and with a quarterback rating of 139.0. However, their Week 4 game in Miami is a terrible spot. The Seahawks have won back-to-back thrilling games over two likely playoff teams in the Patriots and Cowboys. Now they have to make the furthest flight one can possibly make in the NFL from Seattle to Miami to take on a Dolphins team who has an extra three days rest advantage. In addition, Seattle will likely be without leading rusher Chris Carson who is out 1-2 weeks with a knee injury. Do not use Seattle this week as this has “letdown†written all over it.
The San Francisco 49ers have more than taken care of business after a Week 1 loss to the Cardinals, beating the two New York teams by a combined 67-22. They head home to face an Eagles team that many would consider the most disappointing team to this point, given what their preseason expectations were. However, the Eagles are still a talented team that should eventually put it together. The 49ers may get quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo and running back Raheem Mostert back, but it would be smarter to wait until they were fully healthy and playing a weaker opponent.
The Dallas Cowboys have major issues defensively and are playing with fire relying on Dak Prescott to throw for 420 yards a game. Dallas has the 26th-ranked defense in terms of total yards and 30th-ranked defense in terms of PPG allowed. Meanwhile, the Cleveland Browns are over .500 for the first time since 2014. However, it is fair to wonder if that is just a product of an easy early-season schedule that saw them play Cincinnati and Washington in back-to-back weeks. There are much better spots to use the Cowboys in, especially since they play in a historically bad NFC East division.
Contrarian Play To Beat a Large Pool
Cincinnati Bengals (-164)
A strategy for beating large pools namely resides in avoiding the “chalk†picks and opting for a more under-the-radar game so as to keep all of the league’s best teams available for later in the season when the pickings are slimmer. The Cincinnati Bengals have not won a game this season, but no one can argue they have not been competitive or that the future does not look bright under rookie quarterback Joe Burrow. The Bengals could easily be 2-1 with wins over the Chargers and Eagles if one or two bounces of the ball went their way. As it is, they are favored over a Jacksonville team that looks every bit the team many predicted to have the worst record in the league since their Week 1 upset of the Colts. Granted, the Jaguars have the benefit of three extra days rest while the Bengals had to play an entire overtime period on Sunday. It is a risky play but might be worth the reward of using a team like Cincinnati that you would not likely use in any other spot this year.
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