NFL Survivor Pool Advice: Week 4 (2021)

Another week down and another drama-free week for our survivor pool readers. Last week’s four safest picks all easily covered big point spreads and won by an average of more than 18 points per game. Additionally, we identified a couple of correct “risky plays,” as the Steelers lost outright to the Bengals and the Ravens need every inch of an NFL-record 66-yard field goal to avoid an upset against the Lions. Even our contrarian play is 3-0 on the season, which if played, gives contestants a big leg up with many of the league’s best teams still at their disposal. In all, the six largest favorites won outright, which should have many survivor pool contestants confident heading into Week 4.

Like last week, my selections for this week will be broken down into the following categories: safest picks, riskier plays that will be popular, and contrarian plays to beat a large pool. Even though survivor pool rules say you cannot pick the same team twice, I will outline multiple scenarios if bettors wish to navigate their own path.

Here is a list of odds for all the favorites to win their matchups in Week 4 (odds courtesy of FanDuel).

Safest Picks

Buffalo Bills (-1500), New Orleans Saints (-355), Tennessee Titans (-350)

The Buffalo Bills seemed like a team waiting to explode, especially after their disappointing Week 1 performance against the Steelers. Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen easily had his best game of the season, throwing for 358 yards and accounting for five total touchdowns, and reminded everyone why he was in the conversation for MVP last season. The Bills are by far the NFL’s biggest favorites so far this season, as they should be when facing a Texans team led by Davis Mills. Houston totaled just 193 yards in their Thursday night loss to the Panthers. So while they have three extra days’ rest to prepare for this game, there is no way they will be in a position offensively to keep up with the Bills this week.

So much for the Jameis Winston doubters. A week after he laid an egg, throwing for just 111 yards and two interceptions against the Panthers, Winston responded with a clean 128-yard and two-touchdown performance against the Patriots. However, the biggest takeaway from the Saints Week 3 road victory is that their defense has looked legit for two out of the three weeks. They generated 18 quarterback pressures on 53 Mac Jones dropbacks, good for a pressure rate of 34.0%. The Giants are not particularly known for stellar offensive line play, and Daniel Jones will be running for his life this week. New York’s offensive attack may be even more compromised after wide receivers Sterling Shepard, and Darius Slayton could not finish last week’s game with hamstring injuries.

The Tennessee Titans have won back-to-back games and take their physical ground game on the road to face the o-3 New York Jets. The Jets have scored just 20 points through their first three games, which is the lowest in franchise history. And they have not had a lead for a single second of any of their first three games, which Rich Cimini on Twitter pointed out is historic.

Riskier Plays That Will Be Popular

Dallas Cowboys (-215), Chicago Bears (-166)

The Dallas Cowboys play a second straight home game this week, though they have one less day to prepare after playing on Monday night. Dallas is at even more of a scheduling disadvantage when considering the Panthers have had three extra days to prepare for the game, having last played on Thursday night. Carolina’s win on Thursday was costly as running back Christian McCaffrey and cornerback Jaycee Horn will now miss this game. However, Carolina’s defense is ranked No. 1 heading into this week, and their scheduling advantage would worry me if I contemplated picking the Cowboys.

Many survivor pool contests will take a shot with the Bears against the Lions this week, but this would not be a game on my radar. Detroit came a record-setting field goal away from beating the Ravens last week, and Bears quarterback Justin Fields looked like a deer in headlights after a 6-for-20 performance in last week’s loss. Detroit beat Chicago at Soldier Field last year and have won five of their last eight road games against the Bears. One should let Fields get more NFL experience under his belt before risking their survivor pool lives on him and his team.

Contrarian Play To Beat a Large Pool

Cincinnati Bengals (-350)

The definition of a great contrarian play in survivor pools is picking a team that you would be hard-pressed to use in many other weeks while saving the most dominant teams in the league for more challenging weeks. To this point, we suggested using the Panthers, Washington, and the Raiders, and now we will add the Bengals to that list. Cincinnati comes home for a short week after having beat their rival Steelers on the road. The Joe Burrow to Ja’Marr Chase college connection seems real after the duo hooked up for another touchdown. In addition, Cincinnati’s defense looked ferocious last week, sacking Ben Roethlisberger four times and recording 17 total pressures. Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence has had multiple interceptions in every game this season, and he does not look ready to win a game of this magnitude on the road at this stage of his career.

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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.